South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars prediction: South Carolina State's pressure defense tests Chicago State's shaky ball security
The Cougars open at home with an almost entirely new roster and a turnover habit, against a Bulldogs team that has lived on steals through a 2-0 start.
South Carolina St Bulldogs covered the closing spread (South Carolina St Bulldogs +1.5). The game went over the closing total of 144.5.
| Spread | Chicago State -2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Expect a loose, foul-heavy game between two poor shooting teams, decided by which side wastes fewer possessions.
- Chicago State's ball handlers, led by Mike Price, against DeShaun Jackson Jr. and a Bulldogs defense forcing turnovers at the 13th-highest rate.
- Chicago State is a 2-point favorite, down from 4.5 when we first saw the game this morning, though the Cougars rank 346th in turnover rate.
Chicago State's ball-security problem
Chicago State plays its first home game of the season tonight with a roster that is almost entirely new and a habit of giving the ball away. South Carolina State arrives with a defense built to take it. If the Cougars can't protect the ball at Jones Convocation Center, laying points at home won't feel comfortable.
Through two games the Bulldogs force turnovers on 28.6% of opponent possessions, 13th in Division I. Their steal rate (steals per opponent possession) ranks 27th. Those figures include a 94-55 rout of Morris College, so read them as a direction more than a settled fact. DeShaun Jackson Jr. drives the pressure off the bench, averaging 3.5 steals a game, and Jayden Pretty adds 3.0.
Chicago State gives the ball away on 25.0% of its possessions, 346th of 364. Some of that came in a blowout at Texas, but the offense also assists on just 35.4% of its made baskets, 353rd. That points to a lot of one-on-one play, the kind of possession a gambling defense feeds on.
Second chances for the Bulldogs
The Bulldogs grab 42.6% of their own misses, 49th nationally. Chicago State's defensive rebound rate ranks 325th. South Carolina State also carries more size, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.5 inches against Chicago State's 76.4.
That matters because neither team shoots well. Every extra shot the Bulldogs earn on the glass helps make up for an offense that has hit only 43.4% of its twos.
Two offenses hunting for a jumper
South Carolina State's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 45.0%, 313th. Noah Treadwell is the outside threat. He is 7 of 23 from three on the season but hit six threes on his way to 18 points against USC Upstate.
Chicago State is worse from deep, making 24.2% of its threes, 332nd. Mike Price carries the offense with a 36.1% usage rate, the share of possessions he finishes while on the floor. He scored 21 against Incarnate Word, but it took him 19 shots to get there.
Expect whistles. Both defenses send opponents to the line often, with Chicago State ranking 324th in opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) and South Carolina State 315th.
Rebuilt rosters, new home floor
Last season's numbers offer little here. Chicago State returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes, with guard Malek Robinson the lone returner of note, and second-year coach Landon Bussie is working mostly with transfers such as Price and Bryan Akanmu. South Carolina State, under Erik Martin, brings back 29.6%, led by Treadwell and center Teon Tindal.
Both teams finished last season near the bottom of the opponent-adjusted ratings, with the Bulldogs 358th in net efficiency and the Cougars 337th. The last meeting in our data went to South Carolina State, 78-55, in February 2024.
Where the number sits
Chicago State is favored by 2 with a total of 145.25. The line has moved from Chicago State -4.5 to -2 since our feed first saw the game this morning, and the total has dropped from 148.5 to 145.25. Both teams covered as road underdogs last week: the Bulldogs won outright at USC Upstate as 3.5-point dogs, and the Cougars beat Incarnate Word as 8.5-point dogs.
The Upstate game stayed under a total of 148.5. South Carolina State plays fast, at 77 possessions per 40 minutes, but two inefficient offenses and a steady stream of turnovers could cut into the scoring.
What to watch - Chicago State's turnover count in the first 10 minutes - Bulldogs offensive rebounds when Treadwell's threes miss - How many of Price's shots come late in the shot clock
South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars line movement and odds
| Book | Bulldogs ML | Cougars ML | Bulldogs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 | +2.5 (-118) | o144.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +114 | -148 | +1.5 (+100) | o144.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +114 | -135 | +1.5 (-102) | o144.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 | +2.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 | +2 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +114 | -137 | +1.5 (-102) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -145 | +1.5 (+100) | o144.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Noah Treadwell (South Carolina State): He leads the team at 12.5 points per game and has taken 23 threes in two games.
- DeShaun Jackson Jr. (South Carolina State): He averages 3.5 steals and 4.5 assists in 25.5 minutes off the bench.
- Teon Tindal (South Carolina State): He is shooting 53.8% from the field with 5.0 rebounds in 17 minutes a game.
- Jayden Pretty (South Carolina State): He posts 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals a game with a 27.2% usage rate.
- Mike Price (Chicago State): The transfer from Cal State Bakersfield averages 16.5 points with a 36.1% usage rate.
- Will Lovings-Watts (Chicago State): He averages 2.5 steals but is shooting 35% from the field.
- Kameron Foman (Chicago State): He has made 80% of his shots and pulls 5.0 rebounds a game.
- Bryan Akanmu (Chicago State): He averaged 6.2 points for Wagner last season and is shooting 57.1% this season.
Numbers that matter
| SC State forced turnover rate | 28.6% | It ranks 13th in Division I and is the Bulldogs' best weapon. |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago State turnover rate | 25.0% | It ranks 346th of 364, a weak spot against a pressing defense. |
| SC State offensive rebound % | 42.6% | It ranks 49th, facing a Cougars team 325th in defensive rebounding. |
| Chicago State 3-point % | 24.2% | It ranks 332nd, which limits how quickly the Cougars can stretch a lead. |
| Chicago State returning minutes | 7.7% | So little is back that last season's numbers say almost nothing about this team. |
South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars: quick answers
What was the final score of South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars?
South Carolina St Bulldogs 82, Chicago St Cougars 67 (final). South Carolina St Bulldogs covered the closing spread (South Carolina St Bulldogs +1.5). The game went over the closing total of 144.5.
Who is favored in South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars?
Chicago State is favored by 2 points (Chicago State -2).
What is the over/under for South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars?
Yes: South Carolina St Bulldogs opened +5.5 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 150.5 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).