Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars prediction: South Alabama's porous defense offers Troy's stalled offense a lifeline
Troy has owned the Battle for the Belt, but its offense has barely moved for a month, and South Alabama's defense is the one unit that could fix it.
| Spread | South Alabama -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 55.5 |
- A run-heavy, mistake-driven game where Troy's ground attack tests a defense that rarely gets off the field, with South Alabama slightly better positioned.
- Troy's run game against a South Alabama defense ranked 137th of 138 in success rate allowed.
- Our model makes South Alabama a 3.31-point favorite with a 55.96 total, essentially the market's number.
A defense that bends everywhere
Troy has won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this rivalry and 5 of 7 in Mobile. It arrives Saturday night with an offense that has barely functioned for a month, against a South Alabama team riding a three-game losing streak. Both sit at 4-5 and 2-3 in the Sun Belt, so the Belt and some standing are both at stake.
The Jaguars' defense is the reason Troy has a path. South Alabama allows a 50.3% success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, which ranks 137th of 138. Its rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) ranks 135th. Opponents average 6.86 yards per play, also 135th. The front does not disrupt much either: 3.89 tackles for loss per game ranks 125th, and line yards allowed per carry rank 115th.
The recent trend offers no relief. Over the last three games, South Alabama allowed a 47.8% success rate.
Troy needs its run game
Troy's offense has been grim. Its season success rate of 37.5% ranks 124th, and over the last three games it fell to 29.8%. Third down is a particular problem: Troy converts 31.3%, 130th in the country.
The one functioning piece is the ground game, at 177.6 rushing yards per game (43rd). Our projection has Troy running for 173 yards here, a run-first, slow plan. Gavin Griffin has scored in each of his last three games, though on just 3.3 yards per carry. If Troy can stay ahead of the chains on early downs against this defense, it avoids the third-and-long situations where its passing game, 132nd in passing EPA, cannot rescue it.
Troy has also been hard to read. It lost at home to UL Monroe as a 13.5-point favorite, then won outright at James Madison as a 17.5-point underdog. Last week Louisiana Tech routed it 41-17.
Two quarterback questions
Bishop Davenport returned for South Alabama last week after missing six games with an injury and started the 28-26 loss at Louisiana. His return matters because the passing game had cratered without him: Jared Hollins completed 43.2% over his last three appearances, including 12 of 33 against Marshall. Brendan Jenkins (552 yards) and Anthony Eager (6 touchdowns) give Davenport real targets.
Troy hasn't confirmed its starter. Our projection lists Tucker Kilcrease, who accounted for three touchdowns in last year's 31-24 overtime win. Will Crowder's most recent logged game was a 50-yard passing day against UL Monroe.
The pass rush tilts toward Troy. Donnie Smith has 7 sacks, including one in each of his last three games, and South Alabama's line allows 1.33 sacks per game (30th). Troy's line is the shakier group, allowing havoc on 18.5% of plays (126th).
Where the hidden yards go
Troy's kicking is a liability. It has made 9 of 16 field goals, and its average starting field position ranks 132nd. Opponents start at their own 31.8 against Troy, 135th.
South Alabama has its own leak: a gross punting average of 37.7 yards ranks 137th. Its kick return game, averaging 26.1 yards (15th), helps make up the difference.
The turnover battle is the swing. South Alabama gives the ball away just 0.78 times per game (18th), while Troy takes it away 1.67 times per game (also 18th). Justin Powe picked off three passes at James Madison, the kind of afternoon that swings a game.
The number and the script
South Alabama is a 3-point home favorite, unchanged from the open, with the total at 55.5. Troy is 3-6 against the spread this season; South Alabama is 5-4.
The Jaguars run for 207.1 yards per game (18th), and our projection has them at 194 here. That matters for game script: when a favorite covers, its rushing has gone over its line 33.9% of the time in our tested sample, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. A South Alabama cover probably runs through Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin.
Where the money is on Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars
On the Kalshi moneyline: Troy Trojans: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; South Alabama Jaguars: 41% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Alabama Jaguars -2.5: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; Troy Trojans +2.5: 25% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 55.5: 33% of bets, 6% of the money; Under 55.5: 67% of bets, 94% of the money.
Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars stats (this season)
| Stat | Troy Trojans | South Alabama Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 22.3 (105th of 138) | 32.4 (39th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.2 (83rd of 138) | 32.2 (121st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.16 (115th of 138) | 5.87 (58th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.38 (59th of 138) | 6.86 (135th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 181.0 (120th of 138) | 206.1 (93rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.6 (43rd of 138) | 207.1 (18th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 31.3% (130th of 138) | 40.0% (74th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 (118th of 138) | 0.78 (18th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 (18th of 138) | 1.33 (45th of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.003 (124th of 138) | 0.153 (57th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.047 (52nd of 138) | 0.244 (131st of 138) |
Key players
- Donnie Smith (Troy): Leads Troy with 7 sacks and has 3 over his last three games.
- Justin Powe (Troy): Intercepted three passes in the upset at James Madison.
- Gavin Griffin (Troy): Has scored in each of his last three games despite averaging 3.3 yards per carry in that stretch.
- Noreel White (Troy): Has 110 receiving yards over his last three games, the most among Troy receivers.
- Brendan Jenkins (South Alabama): Leads the Jaguars with 552 receiving yards, including 101 at Louisiana last week.
- Anthony Eager (South Alabama): Has 6 touchdown catches, two of them against Louisiana Tech.
- Keenan Phillips (South Alabama): Averages 5.1 yards per carry on a team-high 595 rushing yards.
- PJ Martin (South Alabama): Leads South Alabama with 7 rushing touchdowns.
Numbers that matter
| South Alabama success rate allowed | 50.3% | Ranks 137th of 138, the clearest opening Troy's offense will get. |
|---|---|---|
| Troy third-down conversion | 31.3% | Ranks 130th, so Troy has to win on early downs to exploit that defense. |
| Troy field goals | 9/16 | Missed kicks could cost Troy points in a game priced at 3. |
| South Alabama turnovers per game | 0.78 | Ranks 18th, against a Troy defense that is 18th in takeaways. |
| Rivalry record | 7 of 8 | Troy has won 7 of the last 8 meetings. |
Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars: quick answers
Who is favored in Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?
South Alabama is favored by 3 points (South Alabama -3).
What is the over/under for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?
The total is 55.5 points.
When is Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars played?
Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where is the money on Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Troy Trojans: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; South Alabama Jaguars: 41% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Alabama Jaguars -2.5: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; Troy Trojans +2.5: 25% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 55.5: 33% of bets, 6% of the money; Under 55.5: 67% of bets, 94% of the money.