Syracuse Orange vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Indiana's glass crashers test Syracuse's ball-secure rebuild in Indianapolis

The fight for extra possessions

Indiana and Syracuse both tore their rosters down to the studs this offseason. Neither has played anyone worth measuring yet. Monday night in Indianapolis is the first real test, and the clearest question it answers is which team gets more shots.

Indiana's new identity is physicality, and the early returns back it up. The Hoosiers have rebounded 44.3% of their own misses (34th nationally). They have forced turnovers on 25.0% of opponent possessions, 47th in the country.

Syracuse is built to take both weapons away. The Orange have turned it over on just 9.9% of possessions, eighth in Division I. They have also collected 83.3% of opponents' misses, which ranks 10th. Those figures came against New Haven and Central Connecticut, teams ranked 326th and 300th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), so treat them as a starting point rather than a verdict.

If the Orange hold onto the ball and keep Indiana to one shot, the game slows down. Syracuse plays at 65.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th of 364, and Gerry McNamara's team has shown no interest in a track meet.

Indiana's soft middle

The weak spot of Indiana's start has been its interior defense. Opponents have made 58.6% of their twos against the Hoosiers, which ranks 318th nationally, and that came against Eastern Illinois and Bellarmine.

That is a problem against a Syracuse team making 63.4% inside the arc. Luke Wilson, the App State transfer center, has been the finisher, shooting 75% from the field. Sadiq White Jr., the only returner in the Orange starting lineup, has given them a second big who rebounds and blocks shots.

Indiana's answer is volume from deep: 48.3% of its field goal attempts are threes. Syracuse's opponents have shot 25.6% from three, a figure unlikely to survive a guard group with Bryce Lindsay and Darren Harris in it.

Missing pieces, new faces

Syracuse will play without Aiden Tobiason, the Temple transfer who was expected to start. He hurt his hamstring in the UConn exhibition and has not played since, and McNamara confirmed after the Central Connecticut win that he won't face Indiana. On the other side, Indiana freshman guard Prince-Alexander Moody hurt his knee in practice before the opener, and Darian DeVries said he would be out for an extended period.

Almost everyone else is new. Syracuse brings back 15.6% of last season's minutes and Indiana 17.2%, so last season's records and ratings are a weak guide here.

Gavin Doty, who followed McNamara from Siena, has carried the Orange with 16 points and nine rebounds a game. Freshman point guard Ryan Moesch runs the offense, handing out 6 assists a game, but he has missed all six of his threes. McNamara has also coached through grief: his father, Gerard, died Oct. 31, two days before the opener. This is his first major non-conference game in charge.

Where the market sits

Indiana is a 5.5-point favorite, and the total is 148.0. The spread has moved a point toward the Hoosiers since our feed first saw it at -4.5, while the total has barely moved.

Indiana is 0-2 against the spread, failing to cover both games as a huge favorite, and both of its games went over. History favors the underdog: Syracuse leads the series 6-1, and the last meeting in 2021 needed two overtimes.

• Watch the glass early. Indiana second-chance points would test Syracuse's rebounding numbers.
• Watch Moesch's jumper. If defenders sag off him, Doty and Mark Morano will see crowded floors.
• Watch the paint. Syracuse's twos against Indiana's defense inside is the matchup most likely to keep the Orange close.