South Carolina Upstate Spartans vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers prediction: Two cold-shooting rebuilds, and Coastal Carolina is laying 9.5 points

Two rosters built from scratch

Coastal Carolina's season so far is a one-point home loss to Eastern Michigan and a 113-52 beating at No. 2 Duke. USC Upstate arrives just as winless and just as new. Neither team looks much like the one that played last season, which makes this Monday night in Conway a first real read on two rebuilt programs.

Upstate's current roster played only 7.2% of the Spartans' minutes last season, so last season's 13-19 record tells you almost nothing. Coastal brings back more, 20.7% of last season's minutes, but 12 of its 15 players are newcomers. The three holdovers, DaJohn Craig, Derrick Green and Tristan Thompson, were all reserves.

Coastal runs through Trey Perry, the Miami (Ohio) transfer. He leads the team at 17.0 points a game and uses 37% of possessions when he plays, a heavy load for someone who came off the bench last season. The efficiency hasn't followed yet: his effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) sits at 41.2. Darius Washington III, from Kennesaw State, has missed all seven of his threes.

Upstate spreads it around more. Jalyn Patterson has made 5 of 9 from deep, Ries Naugle averages 14.0 points, and Alessandro Perotti posted 18 points and nine rebounds against South Carolina State. Delaware State transfer Miles Webb had a double-double at East Carolina.

Where the shots fall

Both offenses have been cold from three. Coastal is making 23.9% of its threes, 336th of 364, and Upstate is barely better at 24.4%. Upstate's defense hasn't stopped the three either, with opponents hitting 42.3%, which ranks 344th. Coastal's defensive shooting numbers are swamped by the Duke game and say little about this matchup.

The clearer edge sits at the rim. Coastal's block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) of 17.7% ranks 37th, with Caleb Middleton swatting 1.5 shots a game in 17 minutes. That matters against an Upstate team that has been far better inside than out, making 56.3% of its twos. Coastal's own interior scoring has been the problem: it is shooting 43.6% on twos, 332nd.

Upstate's giveaway problem

The Spartans have been careless. Their turnover rate, the share of possessions that end in a giveaway, is 24.1%, 340th in the country. Upstate also rarely takes the ball away, forcing turnovers on 11.7% of possessions, 353rd.

Coastal isn't built to punish that, since it ranks 295th in forced turnover rate. But in a game this likely to be decided by empty trips, every Upstate giveaway is a possession the Spartans can't afford.

One caution on fouls: Coastal opponents have earned free throws at a rate that ranks 352nd, a figure inflated by Duke's parade to the line. Upstate's free throw rate ranks 150th, but the Spartans shoot 68.2% once they get there.

What the number says

Coastal is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5, and neither has moved since the line first appeared Monday morning. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Coastal 252nd in net efficiency and Upstate 291st, which roughly fits a home favorite of this size, but both teams have changed too much to lean on that.

The early results are muddy. Coastal failed to cover as a 1.5-point favorite against Eastern Michigan. Upstate covered as a 15.5-point underdog at East Carolina, then lost at home to South Carolina State as a 3.5-point favorite, against an opponent ranked 359th in adjusted net efficiency. Both teams play quickly, near 73 possessions per 40 minutes.

Upstate also won the last meeting, 85-78 in overtime in December 2025, though few players from either side remain from that game.