Florida A&M Rattlers vs UAB Blazers prediction: UAB's trips to the foul line could bury Florida A&M early

A free-throw game in Birmingham

A free-throw game in Birmingham Two games into a rebuilt season, UAB has found one thing it does very well: getting to the line and making the shots once it's there. The Blazers' free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 54.7%, 26th in Division I, and they've made 82.8% of those attempts, 18th nationally. For a team shooting 30.4% from three, that's the reliable offense.

Florida A&M is a poor opponent for that style. The Rattlers' defense allows a 40.0% free throw rate, 240th nationally, and their 3.5% block rate ranks 346th, so drivers have little reason to fear the paint. At the other end, Florida A&M has made only 57.8% of its free throws, 339th in the country. If this turns into a whistle-heavy night, the gap at the line compounds every trip.

UAB also keeps opponents off the line. Its defense allows a 22.0% free throw rate, 36th nationally, which takes away a source of easy points for a Florida A&M offense that needs them.

Kempson and Williford carry everything

Florida A&M's offense runs through two newcomers. Jaden Kempson, a UAlbany transfer, is averaging 24.0 points on 50% three-point shooting. He shot 29.5% from deep at UAlbany last season, so the hot start is worth watching. Daisean Williford, who came from Oregon State, adds 20.5 points a game and has hit 8 of 17 threes.

They nearly stole the Fort Valley State game on their own. Williford scored 22 and Kempson 21, and Williford's three with about five seconds left cut the deficit to 73-70 before the Rattlers lost 75-70. Beyond them, the help is thin: Antonio Baker Jr. shot 1 of 6 in that game, and no other rotation player has an offensive rating near 100.

UAB's guards haven't found their shot. Deuce Jones, the Saint Joseph's transfer, carries a 28.2% usage rate but has shot 28.6% from the field, and he went 4 of 14 against Nicholls. T.J. Caldwell has been steadier off the bench at 11.0 points a game.

Elyzee and the second chances

Jeremy Elyzee, a transfer from SE Louisiana, grabbed a career-high 14 rebounds, seven of them offensive, in the 70-63 win over Nicholls. That's the matchup to watch. Florida A&M's defensive rebound rate is 63.2%, 311th nationally, despite a roster that averages about 6-7 with five players 6-10 or taller.

Possessions could swing the other way too. Florida A&M turns the ball over on 24.5% of possessions, 343rd in the country. UAB, though, forces turnovers on only 11.2% of possessions, 354th, so the Rattlers' sloppiness may go unpunished more than usual. Expect a quick game: Florida A&M plays at 75.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 68th nationally.

Last season tells you little

Last season tells you little Both rosters were remade. UAB returns just 9.7% of last season's minutes, and Salim London is the only notable returner. Florida A&M brings back 28.2%. Last season's final ratings had UAB 112th and Florida A&M 320th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but those teams are mostly gone.

The new versions have shaky starts. UAB lost 99-78 to McNeese, then beat Nicholls as a 15.25-point favorite without covering. Florida A&M lost 112-69 to Florida State and then dropped its home game to Fort Valley State. Charlie Ward, in his second season, is working with a largely rebuilt roster.

Andy Kennedy's Blazers are 13-1 against SWAC schools, and this is the first meeting between the programs since 2013. The line has moved from UAB -16.5 to UAB -18.5, and the total has moved from 154.5 to 156.5. No injuries have been reported for either team.