Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks prediction: Hawks on short rest hunt turnovers from a careless Nets offense

Where Brooklyn loses the ball

Atlanta played Friday night and has to go again Saturday with a frontcourt held together by tape. The best thing working for the Hawks is that Brooklyn keeps handing over possessions. The Nets have scored 103.9 points per 100 possessions, 27th of 30, and turnovers explain plenty of it.

Brooklyn gives the ball away on 17.4% of its possessions (turnover rate), near the bottom of the league. Atlanta takes it away on 17.3% of opponent trips, 6th. Dyson Daniels is the tip of the spear at 2.6 steals a game, and the Hawks turn those into runouts: they score 16.3 fast-break points a night, while the Nets manage 10.1. A tired team on the second night of a back-to-back finds its easiest points this way, without grinding through half-court possessions.

Johnson's ankle, Atlanta's missing size

Jalen Johnson missed his third straight game Friday with a left ankle sprain and was listed as questionable for Saturday as of Friday. Atlanta beat Washington 139-132 in NBA Cup play without him, with Kingston Flemings making his first career start. Luguentz Dort has stayed in the lineup, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Onyeka Okongwu have carried more of the offense.

The bigger worry is size. Jock Landale (hip) sat Friday and hasn't been confirmed for Saturday. Asa Newell (toe) faces a multi-week absence, Mouhamed Gueye is out after foot surgery, and Henri Veesaar is done for the season with a torn ACL. Keshon Gilbert (knee) will be re-evaluated in about six weeks. No minutes restrictions have been announced for the back-to-back.

Brooklyn arrives rested, having last played Wednesday, but not whole. Egor Demin is out with a right leg bone bruise, leaving guard minutes to Chaney Johnson and Terance Mann. Noah Clowney missed the second half of Wednesday's win over Charlotte with right knee soreness, and reports conflict on whether he is listed, so his status is unsettled. Day'Ron Sharpe is day-to-day with an undisclosed issue.

Threes against a defense that guards the arc

Here is the stylistic tension. Brooklyn takes 48.1% of its shots from three, 3rd most in the league, and ranks 29th in points in the paint. Atlanta's defense takes away what the Nets want most: opponents take threes on only 39.0% of their shots against the Hawks, among the lowest shares in the league, and hit just 32.5% of them, 9th best.

Atlanta's soft spot is inside. The Hawks allow 54.2 paint points a game, 29th, and few shots get blocked, a hole the frontcourt injuries only widen. The Nets aren't built to punish it; they rank 29th in two-point percentage. If Sharpe plays and Julius Randle bullies smaller defenders, Brooklyn has a path. If the Nets settle for contested threes, Michael Porter Jr.'s 38.9% shooting has to carry a lot.

What the number says

Atlanta is a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 227, and neither number has moved since it was first recorded Saturday morning. The Nets have rewarded backers more than their record suggests: they are 5-3 against the spread, covering as underdogs at Boston, Indiana and New York and at home against Charlotte. Atlanta is 4-6 against the spread and failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite Friday.

The total hinges on the early tempo. The Hawks average 60.6 first-half points, while Brooklyn's 50.6 ranks last in the league. History leans Atlanta's way too: the Hawks won every meeting last season, the most recent a 141-107 rout in Brooklyn.