Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction: FGCU's three-point barrage tests Georgia's porous perimeter in Athens

An offense built behind the arc

Florida Gulf Coast took UCF to overtime a week ago and lost 96-95 on the road. Tonight the Eagles bring that same nerve to Stegeman Coliseum, where Georgia has won 38 straight nonconference home games. The game turns on whether a team that lives on threes can keep shooting its way into a fight.

FGCU takes 51.2% of its shots from three, 42nd-most in Division I, and makes 40.6% of them. That is a sharp break from last season, when the Eagles hit 32.4% from deep. Darren Williams, the one rotation regular back from that team, has started this season 8 of 15 from beyond the arc.

Georgia's defense has allowed 38.7% shooting from three, which ranks 323rd. The catch is how little it has been tested: opponents have taken only 28.4% of their shots from deep, a rate that ranks 351st. N.C. Central and Presbyterian attacked inside, where the Bulldogs have held teams to 44.9% on twos. FGCU will make Georgia guard the perimeter for 40 minutes.

Georgia wins the possession game

If FGCU's shooting keeps it close, Georgia's ball security is how the Bulldogs pull away. Georgia has turned it over on just 10.0% of its possessions, ninth nationally. FGCU coughs it up at a 19.1% rate, 234th.

The pressure runs the other way too. Georgia's steal rate of 15.6% ranks 44th, while FGCU forces turnovers at a rate that ranks 322nd. Freddie Dilione V, the Penn State transfer, is averaging 2.5 steals.

Georgia also crashes its own glass, grabbing 39.7% of its misses, 79th in the country. More shots and fewer giveaways is the cleanest path to a lopsided score.

Two rebuilt rosters

FGCU returns just 19.4% of last season's minutes, so its 16-18 record a year ago says little about this group. The newcomers are carrying it. Bryson Lucas, a transfer from Division II PennWest California, posted 25 points and 10 rebounds in his debut at UCF. Justin Houser, the program's first 7-footer, averaged 1.4 points at Penn State last season and is scoring 17.5 a game now.

Georgia kept more of its core, including Blue Cain, Kanon Catchings, Kareem Stagg and Marcus "Smurf" Millender. Cain leads the team at 17.5 points per game. Catchings has started cold from three at 3 of 12, though he shot 37.6% from deep last season. The Bulldogs finished last season 31st in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), while FGCU sat 243rd.

No Georgia injuries were listed as of Nov. 7, and nothing has surfaced on FGCU's availability.

A big number and the free-throw line

Georgia is a 23-point favorite with a total of 163, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game. The Bulldogs have not covered yet. They beat N.C. Central 78-62 as 40-point favorites and Presbyterian 91-77 as 24.25-point favorites.

Free throws could shape the final margin. Georgia gets to the line often, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 46.0%, 78th nationally. But it converts only 63.8% of its free throws, 274th. FGCU shoots 87.8% at the line, sixth in the country. If Georgia has to foul late, FGCU has the shooters to hold onto points.