Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions prediction: Columbia's crash-the-glass offense tests Stonehill's rebuilt Skyhawks
The Lions grab nearly half their misses and rarely shoot threes, and Stonehill's new-look roster has to finish possessions it has not yet learned to protect.
Columbia Lions covered the closing spread (Stonehill Skyhawks +12.5). The game went under the closing total of 143.5.
| Spread | Columbia -13 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 143.5 |
- Columbia pounds the paint and the offensive glass while Stonehill's mostly new roster tries to survive turnovers and cold perimeter shooting.
- Columbia's offensive rebounding (48.5%, 10th) against a Stonehill defense that has cleaned its own glass at 79.7% (29th).
- Columbia is favored by 13.5 with a 145.5 total, after the line moved from 10.5 and the total from 144.5 since our feed first saw them; Stonehill covered as a 20.25-point underdog at Fordham.
Second chances decide it
Columbia has built its early identity on misses. The Lions have rebounded 48.5% of their own missed shots, 10th in Division I, and that is no fluke of a soft opener: they ranked 13th in offensive rebound rate last season too. Under second-year coach Kevin Hovde, this is a team that crashes.
Stonehill's answer is the one stat that has carried over through a full roster rebuild. The Skyhawks have grabbed 79.7% of opponents' misses, 29th nationally, and they ranked 31st in defensive rebound rate last season. If they hold that line, Columbia loses its easiest source of points.
The Lions also refuse to shoot from outside. Only 26.0% of their shots have been threes, 358th in the country, and they have made 61.9% of their twos (64th). Mason Ritter is the model: 90% from the field with 2.5 blocks a game at the other end.
A roster built in one summer
Chris Kraus, in his 13th season at Stonehill, is coaching a nearly new team. Players on this roster logged just 10.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's final adjusted net rating, 333rd in Division I, says little about this group. Hermann Koffi (now at App State) and Davante Hackett (Tennessee Tech) took most of the scoring with them.
The replacements arrived through the portal. Jack Medalie has led the team at 15.0 points a game with a 25.2% usage rate, and Florida A&M transfer Anquan Boldin Jr. has scored 12.0 a night off the bench. Le Moyne transfer Eli Greenberg has taken a heavy share of possessions and hit back-to-back threes in the second half at Fordham.
The Fordham game was a reminder of the gap: an 83-63 loss to a team ranked 167th in adjusted net rating, though the Skyhawks covered as a 20.25-point underdog.
Ball security under pressure
Stonehill has turned the ball over on 21.6% of its possessions, 312th nationally, a problem that followed the program from last season even as the names changed. Columbia's guards have taken the ball away. The Lions' steal rate of 14.1% ranks 72nd, and Hampton Sanders has averaged 2.5 steals while running the offense.
The Skyhawks also lean on the three without making it. They have made 26.9% from deep, 295th in the country. Starting guard Trenton Ruth, the top returner, went 1-for-8 from the field against Curry. Columbia's opponents have taken just 21.3% of their shots from three, the lowest share in Division I, so Stonehill may not find the open looks it wants anyway.
Columbia's new backcourt
The Lions lost Kenny Noland, last season's 17.1-point scorer, to Michigan, and an Ivy preview ranked them sixth and tied their ceiling to a freshman point guard. Josh Pratt has answered so far with 14.0 points a game. Gerard O'Keefe, who made 42.9% of his threes last season, adds the perimeter touch the offense otherwise lacks.
The opener was a warning. Columbia trailed Elon 28-40 at halftime and lost 84-71 at home. The 120-58 rout of Old Westbury inflates the season numbers. No injuries are known for either team heading into the game.
Where the number sits
Columbia is a 13.5-point favorite, and the line has moved from 10.5 since our feed first recorded it Monday morning, while the total has moved from 144.5 to 145.5. Both teams have pushed the pace early. Stonehill is at 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes after ranking 336th in pace last season, and Columbia sits 74th.
The early market record splits. Columbia failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite against Elon, while Stonehill covered as a 20.25-point underdog at Fordham. Both of those games went over. Stonehill heads to Texas Tech on Nov. 14, so this is its last tune-up before a much bigger stage.
Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Skyhawks ML | Lions ML | Skyhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +675 | -1100 | +13.5 (-118) | o143.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-105) | o143.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +650 | -1000 | +13.5 (-120) | o143.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +700 | -1200 | +13.5 (-120) | o143.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +650 | -1000 | +13 (-110) | o143.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +680 | -1100 | +12.5 (-102) | o143.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-105) | o143.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +650 | -1000 | +13 (-110) | o144 (-110) |
Key players
- Josh Pratt (Columbia): Has scored 14.0 points a game with a team-high 26.7% usage rate in his first two college games.
- Gerard O'Keefe (Columbia): Made 42.9% of his threes last season and is averaging 13.0 points so far.
- Mason Ritter (Columbia): Shooting 90% from the field with 2.5 blocks per game.
- Connor Igoe (Columbia): Averaging 7.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists as a frontcourt hub.
- Jack Medalie (Stonehill): Leads the team at 15.0 points per game on a 25.2% usage rate.
- Anquan Boldin Jr. (Stonehill): The Florida A&M transfer is scoring 12.0 points a game off the bench but has shot 44.4% at the line.
- Eli Greenberg (Stonehill): The Le Moyne transfer carries a 25.7% usage rate and has made 42.9% of his threes.
- Trenton Ruth (Stonehill): The top returner is shooting 16.7% from three through two games.
Numbers that matter
| Columbia offensive rebound rate | 48.5% | 10th in Division I, and the Lions ranked 13th last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Stonehill defensive rebound rate | 79.7% | 29th nationally, the stat best positioned to blunt Columbia's crashing. |
| Stonehill turnover rate | 21.6% | 312th nationally against a Columbia defense ranked 72nd in steal rate. |
| Stonehill returning minutes | 10.4% | Makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for the Skyhawks. |
| Spread | -10.5 | Columbia's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions: quick answers
What was the final score of Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions?
Stonehill Skyhawks 55, Columbia Lions 75 (final). Columbia Lions covered the closing spread (Stonehill Skyhawks +12.5). The game went under the closing total of 143.5.
Who is favored in Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions?
Columbia is favored by 13 points (Columbia -13).
What is the over/under for Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions?
The total is 143.5 points.
When is Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Stonehill Skyhawks vs Columbia Lions?
Yes: Stonehill Skyhawks opened +10.5 and is now +12.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 143.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).