Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction: Lightning's power-play volume tests Winnipeg's 27th-ranked penalty kill

The penalty box decides it

Winnipeg's penalty kill has been the weakest part of a rough start. The Jets kill 69.4% of opponents' power plays (penalty kill %, the share of shorthanded situations that end without a goal), which ranks 27th of 32.

Tampa Bay is built to test that. The Lightning draw 3.62 power plays per game, 4th in the league, so they get to the man advantage more often than almost anyone.

The caveat is efficiency. Tampa's power play converts 20.7% of its chances, a middling figure, so this is a volume edge more than a skill edge. Still, every extra trip to the power play comes against a unit that has struggled all season, and that is the clearest mismatch in this game.

Two goalies searching for form

Dennis Hildeby started Saturday's overtime win in Minnesota, which makes Andrei Vasilevskiy the likely starter for the second night. He is the probable starter, though Tampa Bay hadn't named him as of Sunday morning. His .886 save percentage and 2.75 goals-against average are modest, and Tampa Bay's team save percentage ranks 25th of 32.

Stuart Skinner is expected to start for Winnipeg after beating Vancouver on Thursday. Winnipeg traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey in a package that returned Dawson Mercer, Nick Bjugstad and goalie Nico Daws, which leaves the crease to Skinner. Skinner's .885 is nearly identical to Vasilevskiy's. His 3.28 GAA reflects the shot volume he faces behind this defense. Neither starter has stolen many games yet.

Tampa Bay owns the puck

The Lightning take 55.3% of all shots in their games (shot share), 3rd in the NHL. That edge shows up at both ends, because they also rank among the stingiest teams in shots allowed.

Winnipeg gives up 29.1 shots per game, 25th, and its own finishing ranks near the bottom of the league. The exception is Kyle Connor, who has 13 goals and carries most of the scoring load. Mark Scheifele sets him up, but the rest of the lineup has rarely finished.

Tampa Bay's attack runs deeper. Nikita Kucherov has 22 points, and Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point all produce at better than a point per game.

Rest, starts and the injury list

The Jets have rested since Thursday's win over Vancouver and arrive on a two-game winning streak. That streak followed a nine-game skid, and it included a comeback from four goals down against Montreal. Tampa Bay played Saturday and is chasing a fourth straight win, but the Lightning are just 3-3-2 on the road.

Watch the opening 20 minutes. Tampa scores 1.25 first-period goals per game, while Winnipeg manages 0.59, 29th in the league. The Lightning won the first meeting 6-4 in Tampa on Oct. 29.

Josh Morrissey (wrist) skated in a regular jersey Saturday, but coach Scott Arniel wasn't sure he would play, and at least one Sunday listing has him out. Treat his status as unsettled until warmups. Elias Salomonsson is away from the team for personal reasons with no timetable for a return. Tampa Bay remains without Yanni Gourde (hip).

What the market says

Tampa Bay is -145 on the moneyline and Winnipeg is +123, with the Jets getting the goal and a half on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game.

The Lightning are 9-7 against the puck line this season. With both probable starters stopping shots at similar, unremarkable rates and Winnipeg's penalty kill inviting extra chances, the total reflects a game where goals come easily.