North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers prediction: North Dakota's frozen jump shot runs into Clemson's red-hot new backcourt
The Fighting Hawks have made 12.5% of their threes, and Clemson's transfer-heavy guards have barely missed, which explains a 21.5-point spread better than any name on either roster.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks covered the closing spread (North Dakota Fighting Hawks +23.5). The game went over the closing total of 154.5.
| Spread | Clemson -24 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Clemson should own the arc and the defensive glass. North Dakota's path is the free-throw line and a late push like its Winthrop comeback.
- Ace Buckner, averaging 23.0 points and 8 of 15 from three, against a North Dakota defense allowing 38.9% from deep.
- Clemson is a 24-point favorite after the line moved from 21.5 to 24 since our feed first saw it, but the Tigers are 0-2 against the spread.
A canyon at the 3-point line
Two games in, North Dakota has the worst 3-point percentage in Division I: 12.5%, ranked 364th of 364. That drags its effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) to 39.7%, 345th nationally. The cold spell runs through the one shooter who should be fixing it. Zach Kraft made 39.2% of his threes last season and is 1 of 11 so far.
Clemson sits at the other end. The Tigers are hitting 41.2% from deep, 45th in the country, and two guards are doing most of it. Buckner has made 8 of 15 threes. TCU transfer Liutauras Lelevicius is 7 of 10, including 5 of 7 against American. North Dakota hasn't stopped anyone from outside either: opponents are making 38.9% of their threes, 324th nationally. Some of Clemson's heat will cool. A gap this wide still points to a lopsided night in shot quality.
Two rosters built from scratch
Treat last season's numbers as a rough sketch. North Dakota brings back only 20.3% of last season's minutes. Leading scorer Greyson Uelmen, who averaged 17.1 points last season, left for Northern Iowa. Le Moyne transfer Samuel Hincapie has taken over the scoring load. He poured in 24 points at Winthrop, where he faced George Natsvlishvili, another former Fighting Hawk now on the Eagles' roster.
Clemson returns 28.4% of its minutes and lost leading scorer RJ Godfrey to Arizona. The Tigers are also short in the frontcourt. Brad Brownell said in late October that the team was planning for Carter Welling (knee) to miss all of non-conference play. Zac Foster tore the ACL in the same knee again in October. Undated reports since then say he has returned to limited practice. Samford transfer Dylan Faulkner has filled the inside role well, averaging 14.0 points and 8.5 rebounds on 66.7% shooting.
Where North Dakota can stay close
Where North Dakota can stay close The Fighting Hawks' best weapon has been the foul line. Their free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) is 49.6%, 54th nationally, and they make 78.3% of those tries. That is how they survived Winthrop: down 45-42 at the half, they won 93-90.
Clemson's defense takes that weapon away. Opponents' free throw rate against the Tigers is 18.1%, 16th nationally. The glass looks similar. Clemson grabs 82.5% of opponents' misses, 13th in the country, so North Dakota's second chances from a 35.7% offensive rebound rate shrink. If the visitors can't shoot, reach the line or win extra possessions, their margin for error disappears.
A big number, sloppy covers
A big number, sloppy covers The line has moved from Clemson -21.5 to Clemson -24, and the total has gone from 153.5 to 154.5. The Tigers have won both games without covering either. They led Stetson 49-24 at halftime, then won by only 13 as 22.5-point favorites. They beat American by nine while laying 15.75.
Both Clemson games went over, and the defense explains why. The Tigers are allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions this season, 255th nationally. Last season they finished 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Clemson plays slowly, with a pace that ranks 302nd. That has capped possessions so far without keeping the second-half scoring down.
North Dakota's one look at a high-major team went badly: an 85-50 loss at Minnesota, where it failed to cover as a 26.25-point underdog.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Hawks ML | Tigers ML | Hawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2200 | -10000 | +23.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +23.5 (-108) | o154.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +2000 | -6500 | +23.5 (-108) | o154.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +23.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2800 | -9000 | +24 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +3000 | -10000 | +23.5 (-108) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +23.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +23.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Samuel Hincapie (North Dakota): He leads the team at 14.5 points per game and scored 24 on 9-of-15 shooting at Winthrop.
- Luke Winkel (North Dakota): He averages 10.0 points and 4.0 assists, and he had 16 points and 6 assists in the Winthrop comeback.
- Zach Kraft (North Dakota): A 39.2% 3-point shooter last season, he is 1 of 11 from deep so far.
- Ace Buckner (Clemson): He leads Clemson at 23.0 points per game with a 31.1% usage rate, the share of possessions he finishes.
- Liutauras Lelevicius (Clemson): He has made 7 of 10 threes and is also pulling down 8.0 rebounds per game.
- Dylan Faulkner (Clemson): He is shooting 66.7% from the field while averaging 8.5 rebounds.
- Cole Certa (Clemson): He shot 36.7% from three at Notre Dame last season but is 3 of 13 so far.
Numbers that matter
| North Dakota 3-point % | 12.5% | It ranks last in Division I, 364th of 364. |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson defensive rebound % | 82.5% | The figure ranks 13th nationally and limits a North Dakota team that has relied on second chances. |
| Clemson opponent free throw rate | 18.1% | It ranks 16th and blunts North Dakota's top-60 ability to draw fouls. |
| Spread | -21.5 | The line hasn't moved, and Clemson has failed to cover in both of its games. |
| North Dakota returning minutes | 20.3% | So little returns that last season's team numbers say little about this group. |
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers: quick answers
What was the final score of North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers?
North Dakota Fighting Hawks 77, Clemson Tigers 92 (final). North Dakota Fighting Hawks covered the closing spread (North Dakota Fighting Hawks +23.5). The game went over the closing total of 154.5.
Who is favored in North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers?
Clemson is favored by 24 points (Clemson -24).
What is the over/under for North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Clemson Tigers?
Yes: North Dakota Fighting Hawks opened +21.5 and is now +23.5, and the total moved from 153.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).