Eastern Illinois Panthers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction: Eastern Illinois can't find a three, and Notre Dame lives behind the arc

A shooting gap with no floor

Eastern Illinois arrives at Purcell Pavilion on Monday night, 7 p.m. ET, as the end of a brutal opening road trip. It has already played Indiana and Iowa, and it has yet to find any perimeter offense. The Panthers have made 14.3% of their threes, 363rd of 364 Division I teams. They also take a smaller share of their shots from deep than any team in the country.

The defense hasn't covered for it. Opponents post a 66.8% effective field goal percentage against Eastern Illinois (that's field goal percentage with threes counted 1.5 times), which ranks dead last. Those are two games against Big Ten teams, so the numbers will settle, but the shape of the problem is clear.

Notre Dame is the wrong opponent for that problem. The Irish have hit 42.9% from three, 32nd nationally, and nearly half their shots come from deep. Brady Koehler is 5 of 8 from three, and Braeden Shrewsberry has made eight of his 18 attempts. When a team shoots that well against a defense that lets shooters through, the margin builds in a hurry.

Possessions slip away

The second way this game can get out of hand is the turnover count. Eastern Illinois gives the ball away on 25.9% of its possessions, 354th in the country. Notre Dame's defense forces turnovers at a 23.5% rate, 70th, and its guards have been active in the passing lanes.

Braeden Smith, the Gonzaga transfer, has set the tone. He has 13 assists against two turnovers through two games and has averaged three steals. Every Panthers giveaway is a possession they can't spare, because their offense has rarely scored when it does keep the ball.

A rebuilt Panthers roster

Last season's numbers are a weak guide for Eastern Illinois. Only four players return under coach Marty Simmons, and those holdovers played just 10.1% of last season's minutes. That stout defense from a year ago left with the players who departed, including guard Meechie White, now at Indiana State.

The new group's best production has come from forward Tanner Vogel. He posted 11 points and 11 rebounds at Iowa and is averaging 9.0 rebounds in 18 minutes a night off the bench. Demar Burton, a transfer from Tiffin, handles the biggest share of the offense. JT Elder and Shane Sims both missed time with injuries last season, and there has been no word on either this season.

Notre Dame's new pieces fit early

Micah Shrewsberry's fourth Irish team lost its top guards and was picked to miss the ACC tournament. Then it opened by beating Villanova 74-72 in Rome as a 7.25-point underdog and routed Mercyhurst at home.

The transfers are carrying real weight. Penn transfer Ethan Roberts has a 73.3% effective field goal mark. Winthrop center Logan Duncomb was listed day-to-day in a report from Oct. 23, but he has played in both games since, and no injury report has surfaced for Monday. Sophomore center Tommy Ahneman, who missed all of last season after knee surgery, has also been back on the floor.

Where the number sits

The market has moved slightly toward the Irish, from 27.5 to 28. The total has climbed to 141.75 from 140.5. Eastern Illinois covered as a 34.5-point underdog at Indiana and then did not cover at Iowa. All four of these teams' games so far have gone over.

Tempo could limit how high the score climbs. Notre Dame plays at 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 317th in pace, so this won't be a track meet. The only recent meeting ended Notre Dame 78, Eastern Illinois 58 last November, though both rosters have changed heavily since.