Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers prediction: Oilers turn to Matt Tomkins on a back-to-back at the Garden
Edmonton is unbeaten on the road and owns the league's top offense, yet the market favors a slumping Rangers team because of who is expected in the Oilers' crease.
| Line | New York Rangers -126 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Edmonton's scorers should generate chances, but a rusty backup on the second night of a back-to-back gives the Rangers a real opening.
- Edmonton's 33.3% power play, 2nd in the NHL, against a New York penalty kill ranked 3rd at 90.5%.
- The Rangers are -126 favorites despite a three-game skid; their 6-1-0 home record is the number that backs the price.
A goalie off the shelf
The Oilers arrive at Madison Square Garden as the best road team in hockey, 6-0-0 away from home and chasing a seventh straight road win to open the season. They also arrive on their first back-to-back of the year, less than a day after Tristan Jarry made 18 saves to shut out the Islanders. That is why Matt Tomkins is expected to start. The team hasn't confirmed it, and Mike Babcock didn't tip his hand when asked.
Tomkins would be making his first start as an Oiler and his first NHL appearance since April 17, 2024. Edmonton's depth chart left few other options. Devon Levi is on injured reserve, and Frederik Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until around December. Jarry has carried a 90.1% save percentage this season. Tomkins has no current-season numbers to go on, and that uncertainty is the biggest variable in this game.
Power play against a wall
Special teams are where Edmonton usually breaks games open. The Oilers convert 33.3% of their power plays (goals per opportunity), 2nd in the league, and they draw 3.43 power plays a game, 8th. The Rangers' penalty kill has been their best unit, stopping 90.5% of opponents' chances, 3rd in the NHL.
The other side favors the Rangers as well. Edmonton's penalty kill sits 22nd at 74.4%. New York's power play is middle of the pack, and the Rangers don't draw many calls: 2.71 power plays a game ranks 27th. If the Rangers stay out of the box, they take away Edmonton's sharpest weapon.
Finishing beats volume
Neither team piles up shots. Edmonton averages 26.0 a game (22nd), and New York averages 24.7 (28th). The difference is what happens to those shots. The Oilers score on 16.2% of them, best in the league, which drives a league-leading 4.21 goals per game. That finishing rate is unlikely to hold, but it reflects who is shooting.
Connor McDavid has 37 points in 14 games, and his season-opening point and assist streaks are both on the line. Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals. Defenseman Evan Bouchard adds 23 points from the back end. Zach Hyman (neck) remains on injured reserve, and Isaac Howard (knee) has been ruled out after a knee-on-knee hit Saturday.
The Rangers' attack runs through Adam Fox, who has 16 assists, and Alexis Lafreniere, who has 9 goals. Pavel Dorofeyev has fired 42 shots but has converted only 7.1% of them.
Rangers' crease and blue line
New York has its own goaltending problem. Igor Shesterkin is out for the season after right knee surgery, and Joonas Korpisalo is on injured reserve. Dylan Garand is the projected starter but hasn't been confirmed. He has an 89.9% save percentage and a 2.69 goals-against average, and he has gone 1-4-1 since Oct. 15.
The defense is unsettled too. Sean Durzi and Braden Schneider both missed Saturday's practice, and Mike Sullivan called both day-to-day without ruling them out. Matthew Robertson was recalled from Hartford and would make his debut if either can't go. The Rangers have lost three straight, including a 7-4 loss in Ottawa and a 6-3 loss to Los Angeles, but they have had nearly a week off to reset.
What the market sees
The Rangers are -126 on the moneyline and the Oilers +105, with New York at -1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game. That price is mostly about Tomkins and the schedule, because New York has been a different team at home (6-1-0) than on the road (1-5-1).
The total sits high for a reason. The Rangers have gone over in 9 of 14 games, and Edmonton has gone over in 8 of 14. Edmonton's two straight shutouts, though, ended under that same number.
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers line movement and odds
| Book | Oilers ML | Rangers ML | Oilers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 | +1.5 (-220) | o6.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-230) | o6.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-235) | o6.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 | +1.5 (-235) | o6.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +108 | -130 | +1.5 (-225) | o6.5 (-108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -130 | +1.5 (-250) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | +104 | -122 | +1.5 (-230) | o6.5 (-120) |
Where the money is on Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Edmonton Oilers: 71% of bets, 59% of the money; New York Rangers: 29% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Rangers -1.5: 49% of bets, 51% of the money; Edmonton Oilers +1.5: 51% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 90% of bets, 70% of the money; Under 6.5: 10% of bets, 30% of the money.
Key players
- Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): He has 37 points through 14 games this season, with his season-opening point and assist streaks both on the line.
- Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers): He has 12 goals on 50 shots this season, a 24.0% shooting rate.
- Evan Bouchard (Edmonton Oilers): He leads Edmonton in ice time at 25.9 minutes a night this season and has 23 points.
- Dylan Garand (New York Rangers): He is the probable starter with an 89.9% save percentage this season and a 1-4-1 record since Oct. 15.
- Adam Fox (New York Rangers): He has 16 assists this season and drives a power play that converts 21.1% of its chances.
- Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers): He leads the Rangers with 9 goals this season on a 28.1% shooting rate.
Numbers that matter
| Oilers road record | 6-0-0 | Edmonton has yet to lose away from home, though this is its first back-to-back of the season. |
|---|---|---|
| Oilers power play | 33.3% | It ranks 2nd in the league and runs into a Rangers penalty kill ranked 3rd. |
| Rangers penalty kill | 90.5% | New York's best unit is its clearest path to slowing McDavid and Draisaitl. |
| Oilers shooting % | 16.2% | It is the league's best finishing rate and props up the top offense despite modest shot totals. |
| Rangers moneyline | -126 | The home team is favored despite its record, a price shaped by Edmonton's goaltending situation. |
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers: quick answers
What is the over/under for Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 6:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers?
No: Edmonton Oilers has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Edmonton Oilers: 71% of bets, 59% of the money; New York Rangers: 29% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Rangers -1.5: 49% of bets, 51% of the money; Edmonton Oilers +1.5: 51% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 90% of bets, 70% of the money; Under 6.5: 10% of bets, 30% of the money.