Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks prediction: Anaheim's 36.1% power play runs into Pittsburgh's discipline

Power play against discipline

The Ducks score as if every shot were a breakaway, and they defend as if they would rather not. Pittsburgh arrives in Anaheim a night after snapping a four-game slide in Los Angeles, with Sidney Crosby freshly passing Marcel Dionne for sixth on the all-time scoring list. The Penguins have to win this one on tired legs.

The matchup that tilts it is Anaheim's power play. The Ducks convert 36.1% of their chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 2nd in the league, and they draw 3.59 power plays per game, 6th. That unit could swing the night.

Pittsburgh's answer is to stay out of the box. The Penguins are shorthanded 2.53 times per game, 2nd fewest in the NHL, and their penalty kill (the share of opponent power plays killed off) sits at 81.4%, 10th. If the Ducks get only a couple of chances, their best weapon goes quiet.

The Ducks have the opposite habit. They lead the league in penalty minutes, and their penalty kill ranks 24th. Pittsburgh is poorly built to cash in, though, with a power play that ranks 23rd and draws few calls.

Nobody is stopping pucks

Both teams' goaltending has been the weak point. Anaheim's team save percentage of 86.0% ranks 31st, and Pittsburgh's 87.3% ranks 28th. A bad first period could follow: both clubs allow 1.29 first-period goals per game, tied for 29th.

Arturs Silovs is expected to start for Pittsburgh. He sat Saturday while Sergei Murashov beat the Kings, so Silovs is rested even though his teammates are on a back-to-back. He carries a .876 save percentage across his 11 appearances.

Anaheim's starter is unsettled. Laurent Brossoit is listed as the probable starter, while other previews point to Lukas Dostal, who shares the net with Ville Husso. The Ducks have not confirmed a starter. Seventeen games is a small sample for save percentage, but neither team has given bettors much reason to trust its goalies.

Anaheim finishes, Pittsburgh shares it

Anaheim does not shoot much. The Ducks average 24.8 shots per game, 29th, but they convert 15.2% of them, 2nd in the league. Cutter Gauthier leads them with 12 goals, and Leo Carlsson has 26 points as the playmaker who sets the table.

Pittsburgh spreads the scoring around. Erik Karlsson runs the offense from the blue line with 17 points. Evgeni Malkin, who missed a game last week with a lower-body injury, had three assists in Saturday's win and is projected on the top line with Crosby and Rickard Rakell.

Schedule, health and the market

The Penguins play their second game in two nights, and they have been poor travelers at 2-6-1 away from home. Oddly, the Ducks have been better on the road than at Honda Center. They are 7-3-0 on the road and 2-4-1 at home, where they debut their Hometown Remix jerseys tonight.

Pittsburgh is thin. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve awaiting a re-evaluation, and Ryan Graves and Elmer Soderblom are also on IR. Soderblom was called week-to-week on Nov 2. Trevor van Riemsdyk skated Saturday morning but missed his 11th straight game. For Anaheim, Troy Terry (hip) was described as getting close in late October, with no update since. A.J. Greer and Ryan Poehling remain on IR.

The Ducks are -120 on the moneyline and the Penguins are even money, with the total at 6.5. Neither line has moved since our feed first recorded it. Anaheim won both meetings last season by a 4-3 score. The Penguins have gone over in 11 of 17 games.