San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons prediction: Evan Medders takes over Air Force's top-ranked ground game
Liam Szarka is done for the season, but San José State's sack-heavy defense is built for an opponent that throws, and Air Force barely does.
| Spread | Air Force -12 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 47.5 |
- Air Force grinds out long drives on the ground while San José State's stalled offense struggles to stay on schedule in cold conditions.
- Air Force's offensive line, first nationally in line yards, against an SJSU defense that ranks 115th in success rate allowed.
- Our fair line is Air Force -12.35 with a 47.3 total, right on the market; our first-half line is Air Force -7.15.
Push up front decides it
Air Force lost its starting quarterback for the season and still beat Army. Now the Falcons, 7-2 and still alive in the Mountain West title race, hand the offense to Evan Medders against a San José State team sitting one win from a bowl.
The engine is the line. Air Force runs for 332.0 yards per game, first among 138 FBS teams. It also leads the country in line yards per carry (how much push the blockers create before the back is on his own) at 3.68. The Falcons rank first in havoc allowed at 6.3%, meaning defenses almost never blow up a play against them.
San José State's defense is built for a different opponent. The Spartans average 3.6 sacks per game, fourth nationally. Against a team that throws for 61.2 yards a game, that pass rush has little to chase. The soft spot is down after down: SJSU allows a 44.2% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule), which ranks 115th, and its stuff rate ranks 102nd.
SJSU's best trait is limiting big plays, eighth nationally in explosiveness allowed. That matters less against an offense ranked 138th in explosiveness that doesn't need chunk gains. Air Force converts 51.2% of third downs, 10th in the country. Kemper Hodges showed the blueprint against UConn with 200 yards and four touchdowns on 35 carries.
Medders inherits the keys
Szarka will miss the rest of the season with a lower-leg injury from the Navy win. He had run for 391 yards and seven touchdowns in four games. Medders, back from turf toe, was eased in at Army and threw the fourth-quarter touchdown to Simon Kibbee that clinched the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. He is healthy and expected to carry a bigger workload this week.
He has 549 rushing yards at 6.4 per carry this season, though Army held him to 59 yards on 13 carries. Hodges, who ran for 119 yards at Army, keeps the load shared. Air Force also protects the ball, with 0.78 turnovers per game (18th) and just 0.67 sacks allowed per game (fifth).
Spartans stuck behind the chains
Daniel Rolovich is expected to start again after the 30-19 win over Northern Illinois, a game SJSU pulled away from with a 17-0 second-half run. He replaced Luke Weaver, who threw three interceptions and no touchdowns over his last three games.
The offense around Rolovich has sputtered. SJSU's success rate over its last three games is 27.7%, and it converts 30.4% of third downs, 132nd nationally. The run game ranks 118th at 116.9 yards per game, and Jabari Bates has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over his last three.
There is an opening. Air Force ranks 135th in tackles for loss and 113th in sacks, so Rolovich should have time to find Carson Clark. And Air Force bends badly near the goal line, allowing 4.26 points per scoring opportunity, 127th nationally. The catch: SJSU scores just 3.11 points per trip, 117th, so it has to finish the few drives it gets.
Stakes, cold and the number
Air Force opened at -12 and hasn't moved, with the total at 47.5. Our fair line is Air Force by 12.35 with a 47.3 total, essentially the market's view, and we give the Falcons a 78.0% chance to win. Our fair first half is Air Force -7.15 with a total of 24.54.
The role change is worth noting. Air Force covered as an underdog against UNLV, UConn and Army, and its one recent stumble as a favorite was a 28-14 loss at Wyoming as 7-point favorites. Kickoff should be near 38 degrees with precipitation in the forecast, conditions that favor the team that doesn't need to throw. When favorites cover, their rushing tends to clear its line as well, which fits the script Air Force wants.
Where the money is on San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Jose State Spartans: 12% of bets, 2% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 88% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Air Force Falcons -11.5: 70% of bets, 90% of the money; San Jose State Spartans +11.5: 30% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 26% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 47.5: 75% of bets, 10% of the money.
San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons stats (this season)
| Stat | San Jose State Spartans | Air Force Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 | 7-2 |
| Points per game | 20.9 (115th of 138) | 28.7 (66th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 (46th of 138) | 21.4 (42nd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.38 (103rd of 138) | 5.47 (99th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 (53rd of 138) | 5.62 (82nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 228.2 (71st of 138) | 61.2 (138th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.9 (118th of 138) | 332.0 (1st of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 30.4% (132nd of 138) | 51.2% (10th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 (37th of 138) | 0.78 (18th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 (44th of 138) | 0.89 (113th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.077 (97th of 138) | 0.207 (33rd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.037 (45th of 138) | 0.089 (74th of 138) |
Key players
- Evan Medders (Air Force): Takes over for Szarka after rushing for 549 yards at 6.4 per carry this season.
- Kemper Hodges (Air Force): Has 322 rushing yards and five touchdowns over his last three games, including 200 against UConn.
- Simon Kibbee (Air Force): Caught the game-winner against Army and leads the listed receivers with 166 yards this season.
- Blake Fletcher (Air Force): Leads the defense with 85 tackles and needs a big night against the run.
- Carson Clark (San José State): The Spartans' top target with 61 catches for 689 yards and five touchdowns.
- Jayland McGlothen (San José State): Has 7.0 sacks, though Air Force allows just 0.67 per game.
- Dylan Lee (San José State): Has 88 tackles and four interceptions, two in the last three games.
- Viliami Teu (San José State): Scored twice against Northern Illinois and has five rushing touchdowns this season.
Numbers that matter
| Air Force line yards per carry | 3.68 | First nationally, the push behind the country's top rushing offense. |
|---|---|---|
| SJSU success rate allowed | 44.2% | Ranks 115th, a bad sign against an offense that wins on efficiency. |
| SJSU third-down conversion | 30.4% | Ranks 132nd, which limits possessions in a game Air Force wants to shorten. |
| Air Force points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | Ranks 127th, the one place SJSU can steal points. |
| Our fair spread | -12.35 | Air Force by a hair more than the market's -12. |
San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons: quick answers
Who is favored in San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?
Air Force is favored by 12 points (Air Force -12).
What is the over/under for San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?
The total is 47.5 points.
When is San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons played?
Falcon Stadium.
Where is the money on San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Jose State Spartans: 12% of bets, 2% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 88% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Air Force Falcons -11.5: 70% of bets, 90% of the money; San Jose State Spartans +11.5: 30% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 26% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 47.5: 75% of bets, 10% of the money.