USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Unsettled at quarterback, Indiana leans on its defense against USC
The Hoosiers have the nation's stingiest defense per play, but a stalled offense, an injured Josh Hoover and a missing lead back give USC's efficient passing game a real opening.
| Spread | Indiana -10 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 50.5 |
- Indiana's defense should control the line of scrimmage, but USC's sharp short passing game can keep it close if Indiana's offense stays stuck.
- Tobi Osunsanmi and Indiana's pass rush against Jayden Maiava's quick release decides whether USC's offense stays on schedule.
- Our model makes Indiana a 10.9-point favorite, a hair beyond the market's 10, and lands right on the 50.5 total.
A quarterback question in Bloomington
Indiana has spent the past month winning games its offense nearly lost. The Hoosiers' defense allows 4.08 yards per play, best in the country, yet their last three games produced just 17.0 points per game. Now the quarterback who drove the early-season attack might not start, and USC arrives with its Playoff hopes on the line.
Josh Hoover is still recovering from an arm injury. He is not on the initial availability report, but Curt Cignetti hasn't named a starter. "We'll see how the week plays out," Cignetti said Monday.
Hoover's season line is excellent: 9.0 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns. His recent form is not. Over the last three games he completed 46.8% of his passes at 6.4 yards per attempt. Grant Wilson replaced him in the second half against Minnesota and went 9 of 17. Wilson's best throw won the game, a 25-yard overtime touchdown to Charlie Becker.
The run game takes a hit too. Turbo Richard, Indiana's leading rusher, is out after averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Lee Beebe, with 715 yards on the season, carries the load behind a line that ranks 18th in line yards (yards credited to the blockers on each run). USC's stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 87th, so Beebe should find room.
Osunsanmi against Maiava
Indiana's pass rush is the best weapon on the field. The Hoosiers average 3.56 sacks per game, fifth nationally, and lead the Big Ten with 32. Their havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup) sits at 20.0%, eighth in the country.
Tobi Osunsanmi drives it. He has 10.0 sacks, five of them in the last three games.
USC's protection has held up, ranking 20th in havoc allowed. The danger is the game Wisconsin played. In that 24-7 loss, Maiava threw 50 passes with two interceptions, and King Miller managed 8 yards on 11 carries. USC can't lean on the ground to escape pressure: it ranks 108th in rushing yards per game, and Indiana ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed.
The one crack in Indiana
Indiana rarely lets an offense stay on schedule. Its success rate allowed, the share of opponent plays that gain enough yardage, ranks third at 31.4%. But when a play does get through, it goes a long way: Indiana ranks 128th in explosiveness allowed.
That fits USC's offense. The Trojans rank ninth in success rate and 15th on third down, built on Maiava's accuracy rather than chunk plays. Cignetti praised his quick release, which is exactly what beats a rush like Indiana's. Against Ohio State, Maiava averaged 10.1 yards per attempt in the 30-18 win.
Trent Mosley is the man who can turn completions into explosions. He has 512 yards and six touchdowns in six games, including 101 yards against Ohio State.
Indiana's kicking problem
In a game Indiana may grind out, its specialists are a liability. The Hoosiers have made 13 of 20 field goals, a 65.0% rate that ranks 113th. Their gross punting average ranks 130th.
USC flips that edge, ranking fourth in net punting. Indiana makes up for it with discipline: it ranks 10th in fewest turnovers and seventh in fewest penalty yards.
Where the number sits
The line opened at Indiana -6.8 and has climbed to -10. The Wednesday move prompted talk that Maiava was hurt, but no injury has been reported.
Indiana has been a poor bet all year at 1-8 against the spread, failing to cover each of its last four. USC is 3-6. Both teams come in off two weeks of rest.
Our model makes Indiana a 10.9-point favorite with a 75.0% chance to win and lands on 50.5 for the total, matching the market. For the first half, it has Indiana by 6.6 with a total of 26.1.
Where the money is on USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers
On the Kalshi moneyline: USC Trojans: 73% of bets, 60% of the money; Indiana Hoosiers: 27% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Hoosiers -9.5: 20% of bets, 12% of the money; USC Trojans +9.5: 81% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 13% of bets, 10% of the money; Under 50.5: 87% of bets, 90% of the money.
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers stats (this season)
| Stat | USC Trojans | Indiana Hoosiers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 8-1 |
| Points per game | 32.4 (39th of 138) | 32.4 (39th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 24.2 (68th of 138) | 12.4 (4th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.26 (37th of 138) | 6.92 (9th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 (89th of 138) | 4.08 (1st of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 294.6 (12th of 138) | 233.3 (63rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.4 (108th of 138) | 186.2 (34th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 49.5% (15th of 138) | 40.2% (69th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 (37th of 138) | 0.67 (10th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.78 (124th of 138) | 1.00 (92nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.237 (21st of 138) | 0.277 (10th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.131 (95th of 138) | -0.064 (11th of 138) |
Key players
- Jayden Maiava (USC): He has thrown for 2,525 yards and 20 touchdowns against five interceptions.
- Trent Mosley (USC): He has 512 receiving yards and six touchdowns in six games.
- King Miller (USC): He has 681 rushing yards at 4.9 per carry but managed 8 yards against Wisconsin.
- Luke Wafle (USC): He leads the listed USC defenders with 8.5 tackles for loss, including two sacks in the last three games.
- Josh Hoover (Indiana): He has 19 touchdowns against two interceptions but completed 46.8% of passes over his last three games.
- Charlie Becker (Indiana): He leads Indiana with 875 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
- Lee Beebe (Indiana): With Turbo Richard out, he takes over a backfield where he has 715 yards at 5.3 per carry.
- Tobi Osunsanmi (Indiana): He has 10.0 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss this season.
Numbers that matter
| Indiana points per game, last 3 | 17.0 | Indiana's offense has stalled against Ohio State, Michigan and Minnesota, before Hoover's injury and Richard's absence. |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana sacks per game | 3.56 | Fifth nationally, the main threat to USC's pass-first offense. |
| Indiana explosiveness allowed rank | 128th | Indiana's elite defense gives up big gains when a play breaks through. |
| USC passing EPA allowed rank | 120th | Whoever starts at quarterback for Indiana should find openings through the air. |
| Indiana field-goal percentage | 65.0% | Ranked 113th, a real risk in a game that may come down to field goals. |
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers: quick answers
Who is favored in USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?
Indiana is favored by 10 points (Indiana -10).
What is the over/under for USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?
The total is 50.5 points.
When is USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers played?
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
Where is the money on USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: USC Trojans: 73% of bets, 60% of the money; Indiana Hoosiers: 27% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Hoosiers -9.5: 20% of bets, 12% of the money; USC Trojans +9.5: 81% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 13% of bets, 10% of the money; Under 50.5: 87% of bets, 90% of the money.