Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins prediction: Wisconsin's Big-Play Wall Awaits a Maryland Offense With QB Questions

Maryland Needs Chunks, Wisconsin Allows None

Maryland's offense lives on the occasional big gain. It ranks 24th in explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, but 97th in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. Wisconsin's defense is built to erase that profile. The Badgers rank 1st in explosiveness allowed and 10th in EPA allowed per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard).

The Terrapins can't lean on the ground to make up for it. Their line yards per carry, the rushing credit assigned to the blockers, ranks 121st, and our projection gives them just 64 rushing yards. That puts the game on Malik Washington, and Washington is listed questionable on the Big Ten availability report. He was at his best last week at Purdue, a season-best four-touchdown game. He averaged 14.1 yards per attempt that day, and Chris Durr Jr. caught passes for 127 yards.

There is one crack. Wisconsin's stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 107th. DeJuan Williams averages 6.2 yards per carry and ran for 99 at Purdue. Up front, Maryland allows 1.0 sack per game, 13th nationally, which blunts a Sebastian Cheeks pass rush that has produced 4.5 sacks over his last three games.

A Freshman Takes the Wheel

Wisconsin made its quarterback change last week. Freshman Ryan Hopkins made his first career start against Rutgers and went 18 of 24. He threw for 241 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win. Fickell said Hopkins starts the week as the guy, and that the team has confidence in both quarterbacks, though a two-quarterback plan hasn't been confirmed.

The switch followed a stretch in which Colton Joseph averaged 4.9 yards per attempt over three games, including the 0-30 loss at Iowa. The Wisconsin offense is still a hit-or-miss unit: 115th in success rate but 12th in explosiveness. Over its last three games, it averaged 18.3 points.

Maryland's pass defense gives Hopkins room to keep growing. It ranks 102nd in explosiveness allowed. Still, wind of 16.1 mph favors the Badgers' run-first plan, and our projection has them at 150 rushing yards.

Wind, Punts and Red Zones

The wind makes field position a bigger lever than usual, and the punting gap is wide. Maryland's net punting average of 36.3 yards ranks 128th. Wisconsin's opponents start drives at their own 25.5-yard line on average, 10th best in the country.

Finishing tilts the same way. Maryland's defense allows 4.42 points per scoring opportunity, 132nd of 138, so it bends and then breaks inside the 40. That gives Wisconsin's offense a chance to fix its own weakness: it converts only 3.36 points per opportunity, 102nd. If the Badgers turn short fields into touchdowns rather than field goals, the margin grows quickly.

An Interim Spark Faces a Bowl Team

Maryland fired Mike Locksley after a six-game losing streak, and interim head coach Aazaar Abdul-Rahim is now in charge. The comeback win at Purdue snapped a 13-game Big Ten losing streak. That lift came with a defense still in trouble: over the last three games it allowed 0.255 EPA per play and 28.7 points per game.

Wisconsin is bowl eligible, with Purdue and Minnesota left after this trip, and Fickell has a shot at the best record of his tenure. The Badgers also carry a grudge. Maryland won 27-10 in Madison last season, and Washington accounted for three touchdowns.

The Wisconsin secondary is thinner than usual. Cornerback Cai Bates and lineman Kevin Heywood are out for the season, tight end Emmett Bork is out, and safety Carson Van Dinter is questionable. Cornerback Jai'mier Scott, hurt in the second half against Rutgers, is probable. Running back Nate Palmer and lineman Barrett Nelson are doubtful. For Maryland, defensive lineman Dontay Joyner is doubtful.

Where the Number Sits

The line opened with Wisconsin favored by 7 and has moved to 8.5, with the market leaning toward the Badgers. Our model goes a little further, making Wisconsin a 9.8-point favorite and giving Maryland a 27.0% chance to win. On the total, we land right on the market's 42.5.

For the first half, our number is Wisconsin by 6.1 with a total of 22.3. A Wisconsin cover likely means its run game did the work. In our testing, when the favorite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated.