Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins prediction: Florida's shot edge runs into Boston's finishing on Sunday
The Panthers control the puck and draw more power plays than anyone, but they arrive in Boston against a team that converts and saves better than almost everyone.
| Line | Boston Bruins -131 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Florida should win the shot battle, but Boston's finishing and goaltending have turned fewer shots into wins, especially at home (7-1-0).
- Jeremy Swayman (.912) against Jacob Markstrom (88.5%); neither starter is confirmed.
- Boston is -131 with the total at 6.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it; the Bruins are 13-4 on the puck line.
Volume against finish
Florida has spent the first month tilting the ice. The Panthers own 54.4% of the shots in their games (shot share, a team's portion of all shots), 5th in the league. Boston sits 19th in shot share.
The Bruins win anyway because they bury chances and stop pucks. They shoot 14.2% (goals per shot), 3rd in the NHL, and their team save percentage ranks 1st. Florida's team save percentage ranks 25th. That gap is why Boston carries the 2nd-best goal differential in the league while Florida sits 11th.
A month of shooting and save percentages is a small sample, and numbers like Boston's can cool. For one Sunday afternoon at TD Garden, though, this is the profile that has produced a 7-1-0 home record.
A tired team, a returning goalie
Florida was set to play Saturday in Washington with Akira Schmid in net, and the packet lists the Panthers as not on a back-to-back, so Sunday's 1:10 PM ET puck drop comes with four days of listed rest. Jacob Markstrom is the probable starter, though the Panthers had not confirmed him.
Markstrom's season has been rough, with an 88.5% save percentage. In Monday's 5-3 loss to Detroit, his first game back from an upper-body injury, he stopped 24 of 28 shots. One Saturday line report had Schmid moving up to the No. 1 job, so Markstrom may be playing for his standing as much as for two points.
Jeremy Swayman is expected to start for Boston, also unconfirmed. He carries a .912 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average. The Bruins come in rested after two days off since Thursday's 6-2 win in Pittsburgh, their third straight victory, which backup Michael DiPietro started.
Florida lives on the power play
No team draws more penalties. Florida gets 4.44 power plays per game, 1st in the league, and converts 23.9% of them (power play %, goals per opportunity), 9th. Boston's penalty kill ranks 18th. That is the clearest edge Florida holds in this game.
The catch is that the Panthers hand chances right back. They are shorthanded 4.06 times per game, 31st of 32. Boston's power play has been ordinary at 21st, so the Bruins haven't punished that habit the way this matchup invites them to.
Holes in both lineups
Florida remains without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, both on injured reserve with left knee injuries; coach Paul Maurice said Friday both would travel on this road trip. Anton Lundell is listed out with an undisclosed issue, so his Sunday status is unsettled. Sandis Vilmanis was also listed out Saturday.
That leaves the scoring to Matthew Tkachuk, who leads the team with 22 points, plus Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe, with nine goals apiece.
Boston lost rookie James Hagens to a back injury after a cross-check Thursday. He went on injured reserve Saturday, Marco Sturm expects him out "a few weeks," and Mikey Eyssimont was recalled from Providence. Matt Poitras is trying to play through a broken nose and is listed day-to-day. David Pastrnak, with 22 points, still drives the attack.
What the market is saying
Boston is a -131 favorite and Florida sits at +111, with the total at 6.5 and the Bruins -1.5 on the puck line. None of it has moved since our feed first saw the game.
The Bruins are 13-4 on the puck line this season, while Florida is 6-10. History leans the other way: Florida won every meeting last season, each by a single goal, including 4-3 in Boston.
Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins line movement and odds
| Book | Panthers ML | Bruins ML | Panthers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 | +1.5 (-210) | o6 (-125) |
| BetRivers | +114 | -134 | +1.5 (-240) | o6.5 (+107) |
| DraftKings | +114 | -135 | +1.5 (-218) | o6.5 (+105) |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 | +1.5 (-225) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 | +1.5 (-225) | o6.5 (+105) |
| FanDuel | +114 | -137 | +1.5 (-230) | o6.5 (+112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -135 | +1.5 (-210) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | +112 | -132 | +1.5 (-218) | o6 (-124) |
Where the money is on Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 23% of bets, 10% of the money; Boston Bruins: 77% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Bruins -1.5: 77% of bets, 89% of the money; Florida Panthers +1.5: 24% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 57% of bets, 50% of the money; Under 6.5: 43% of bets, 50% of the money.
Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins stats (this season)
| Stat | Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-6-2 | 12-4-1 |
| Goals per game | 3.24 (15th of 32) | 3.71 (6th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.00 (11th of 32) | 2.35 (4th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.24 (12th of 32) | 1.35 (2nd of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 28.9 (8th of 32) | 26.2 (20th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 24.6 (3rd of 32) | 27.4 (17th of 32) |
| Shot share | 54.0% (5th of 32) | 48.9% (19th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.2% (18th of 32) | 14.2% (3rd of 32) |
| Team save % | 87.8% (26th of 32) | 91.4% (1st of 32) |
| Power play % | 23.7% (9th of 32) | 19.6% (21st of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 85.3% (6th of 32) | 76.8% (18th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 48.8% (22nd of 32) | 55.1% (3rd of 32) |
Key players
- Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Leads Florida with 22 points this season, 18 of them assists.
- Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers): Has nine goals this season on a 17.3% shooting rate.
- Jacob Markstrom (Florida Panthers): Owns an 88.5% save percentage this season and stopped 24 of 28 in his return Monday.
- David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins): Leads Boston with 22 points and 61 shots this season.
- Elias Lindholm (Boston Bruins): Has six goals this season while shooting 20.7%.
- Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins): Carries a .912 save percentage and 2.31 goals-against average this season.
Numbers that matter
| Florida shot share | 54.4% | Ranks 5th, so the Panthers should control possession. |
|---|---|---|
| Boston shooting % | 14.2% | Ranks 3rd and explains how Boston wins without winning the shot count. |
| Florida power plays drawn per game | 4.44 | Tops the league, against a Boston penalty kill ranked 18th. |
| Florida times shorthanded per game | 4.06 | Ranks 31st of 32, giving a 21st-ranked Boston power play chances. |
| Boston moneyline | -131 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the game. |
Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins: quick answers
What is the over/under for Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 1:10 PM ET.
Where is Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins played?
TD Garden, Boston.
Has the line moved for Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins?
No: Florida Panthers has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 23% of bets, 10% of the money; Boston Bruins: 77% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Bruins -1.5: 77% of bets, 89% of the money; Florida Panthers +1.5: 24% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 57% of bets, 50% of the money; Under 6.5: 43% of bets, 50% of the money.