Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls prediction: Rice's triple option draws a Tulane run defense in free fall
Tulane has the better record, but its front ranks 134th against the run, and Rice's offense does almost nothing except run.
| Spread | Rice -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48 |
- Rice grinds on the ground against a front that keeps folding, while Tulane's offense lives on a few explosive plays and stalls between them.
- Rice's option rushing attack, fourth nationally, against a Tulane defense allowing 215.3 rushing yards per game.
- Our number makes Rice a 1.5-point favorite, a point shy of the market's 2.5, with the total right on 48.
Option football, broken front
Rice is 1-8 and winless in the American, yet it is favored over a Tulane team with four wins. The reason is one matchup. Scott Abell brought a triple-option offense from Davidson, and the Owls rush for 271.0 yards per game, fourth in the country. Tulane allows 215.3 rushing yards per game, 134th of 138.
The deeper numbers back it up. Tulane gives up 3.25 line yards per carry (yards credited to the offensive line on each run), 126th nationally, and opponents convert 50.0% of third downs against it, 135th. An option team that stays on schedule can keep the chains moving all afternoon against that.
The form says the same thing. Tulane has allowed 44.3 points per game over its last three, a stretch that ended with a 60-10 home loss to Tulsa. Rice has averaged 29.7 points over its own last three.
The catch is that Rice has no second option. It throws for 92.4 yards per game, 136th, and ranks last of 138 in passing EPA (expected points added per pass play). If Tulane gets Rice into third-and-long, the drive is usually over.
Quarterback questions on both sidelines
Abell settled his side early in the week: "Gael will be our starting quarterback." Ochoa is still listed as QB2 on the depth chart, but his first career start was the 51-49 loss to Florida Atlantic, when he produced five touchdowns. Jacurri Brown, Rice's leading runner from the quarterback spot with 685 rushing yards, came back from an ankle injury and split snaps with Ochoa at North Texas. His role Saturday is not confirmed.
Tulane hasn't named a starter. Trace Johnson has thrown four interceptions over his last three games and went 11 of 19 for 69 yards against Tulsa. Dagan Bruno came on in the fourth quarter of that game and drove Tulane to its only touchdown. Whether Bruno starts is unclear, and that uncertainty makes Tulane's offense harder to price than Rice's.
Tulane's all-or-nothing offense
Tulane's offense is a strange mix. It ranks fourth in explosiveness, a measure of how much a successful play gains, but 134th in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. It rarely moves the ball steadily. It mostly scores on chunk plays.
Johnnie Daniels is the source of most of those chunks. He has run for 252 yards on 31 carries over the last three games, an average of 8.1 per carry. Feeding him is the cleanest path for Tulane.
The danger is behind the line. Tulane ranks 132nd in havoc allowed (the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup), and it gives up 2.67 sacks per game. Rice's defense averages 6.44 tackles for loss per game, 22nd nationally, with Koa Akui and Braden Bays doing much of that work. Negative plays are where Tulane's drives die.
Hidden yards favor the visitors
Rice's offense starts its drives at its own 24.2-yard line on average, worst in the country. Its kick returns average 11.5 yards, 137th. Tulane's net punting average of 45.6 yards ranks seventh, so Rice will keep facing long fields.
Rice also struggles to finish. The Owls have made 6 of 13 field goals, and their defense forces 0.56 takeaways per game, 137th. Tulane turns the ball over 1.67 times per game, 118th, but Rice has rarely punished anyone for mistakes. In a game priced within a field goal, a missed kick or a punt pinned inside the 10 could decide the cover.
Where the number lands
Rice opened as a 2.5-point favorite and hasn't moved across 27 books, with the total at 48. Our model makes Rice a 1.5-point favorite with a 54.0% chance to win, so it leans a point toward Tulane. Its fair total of 48.09 matches the market.
The records hide a schedule gap. Rice's FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 3.9, while Tulane's average -3.2. Rice's 1-8 came against tougher competition.
Motivation cuts both ways. The Tulsa loss ended Tulane's run at a fifth straight American title game, and athletic director David Harris called that loss "unacceptable" in a letter. Rice plays at home on Homecoming, still looking for its first conference win. Tulane has won the last two meetings, by 30-28 in 2023 and 24-10 in 2024.
- Watch: Rice's early carries. Easy yards on first down point to a long afternoon for Tulane.
- Watch: Who takes Tulane's first snap, and whether Rice's front keeps him behind the chains.
- Watch: Rice's field-goal tries in a game this tight.
Where the money is on Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulane Green Wave: 77% of bets, 49% of the money; Rice Owls: 24% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Rice Owls -2.5: 69% of bets, 76% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +2.5: 31% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 78% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 48.5: 22% of bets, 1% of the money.
Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls stats (this season)
| Stat | Tulane Green Wave | Rice Owls |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5 | 1-8 |
| Points per game | 21.1 (114th of 138) | 21.2 (113th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2 (108th of 138) | 34.0 (128th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.39 (101st of 138) | 5.83 (67th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.07 (115th of 138) | 5.85 (97th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 193.2 (106th of 138) | 92.4 (136th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.6 (90th of 138) | 271.0 (4th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38.5% (88th of 138) | 31.8% (127th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 (118th of 138) | 1.44 (93rd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.11 (72nd of 138) | 0.56 (137th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.057 (107th of 138) | 0.048 (109th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.152 (105th of 138) | 0.180 (118th of 138) |
Key players
- Gael Ochoa (Rice): Abell confirmed him as the starter, and he produced five touchdowns in his first career start against Florida Atlantic.
- Jacurri Brown (Rice): He has 685 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, but his role after splitting snaps at North Texas is unconfirmed.
- Tyvonn Byars (Rice): Rice's lead back has 497 rushing yards on 105 carries this season.
- Koa Akui (Rice): He has 9.0 tackles for loss this season, with 2.0 sacks over the last three games.
- Johnnie Daniels (Tulane): He has 252 rushing yards over his last three games at 8.1 yards per carry.
- Trace Johnson (Tulane): He threw four interceptions over the last three games and isn't confirmed as Saturday's starter.
- Destyn Hill (Tulane): Tulane's top target has 36 catches for 445 yards this season.
- Makai Williams (Tulane): He leads Tulane's front with 7.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks.
Numbers that matter
| Rice rushing yards per game | 271.0 | Ranks fourth nationally and accounts for nearly all of the triple option's production. |
|---|---|---|
| Tulane rushing yards allowed per game | 215.3 | Ranks 134th of 138, the weakness Rice's offense is built to attack. |
| Tulane success rate | 35.9% | Ranks 134th, even though Tulane is fourth in explosiveness, so its offense depends on big plays. |
| Rice average starting field position | 24.2 | Worst in the country, and Tulane's seventh-ranked net punting could keep it that way. |
| Our fair spread | Rice -1.5 | One point shorter than the market's 2.5, a slight lean toward Tulane. |
Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls: quick answers
Who is favored in Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
Rice is favored by 2.5 points (Rice -2.5).
What is the over/under for Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
The total is 48 points.
When is Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Where is Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls played?
Rice Stadium.
Where is the money on Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulane Green Wave: 77% of bets, 49% of the money; Rice Owls: 24% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Rice Owls -2.5: 69% of bets, 76% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +2.5: 31% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 78% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 48.5: 22% of bets, 1% of the money.