Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction: Cleveland State's brand-new Vikings bring a broken defense to Bowling Green
The Falcons open the Stroh Center against a Horizon roster with no returning minutes and a defense that has been shredded early, and Bowling Green's own free throw problem is the main thing standing between it and a big margin.
Bowling Green Falcons covered the closing spread (Cleveland St Vikings +12.5). The game went over the closing total of 153.5.
| Spread | Bowling Green -13.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Bowling Green should score freely against a Vikings defense allowing 65.7% effective shooting; shaky Falcon free throws are the main drag on the margin.
- Rayvon Griffith, ending 38.3% of Cleveland State possessions, against a Falcons defense that held Georgia State to 37.9% on twos.
- Bowling Green has moved from -11 to -13 since our feed first saw this game; Cleveland State already failed to cover at Missouri.
A roster with no past
Cleveland State returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Nobody who played for last season's 11-22 team is back, and the Vikings carry 14 new faces. That turns last season's numbers into background noise, including a final adjusted defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) that ranked 364th of 365. The Horizon preseason poll picked this group eleventh.
The new version runs through Rayvon Griffith, a Kent State transfer who averaged 4.0 points there last season. Through two games he is scoring 23.5 a night with a usage rate of 38.3%, the share of possessions he ends while on the floor. His range so far is wide: 5 of 17 shooting at Missouri, then 34 points against Michigan-Dearborn. Forward Dre Jones has been the efficient piece, making 62.5% of his shots, and Micah Bays gave the Vikings 18 off the bench in the home win. Second-year coach Rob Summers has started the same five in both games.
Where the Falcons get their points
The early Viking defense has been the worst part of the profile. Opponents own a 65.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), which ranks 360th of 364. They are making 67.7% of their twos, 356th nationally.
One game skews that badly. Missouri led 56-18 at halftime on the way to a 111-50 win, and those numbers will settle as the schedule softens. Still, nothing in this roster has shown it can stop dribble penetration yet.
Bowling Green arrives with a hot hand. Zach Howell hit 6 of 10 threes and scored 28 in the opener at Georgia State, and the Falcons shot 38.1% from deep as a team. Josiah Shackelford, the most experienced returner at 11.3 points per game last season, went just 4 of 15 in that win, so there is room for the Falcon offense to improve. Bowling Green also grabbed 81.1% of available defensive rebounds against Georgia State, 22nd nationally, which matters against a Viking team that has leaned on twos rather than threes.
The free throw drag
Bowling Green lives at the line, and that is both its edge and its leak. Its free throw rate of 47.3% (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 71st, but it made only 53.8% of those tries, 354th in the country.
Tristan Beckford is the extreme case. The South Florida transfer went 5 of 6 from the floor in the opener and still finished with a 22.2% mark at the line. If Cleveland State fouls its way through the second half, a margin that looks safe can stall at the stripe. Bowling Green survived it at Georgia State, winning 76-73 as an underdog, but a double-digit spread leaves less room for empty trips.
Rest, an opener and the number
The schedule favors the hosts. Bowling Green has had a week off since its opener and plays its first home game, while Cleveland State is on short rest and starting a run of four straight games away from home. Todd Simon, in his fourth season, also has more continuity: 20.3% of last season's minutes are back, thin but not zero.
The market has leaned the same way. Bowling Green opened in our feed at -11 and now sits at -13, and the total has ticked up from 156.5 to 157.5. Cleveland State failed to cover a 26.5-point number at Missouri, and that game cleared its total easily. Bowling Green's opener stayed under. The one prior meeting in recent memory, in December 2019, went to the Falcons at the Stroh Center, 72-58.
Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons line movement and odds
| Book | Vikings ML | Falcons ML | Vikings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +650 | -1000 | +13.5 (-118) | o153.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +525 | -835 | +12.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +650 | -1000 | +12.5 (-105) | o153.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +700 | -1200 | +12.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-115) | o154 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +740 | -1250 | +13.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +525 | -850 | +12.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +650 | -1000 | +12.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Rayvon Griffith (Cleveland State): The Kent State transfer is averaging 23.5 points on a 38.3% usage rate after scoring 4.0 per game there last season.
- Dre Jones (Cleveland State): Jones is shooting 62.5% from the floor and pulling down 7.0 rebounds per game.
- Micah Bays (Cleveland State): Bays scored 18 with 5 assists against Michigan-Dearborn in 23 minutes off the bench.
- Zach Howell (Bowling Green): Howell scored 28 at Georgia State on 6 of 10 shooting from three.
- Josiah Shackelford (Bowling Green): The top returner averaged 11.3 points last season and posted 12 points and 9 rebounds in the opener despite 4 of 15 shooting.
- Tristan Beckford (Bowling Green): Beckford made 5 of 6 field goals in the opener but shot 22.2% at the free throw line.
Numbers that matter
| Cleveland State opponent eFG% | 65.7% | Ranks 360th of 364, inflated by the Missouri blowout but a warning sign for the Viking defense. |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland State returning minutes | 0.0% | No player from last season's roster is back, so last season's team numbers say little. |
| Bowling Green free throw % | 53.8% | Ranks 354th, a real drag for a team whose free throw rate ranks 71st. |
| Rayvon Griffith usage | 38.3% | The Vikings' offense runs through one transfer guard to an unusual degree. |
| Current spread | -13.0 | Bowling Green has moved from -11 since our feed first recorded the game. |
Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons: quick answers
What was the final score of Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons?
Cleveland St Vikings 79, Bowling Green Falcons 95 (final). Bowling Green Falcons covered the closing spread (Cleveland St Vikings +12.5). The game went over the closing total of 153.5.
Who is favored in Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons?
Bowling Green is favored by 13.5 points (Bowling Green -13.5).
What is the over/under for Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Cleveland St Vikings vs Bowling Green Falcons?
Yes: Cleveland St Vikings opened +11.5 and is now +12.5, and the total moved from 157.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).