New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: Devils' shot barrage tests a Leafs blue line likely missing Rielly
New Jersey leads the league in shots on goal, and Toronto may have to absorb that volume without its top puck-moving defenseman on the second night of a back-to-back.
New Jersey Devils covered the closing puck line (New Jersey Devils -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | New Jersey Devils -160 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect New Jersey to control territory and the shot count, with Toronto leaning on sharper finishing and a strong power play to keep pace.
- Toronto's power play at 28.6% against a Devils penalty kill ranked 29th, though New Jersey goes shorthanded less than any team.
- The Devils are -157 favorites and the total has dropped from 6.5 to 6.0, even though New Jersey's games have gone over 11 times in 17.
Volume against a thin blue line
New Jersey arrives on a four-game win streak with the heaviest shot diet in hockey. The Devils put 33.9 shots on goal per game, 1st of 32. Toronto allows 29.6 a night, which ranks 27th, and it may have to handle that pressure without Morgan Rielly.
Rielly left Saturday's 4-2 loss to Montreal with a lower-body injury and did not return. He is listed as day-to-day, there was no update after the game, and Dakota Mermis is projected to draw in. The Leafs' late-afternoon media availability should settle it. Hiller called the injury "a big blow."
The counterweight is finishing. The Devils score on just 10.6% of their shots, 25th in the league. Toronto converts 12.6%, 8th, which keeps the Leafs dangerous even on nights they lose the shot battle. John Tavares returned Saturday after nine games out and played left wing alongside William Nylander.
Special teams cut both ways
This is the matchup that could flip the script. Toronto's power play (power-play goals per opportunity) converts 28.6%. New Jersey's penalty kill stops only 67.6% of chances, 29th of 32.
The catch is access. The Devils go shorthanded fewer times per game than any team in the league, while Toronto ranks 23rd in times shorthanded. If New Jersey stays disciplined, the Leafs' best weapon may barely get used. If the whistles come, the Devils' biggest weakness is exposed.
Goalies on the second night
Both teams played Saturday, and both appear set to turn to the other goalie. Jake Allen started for New Jersey at the Islanders, so Connor Hellebuyck is the expected starter. He carries an 89.1% save percentage through four games.
For Toronto, Anthony Stolarz is the probable starter, though that hasn't been confirmed. He has been the steadier Leafs goalie at 91.0% across six games. Sergei Bobrovsky, at 88.6%, is the other option. Goalie numbers this early come from small samples, so a single soft goal can swing them.
Form, schedule and the market
The teams are trending in opposite directions. New Jersey's last three wins all went past regulation, the latest on Jack Hughes' goal 1:18 into overtime at the Islanders. Toronto has lost four of five and sits seventh in the Atlantic. As of early November, the Devils had not swept two games in two days this season.
Starts matter here. The Leafs allow 1.11 first-period goals per game, 25th, and they trailed 0-2 after one period Saturday. The Devils give up only 0.65, 4th.
The market has New Jersey at -157 and Toronto at +132. The total has dipped to 6.0 from the 6.5 our feed first recorded, even though every one of the Devils' last five games went over. Toronto's last three went under. New Jersey is 7-10 on the puck line, and those overtime wins explain much of that. Last season the Devils took two of three meetings, including a 5-2 win in Toronto.
New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Leafs ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +135 | -1.5 (+135) | o6.5 (-102) |
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 | -1.5 (+155) | o6.5 (+100) |
| FanDuel | -156 | +130 | -1.5 (+152) | o6.5 (+104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +130 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | -170 | +135 | -1.5 (+130) | o6.5 (-105) |
Key players
- Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils): Leads the Devils with 23 points this season and has put 70 shots on goal.
- Arseny Gritsyuk (New Jersey Devils): Has 8 goals this season on an 18.2% shooting rate, the sharpest among New Jersey's top scorers.
- Connor Hellebuyck (New Jersey Devils): Owns an 89.1% save percentage and a 2.44 goals-against average in four games this season.
- Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): Leads Toronto with 27 points this season, including 11 goals.
- William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has 11 goals and 22 points this season on 20.8% shooting.
- Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs): Carries a 91.0% save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average across six games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Devils shots per game | 33.9 | First in the league, against a Toronto team that ranks 27th in shots allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| Leafs power play | 28.6% | Ranks 6th and faces a Devils penalty kill that ranks 29th. |
| Devils penalty kill | 67.6% | New Jersey's clearest weakness, offset by the fact that it goes shorthanded the fewest times in the league. |
| Devils moneyline | -157 | New Jersey is favored on the road despite playing the second night of a back-to-back. |
| Total | 6.0 | Down from 6.5 when our feed first saw the game, though the Devils are 11-6 to the over. |
New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs: quick answers
What was the final score of New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
New Jersey Devils 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 0 (final). New Jersey Devils covered the closing puck line (New Jersey Devils -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
No: New Jersey Devils has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).