Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction: Marshall's fouling habit could send Ohio State to the line all night

A trip to the line

Ohio State spent its first week finding out what nine newcomers look like together. So far that means a team that scores well and defends poorly. Marshall arrives with even less continuity and one habit that could define tonight's game: it puts opponents on the foul line.

Marshall's opponents have a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 43.8%, which ranks 286th in Division I. Ohio State's offense is built to draw those fouls. Its own free throw rate is 45.7%, 85th nationally. Then the Buckeyes cash in, making 88.7% of their attempts, the third-best mark in the country. Every whistle stops the clock, slows Marshall's preferred pace and adds to a lead. The Herd get little back at the other end, because their offense ranks 336th in free throw rate.

Marshall's guards need to shoot

Marshall's best chance to keep this close is from the perimeter. The Herd have hit 38.9% of their threes, 69th nationally, and Bryce Slay went 5-of-10 from deep in the loss to Toledo. Ohio State's perimeter defense is the soft spot in its early profile. Opponents have made 36.4% of their threes, which ranks 292nd, and BYU used that to pull away in the opener. If Marshall's shooters stay hot, the margin stays manageable. If they cool off, the Herd don't have a reliable inside game to fall back on, and Andrija Jelavic is protecting the rim for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State keeps its possessions

Marshall's defense does not take the ball away. It forces turnovers on 10.0% of opponent possessions, 360th of 364 teams. That means Ohio State should get a shot up almost every time down the floor, and it adds second chances by grabbing 39.7% of its own misses (81st).

That battle on the glass is where Marshall pushes back. The Herd have rebounded 80.0% of opponents' misses, 26th nationally, the one strength on a defense that otherwise gives a lot away. If Marshall can limit Ohio State to one shot per trip, it takes away the clearest path to a blowout.

Two rosters starting over

Both teams are largely new. Marshall returns 25.7% of last season's minutes, and Ohio State returns 33.4%. That makes last season's numbers a loose guide. For reference, Ohio State finished last season 27th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), while Marshall finished 183rd.

John Mobley Jr. has moved past his preseason ankle scare. He played in the Nov. 2 opener at BYU and is averaging 19.5 points. Amare Bynum and the Kentucky transfer Jelavic give Ohio State frontcourt scoring. Marshall leans on Slay, who averages 21.0 points, and on Noah Otshudi, a preseason all-Sun Belt first-teamer who averages 19.0.

The number keeps climbing

Ohio State is favored by 25.75, a tick above the first line our feed recorded. The total has moved more, rising to 162.5 from 158.5, a sign the market expects both teams' poor defenses to show up. Covering big numbers has been a problem for the Buckeyes, who are 0-2 against the spread. That includes a comfortable home win over Youngstown State that still fell short of a similar line.