Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Pacers' patched-up backcourt must survive Denver's grabby hands in Mexico City
With Tyrese Haliburton rehabbing in Indianapolis, Indiana's thin guard group faces a Nuggets defense that suddenly lives in passing lanes, at 7,350 feet.
| Spread | Denver Nuggets -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 229.5 |
- Denver's shotmaking should control the half court; Indiana needs paint points and clean possessions to stay within range without Haliburton.
- Andrew Nembhard against Denver's ball pressure: the Nuggets rank 3rd in steal rate, and Indiana's backup point guards are hurt or untested.
- Denver is a 7.5-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw the game; Indiana's games have gone over the total just 3 times in 9 this season.
Indiana is out of guards
The NBA's Mexico City Game hands Indiana a problem it hasn't solved all fall: who handles the ball. Tyrese Haliburton stayed in Indianapolis to rehab his left hamstring because, as Rick Carlisle put it, it was "better for his rehab," and he is expected to miss at least another week. T.J. McConnell made the trip and is questionable for the first time this season after missing every game with his own hamstring strain. Rookie Braden Smith started at point guard in Indiana's last game, and none of the Pacers' three two-way players traveled.
That leaves Andrew Nembhard carrying the offense. He is averaging 19.0 points and 7.0 assists, and he scored 22 in Wednesday's 107-103 win at Memphis that snapped a five-game skid.
He runs into a Denver defense that has changed character. The Nuggets rank 3rd in steal rate (steals per opponent possession) at 10.6%, after finishing dead last, 30th, in that stat last season. Every live ball Indiana coughs up is a possession the Pacers can't afford against an offense this efficient.
Denver's shotmaking still travels
The Nuggets rank 5th in offensive efficiency at 114.7 points per 100 possessions and 4th in effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times). Nikola Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists last season, and he recently made 13 of 19 shots, a good sign after a slow shooting start.
This isn't last season's rotation. Players still on the roster logged 61.1% of Denver's minutes a year ago, with depth pieces gone and DeMar DeRozan arriving from Sacramento. DeRozan sat out Wednesday's win over Toronto with back spasms and is listed as probable. Julian Strawther is out with a knee sprain. Spencer Jones (hamstring) was ruled out Nov. 4, and his status for Saturday is unsettled.
Indiana's path runs through the paint
The Pacers can't lean on the three: they shoot 32.8% from deep, 24th in the league. Inside, they're far better, making 56.7% of their twos, 5th in the league. That's exactly where Denver bends. The Nuggets allow 50.9 paint points per game (25th) and rank 27th in block rate.
Pascal Siakam, at 21.2 points a night, is the obvious lever. Ivica Zubac is back from a five-game absence with an ankle sprain but went 0 for 5 in his return. Kelly Oubre Jr. has missed two games with a calf contusion and is questionable, though he says he plans to play.
Altitude, a familiar foe, a steady line
Mexico City sits at 7,350 feet, which is home cooking for a Denver team used to thin air. The Pacers are the designated home team on a neutral floor, playing in Mexico for the first time. Denver won both meetings last season, 117-100 and 135-120, while Indiana stumbled to a 19-63 finish.
The market hasn't budged: Denver is a 7.5-point favorite and the total sits at 228.5, both exactly where our feed first saw them. Indiana's games lean low, 3-6 to the over, and its scoring starts slowly, 24th in first-half points. Carlisle has said his team hasn't played with consistent intensity, though the Pacers have covered their last three games as underdogs.
What to watch
- McConnell's status. If he plays, Nembhard gets relief from Denver's pressure.
- Indiana's turnovers. Steals are Denver's new identity.
- Siakam in the paint. It's Indiana's best shot at offense against a soft interior.
- DeRozan's back. He's probable, but he sat Wednesday.
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers line movement and odds
| Book | Nuggets ML | Pacers ML | Nuggets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -325 | +260 | -8.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -286 | +225 | -7.5 (-112) | o230.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | -324 | +261 | -8.5 (-103) | o229.5 (-107) |
| ESPN BET | -320 | +260 | -7.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -320 | +250 | -8 (-110) | o229.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -320 | +260 | -7.5 (-122) | o229.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -325 | +260 | -8.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -335 | +260 | -8 (-110) | o229 (-115) |
Where the money is on Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 70% of bets, 93% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 30% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -7.5: 70% of bets, 94% of the money; Indiana Pacers +7.5: 30% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 64% of bets, 81% of the money; Under 228.5: 36% of bets, 19% of the money.
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers stats (this season)
| Stat | Denver Nuggets | Indiana Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 3-6 |
| Offensive efficiency | 114.7 (5th of 30) | 107.6 (21st of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 113.9 (24th of 30) | 110.5 (18th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 0.7 (18th of 30) | -2.9 (20th of 30) |
| Pace | 100.7 (26th of 30) | 103.4 (13th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 56.1% (4th of 30) | 53.5% (16th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 54.5% (20th of 30) | 53.1% (15th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 15.6% (17th of 30) | 15.3% (13th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 26.8% (16th of 30) | 22.0% (28th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 37.2% (9th of 30) | 32.8% (24th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 47.7 (11th of 30) | 50.2 (7th of 30) |
Key players
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists for Denver last season.
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Scored 25.4 points a game and shot 43.5% from three for Denver last season.
- DeMar DeRozan (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 18.4 points for the Sacramento Kings last season and is probable with back spasms.
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averaging 21.2 points and 7.0 rebounds this season.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Carrying the backcourt with 19.0 points and 7.0 assists per game this season.
- Quenton Jackson (Indiana Pacers): Adding 10.4 points and 1.4 steals in 21.9 minutes a night this season.
Numbers that matter
| Denver steal rate rank | 3rd | A jump from 30th last season, and a direct threat to Indiana's depleted ball handlers. |
|---|---|---|
| Denver opponent paint points | 50.9 | Ranked 25th, the soft spot Indiana's 5th-ranked two-point shooting can target. |
| Indiana 3-point % | 32.8% | Ranked 24th, so the Pacers can't count on shooting their way back from a deficit. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Denver's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| Indiana over/under record | 3-6 | Indiana's games have mostly stayed under; the total sits at 228.5. |
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers: quick answers
Who is favored in Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers?
Denver Nuggets is favored by 7.5 points (Denver Nuggets -7.5).
What is the over/under for Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers?
The total is 229.5 points.
When is Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:10 PM ET.
Where is Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers played?
Arena CDMX, Mexico City.
Has the line moved for Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers?
Yes: Denver Nuggets opened -6.5 and is now -7.5, and the total is still 229.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 70% of bets, 93% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 30% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -7.5: 70% of bets, 94% of the money; Indiana Pacers +7.5: 30% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 64% of bets, 81% of the money; Under 228.5: 36% of bets, 19% of the money.