Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans prediction: Michigan State's Depleted Backfield Runs Into Washington's Wall

A Backfield Running on Fumes

Michigan State wants to run the ball and slow the game down. The question is who carries it. Camryn Edwards is out for the season, Marvis Parrish is out, and Jaziun Patterson, who leads the team with 5 rushing touchdowns, is listed as doubtful. That leaves Brandon Tullis, who handled a career-high 25 carries for 86 yards in the upset at Michigan.

He will be running behind a line that ranks 112th in line yards per carry (yardage credited to the blockers on each run). Washington's front is built to punish that. The Huskies' stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, sits at 24.2%, 12th in the country, and they allow just 2.61 line yards per carry, 20th. The one caveat is depth: defensive tackle Elinneus Davis and edge rushers Devin Hyde, Isaiah Ward and Logan George are all questionable. If most of them play, the Spartans may struggle to stay on schedule.

Williams, Lawson and a Thin Secondary

Williams showed up as questionable on the conference injury report, though Fisch called him healthy earlier in the week and said he planned to start him. If Williams can't go, Elijah Brown takes over. Williams has cooled lately, with a 56.1% completion rate over his last three games against 64.5% on the season.

Washington's offense lives through the air because it can't run: the Huskies rank 131st in rushing yards per game. Their passing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 42nd, and Michigan State's pass defense allows enough to make that work, ranking 85th in passing EPA allowed. The Spartans are also short-handed in the back end, with safety Devin Vaught out and corners Tre Bell and Charles Brantley questionable.

That sets up Chris Lawson. He has 347 receiving yards over his last three games, including 12 catches for 155 yards at Nebraska.

Two Lines, Plenty of Sacks

Both quarterbacks will be under pressure. Washington and Michigan State each allow 3.0 sacks per game, tied at 124th nationally. The difference is who brings the heat. Washington's havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup, is 18.7%, 20th in FBS. Michigan State's is 14.8%, 90th.

Alessio Milivojevic has been efficient and careful, completing 70.5% with no interceptions over his last three games. But he is not a runner, with -29 rushing yards on the season, so he can't escape trouble with his legs. Anelu Lafaele gives the Spartans their best counter, with 3 sacks in his last three games.

Field Position vs. Finishing

Michigan State wins the hidden-yardage battle. The Spartans start drives at their own 32.1 on average, 11th nationally, behind a net punting average that ranks 5th. Washington starts at its own 26.8, 119th.

Washington wins once it gets close. The Huskies score 4.37 points per scoring opportunity, 29th, while Michigan State manages 3.14, 116th. Washington's weak spot is third down, where it converts just 33.3%, 120th. In a game projected near 43 points, a couple of stalled Husky drives could keep the Spartans close.

Stakes, Schedule and the Line

Michigan State is 3-6 and must win out to reach a bowl for the first time since its 2021 Peach Bowl win. Washington is one win from bowl eligibility. The Spartans' 15-6 win at Michigan came as 14-point underdogs and snapped a six-game losing streak. They have covered in 5 of 9 games this season, and they did it against a tougher schedule, with an average opponent SP+ of 9.4 to Washington's 4.5.

Washington has covered just 3 of 9 and lost its last two home games as a favorite, to Iowa and to Penn State. In the 28-25 Penn State loss, the Huskies fell behind 28-6 by halftime before scoring 19 straight. The line opened at 4.5 and has moved toward Michigan State, to 3.5.