Howard Bison vs Pennsylvania Quakers prediction: Howard's relentless offensive rebounding tests Penn in the Palestra opener

The glass decides it

Penn's season began with a 112-70 loss at No. 3 Illinois, a night that says more about Illinois than about the team picked first in the Ivy League preseason poll. Now Fran McCaffery's second Penn team plays its first game at the Palestra, at 6:30 p.m. ET Monday, against a Howard program that swept the MEAC regular season and tournament last year. Whoever controls the misses probably controls the night.

Howard has grabbed 43.8% of its own misses through two games (offensive rebound rate), 38th in Division I. That isn't new. Last season's Bison ranked 28th in the same stat, and the habit survived a roster that lost leading scorer Bryce Harris.

Penn's opener offers little comfort. Illinois pounded the Quakers on the boards, leaving their defensive rebound rate at 53.1%, 357th nationally. Last season Penn ranked 235th there, so Illinois probably shows the worst case rather than the norm. Even the normal version, though, is a middling rebounding team facing one of the best crashing teams in the country.

The door swings both ways. Howard's own defensive glass has been porous, at 54.4% and 355th, which gives Penn's forwards a path to extra possessions of their own.

Who carries each team

Penn's offense runs through TJ Power, the all-league forward who averaged 16.4 points last season. He managed 6 against Illinois, and the Quakers can't win many games with that line. Michael Zanoni was the bright spot, hitting 4 of 6 threes, and Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed arrives with preseason buzz after a big scrimmage. Penn returns seven of its top nine scorers, so last season's identity should matter more here than one ugly night in Champaign.

Howard leans hard on Cedric Taylor III, whose usage rate of 33.9% means a third of Howard's possessions end in his hands. He scored 27 against Alcorn State. Cam Gillus has been the efficient one, making 6 of 10 threes while playing nearly every minute. Alex Cotton is the cold spot. Alex Cotton, who took 194 threes last season, has made just 2 of 13 from deep this fall.

Fouls and the free throw line

Howard built last season around getting to the line, ranking 7th nationally in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Penn was a disciplined defense last season that rarely sent opponents there, ranking 34th in the opponent version of that stat.

The catch for the Bison is what happens once they arrive. Howard is making 59.6% of its free throws this season. In a game priced inside two possessions, missed free throws late could be the difference between a cover and a near miss.

Reading the number

Penn is a 5.5-point home favorite, and neither the spread nor the 157.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded the game. Howard is 1-1 against the spread, covering as a favorite against Alcorn State and losing to Yale as an underdog.

The total hinges on tempo. Penn's pace ranks 2nd nationally, but that number comes from an Illinois track meet. Howard plays slowly by this season's standard, ranking 317th, and its offensive rebounding extends possessions rather than adding them. If Howard dictates the speed, the total looks high. If Penn's shooters get loose at home, the Quakers have the firepower to push it.