NBA Lost the last meeting by 15+: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Revenge spots after a beating. 198 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 98-95-5 (50.8%)
Straight up: 94-104 (47.5%)
Over/under: 95-102-1 (48.2% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.88 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 51-49 (51.0%); 2018-2027: 47-46 (50.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2026 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2022 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 4-7-1 | 36.4% |
| 2020 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% |
| 2019 | 7-5 | 58.3% |
| 2018 | 4-5-1 | 44.4% |
| 2017 | 2-6 | 25.0% |
| 2016 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2015 | 8-4-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2013 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2012 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2011 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2010 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2009 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2008 | 5-9 | 35.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA lost the last meeting by 15+ for the Miami Heat?
98-95-5 against the spread (50.8%) in 198 team-games since 2007-08, 94-104 straight up and 95-102-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 51-49 (51.0%); 2018-2027: 47-46 (50.5%).