Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction: Flyers' starved offense gets Konecny, Tippett back against Utah's goaltending
The NHL's lowest-scoring team may get two top forwards back against a Mammoth club that piles up shots but has struggled to stop them.
| Line | Utah Mammoth -170 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Utah should control the shot count, but its goaltending keeps games close; Philadelphia needs finishing it hasn't shown all season.
- Utah's top-ranked power play against an 11th-ranked Flyers penalty kill is the matchup most likely to swing a tight game.
- Utah is a -161 favorite, and the total has slipped from 6.5 to 6.0; Flyers games have gone under 10 times in 15.
Reinforcements for a stalled offense
The Flyers score 1.93 goals per game, last in the NHL. Their shooting percentage (goals per shot) is also 32nd, at 8.3%. They have lost three straight and 12 of their first 15 games, and captain Sean Couturier called the team "soft" at times this week. Tocchet pushed back on the word but said his players must "want the puck."
Help may arrive Sunday. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett, both on injured reserve, practiced Saturday in regular jerseys and took full part in top-six line rushes and power-play work. Tocchet said Tippett was "trending" toward playing and that he would talk with Konecny. Neither has been activated, so treat both as likely but unconfirmed.
The timing works for Philadelphia. Utah's team save percentage is 86.7%, 30th of 32, so even a weak attack has a chance to score here.
Goalie choices still open
Neither team has named a starter. Dan Vladar is listed as Philadelphia's probable starter, though Joseph Woll started Wednesday's loss in Washington and owns the better mark: .899 to Vladar's .888.
For Utah, Karel Vejmelka is the probable starter after Sebastian Cossa started Thursday's overtime win in Pittsburgh. Vejmelka sits at .881 with a 3.13 goals-against average. That is why Utah allows goals at a bottom-half rate even though it gives up the 5th-fewest shots in the league.
A lopsided special-teams battle
Utah's power play (goals per opportunity) converts 34.0% of its chances, best in the league. The Flyers' penalty kill (the share of shorthanded chances killed off) sits at 82.0%, 11th, a solid unit facing its toughest test.
The other side is a meeting of weaknesses. Utah's kill ranks 29th, and Philadelphia's power play ranks 26th at 16.3%. Konecny and Tippett working on the power play Saturday is the variable that could change that. Both teams go shorthanded at similar rates, so whichever unit cashes in probably decides a one-goal game.
Utah drives the play
Utah controls 55.2% of the shots in its games (shot share), 3rd in the league. Philadelphia's 43.6% ranks 30th. Expect the Flyers to spend long stretches defending.
Logan Cooley turned that pressure into a hat trick Thursday and has 7 goals on just 21 shots. Mikhail Sergachev and Clayton Keller lead the team in points. For the Flyers, Matvei Michkov has 9 goals on 21 shots, and Trevor Zegras leads the team with 13 points. Finishing rates like Cooley's and Michkov's are small-sample numbers this early.
Utah is shorthanded on the back end. John Marino remains out with an upper-body injury. Michael Carcone, on injured reserve, returned to full practice Oct. 28 but hasn't been confirmed for Sunday. Coach Andre Tourigny said Utah could repeat Thursday's lineup but there could be game-time decisions. The Flyers are without defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Utah is on a six-game road trip and has had three days off.
What the market is pricing
Utah is a -161 favorite, with the Flyers at +136 and +1.5 on the puck line. The total has come down from 6.5 to 6.0 since Saturday, which fits Philadelphia's profile: Flyers games have gone under 10 times in 15. Utah leans the other way, with 9 overs in 14.
The puck line has been unkind to Utah. The Mammoth are 5-9 against it and haven't covered -1.5 in any of their recent games, all as favorites, despite winning most of them. Utah also won both meetings last season, including a 3-0 shutout in Philadelphia on March 5.
Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers line movement and odds
| Book | Mammoth ML | Flyers ML | Mammoth spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 | -1.5 (+145) | o6 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -166 | +140 | -1.5 (+154) | o6.5 (+114) |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +135 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (+110) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (+115) |
| FanDuel | -164 | +136 | -1.5 (+148) | o6.5 (+114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +130 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | -170 | +140 | -1.5 (+149) | o6 (-114) |
Where the money is on Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 69% of bets, 72% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers: 31% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 77% of bets, 40% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers +1.5: 23% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 16% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 6.5: 84% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- Logan Cooley (Utah Mammoth): Has 7 goals on 21 shots this season, including Thursday's hat trick.
- Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth): Leads Utah with 16 points this season while logging 23.6 minutes a night.
- Clayton Keller (Utah Mammoth): Has 12 assists among his 16 points this season.
- Karel Vejmelka (Utah Mammoth): Carries an .881 save percentage and 3.13 GAA this season.
- Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia Flyers): Leads the Flyers with 9 goals on just 21 shots this season.
- Trevor Zegras (Philadelphia Flyers): Leads the team with 13 points this season.
- Dan Vladar (Philadelphia Flyers): Has an .888 save percentage this season.
- Joseph Woll (Philadelphia Flyers): Started Wednesday's loss and holds a .899 save percentage this season.
Numbers that matter
| Utah power play | 34.0% | Best in the NHL, facing a Flyers penalty kill ranked 11th. |
|---|---|---|
| Flyers goals per game | 1.93 | Last of 32 teams, before the possible return of Konecny and Tippett. |
| Utah team save % | 86.7% | Ranks 30th, the main reason a team that dominates shots still gives up goals. |
| Utah shot share | 55.2% | Ranks 3rd, against a Flyers team at 43.6%, 30th. |
| Game total | 6.0 | Down from 6.5, in line with Philadelphia's 10-5 run to the under. |
Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers: quick answers
What is the over/under for Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers?
No: Utah Mammoth has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 69% of bets, 72% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers: 31% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 77% of bets, 40% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers +1.5: 23% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 16% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 6.5: 84% of bets, 99% of the money.