Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack prediction: Umari Hatcher and Syracuse aim at NC State's sinking pass defense
Two 4-5 ACC teams chasing bowl eligibility, with Syracuse's passing game facing an NC State secondary that has been giving away big plays under an interim staff.
| Spread | Syracuse -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 53.5 |
- Expect a tight game decided through the air, since both run games face fronts that stuff runs at the line.
- Syracuse's receivers, led by Umari Hatcher, against an NC State pass defense ranked 116th in passing EPA allowed.
- Our model makes Syracuse a 2.3-point favorite, 0.7 points short of the market, and matches the 53.5 total.
Throwing into the soft spot
Saturday's noon kickoff at Carter-Finley is NC State's Senior Day, and both teams arrive at 4-5 needing wins to reach a bowl. The likeliest path to one runs through NC State's secondary.
The Wolfpack rank 116th of 138 in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per pass play). They give up 233.8 passing yards a game, 103rd nationally, and rank 105th in explosiveness allowed, a measure of how much damage opponents do on their successful plays.
Syracuse throws for 273.1 yards a game, 22nd in the country. Umari Hatcher carries that offense with 62 catches for 964 yards and 8 touchdowns. His recent form is the worry: he caught just 2 passes for 12 yards against Clemson. Calvin Russell III has picked up the slack with 16 catches for 207 yards over the last three games.
The catch is accuracy. Steve Angeli completes 55.0% of his passes and went 18 of 40 against Clemson. NC State's one defensive strength is getting off the field: it allows a 33.3% third-down conversion rate, 29th nationally. If Angeli keeps leaving throws on the field, that number bails the Wolfpack out.
Two run games, two walls
Neither team should expect much on the ground. Syracuse averages 2.71 line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line creates, and that ranks 126th. NC State's defense posts a 23.5% stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, which ranks 20th.
The Wolfpack offense fares no better. It ranks 92nd in rushing EPA per play, and Syracuse's defense owns a 23.7% stuff rate, 17th nationally. Ahmad Miller did give the Orange 101 yards on 20 carries against Clemson, so Syracuse will keep trying.
The bigger edge sits in the Syracuse pass rush. The Orange average 2.67 sacks a game, 21st, and Keyshawn Johnson has 7 sacks on the season, 3 of them in the last three games. CJ Bailey has been efficient overall at 7.8 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, but he managed only 123 passing yards against Duke.
An interim staff, a thin roster
NC State fired Dave Doeren in late October. Todd Goebbel is the interim head coach, with Kurt Roper running the offense. The results since have been rough: a 28-31 loss at Stanford as a 7.5-point favorite, then a 41-3 home loss to Duke.
Over the last three games, the Wolfpack defense has allowed 0.216 EPA per play. The injury list is long. Popo Aguirre and Ronnie Royal III were both hurt against Duke and are out, along with nine others. Leading receiver Keenan Jackson (477 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Harvey Dyson III were questionable on Wednesday's report, and backup quarterback Will Wilson is out.
Syracuse has its own quarterback attrition. Amari Odom is out for the season after shoulder surgery, and Malachi Nelson is doubtful. Angeli has played through ankle bursitis. Starting guard Jayden Mann's status for Saturday is unconfirmed after Fran Brown gave an injury update on him Monday.
The Orange have been battle-tested. Their FBS opponents average a 5.3 SP+ rating, against 2.8 for NC State's. Syracuse also covered three straight as an underdog before the Clemson loss.
Syracuse's kicking problem
In a game lined at a field goal, Syracuse's special teams are a real liability. The Orange have made 14 of 22 field goals and rank last in the country in extra-point percentage at 81.5%. NC State hasn't missed an extra point and has made 9 of 11 field goals.
Syracuse also gives back yards with flags, averaging 83.8 penalty yards a game, 137th of 138. Red-zone stalls defined the Clemson loss, and Brown took responsibility, saying his coaching was not at its best. The Orange rank 89th in points per scoring opportunity. A missed kick or a drive killed by a penalty can swing a cover by itself.
Where the number lands
The line opened with NC State getting 2.5 and has moved to Syracuse by 3, with the total at 53.5. Our model makes Syracuse a 2.3-point favorite and projects a 27.9-25.6 game, giving NC State a 44.0% chance to win.
That leaves our number 0.7 points friendlier to the Wolfpack than the market, a small gap on the key number of 3. The total matches our figure exactly. Syracuse has won the last two meetings, including 24-17 here in 2024.
Where the money is on Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack
On the Kalshi moneyline: Syracuse Orange: 46% of bets, 23% of the money; NC State Wolfpack: 54% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Syracuse Orange -2.5: 55% of bets, 38% of the money; NC State Wolfpack +2.5: 45% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 53.5: 88% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 53.5: 13% of bets, 0% of the money.
Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack stats (this season)
| Stat | Syracuse Orange | NC State Wolfpack |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 29.3 (60th of 138) | 28.9 (64th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 (74th of 138) | 27.6 (97th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.45 (100th of 138) | 5.70 (80th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51 (74th of 138) | 5.93 (106th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 273.1 (22nd of 138) | 242.2 (47th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.9 (66th of 138) | 144.8 (84th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.7% (76th of 138) | 48.5% (18th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 (77th of 138) | 1.11 (49th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 (45th of 138) | 1.00 (92nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.082 (91st of 138) | 0.166 (51st of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.079 (66th of 138) | 0.155 (108th of 138) |
Key players
- Steve Angeli (Syracuse): He has completed 55.0% of his passes this season with 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
- Umari Hatcher (Syracuse): He leads the Orange with 964 receiving yards but managed just 12 against Clemson.
- Keyshawn Johnson (Syracuse): He has 7 sacks this season, 3 of them over the last three games.
- Ahmad Miller (Syracuse): He ran for 101 yards on 20 carries against Clemson.
- CJ Bailey (NC State): He averages 7.8 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns against 4 interceptions.
- Keenan Jackson (NC State): The questionable receiver leads the team with 477 yards and 6 touchdowns.
- Elijah Satchell (NC State): He has 5 sacks this season, including 2 in the last three games.
- Davion Gause (NC State): He doubles as a receiver with 25 catches for 218 yards.
Numbers that matter
| NC State passing EPA allowed rank | 116th | Syracuse's passing offense, 22nd in yards per game, gets a favorable target. |
|---|---|---|
| Syracuse extra-point percentage | 81.5% | Last in the country, a real risk in a game lined at 3. |
| Syracuse line yards per carry | 2.71 | Ranks 126th, against an NC State front that stuffs 23.5% of runs. |
| Syracuse sacks per game | 2.67 | Ranks 21st, giving the Orange a pass-rush edge. |
| Spread gap vs market | 0.7 | Our number makes Syracuse a 2.3-point favorite, against a market line of 3. |
Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack: quick answers
Who is favored in Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack?
Syracuse is favored by 3 points (Syracuse -3).
What is the over/under for Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack?
The total is 53.5 points.
When is Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where is Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack played?
Carter-Finley Stadium.
Where is the money on Syracuse Orange vs NC State Wolfpack?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Syracuse Orange: 46% of bets, 23% of the money; NC State Wolfpack: 54% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Syracuse Orange -2.5: 55% of bets, 38% of the money; NC State Wolfpack +2.5: 45% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 53.5: 88% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 53.5: 13% of bets, 0% of the money.