Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prediction: Louisiana Tech's havoc defense awaits John White's second start

Chaos waiting for White

Southern Miss has no margin left. Blake Anderson says his team must win its final three games to reach six wins, and the first of those comes in Ruston against a Louisiana Tech team that is 5-0 in Sun Belt play and already bowl eligible for the third straight season.

The problem is the Bulldogs' defense. Tech's havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) is 22.8%, 3rd of 138. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 8th. Tech also forces 2.33 takeaways a game, 3rd nationally. Over its last three games it has allowed -0.146 EPA per play (expected points added) and just 12.3 points a game.

Southern Miss arrives with the profile that defense feeds on. The Golden Eagles convert 29.8% of third downs, 136th, and their passing EPA ranks 128th. Anderson handed the job to John White for the James Madison game, a 54-23 loss that turned on a late first-half swing. Before that, Landy Lyddy averaged 4.9 yards per attempt over his last three games. White now faces Jackson, who has 9.0 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss this season and capped the Troy win with a 66-yard scoop-and-score.

The Baker question

Tech's offense runs through Blake Baker, and nobody knows yet if he plays. Baker left the 41-17 win at Troy with a lower-body injury. Cumbie said "I don't believe it to be long term," and added that Baker moved better in a boot cast after a follow-up X-ray Monday. He will be monitored through the week.

The stakes are real. Baker is completing 72.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns against one interception, and Tech's passing EPA ranks 25th. Trey Kukuk took over under center against Troy and would start if Baker can't go. The spread opened at Tech -17.5 and hasn't moved, so the market is either confident in Baker or confident in the defense regardless.

Southern Miss's pass defense ranks 100th in passing EPA allowed but 29th in explosiveness allowed, so it tends to bleed long drives rather than long plays. Its best weapon is the rush: 2.44 sacks per game, 40th, against a Tech line allowing 2.33 a game, 98th. A hobbled Baker or a less experienced Kukuk would feel that more.

Two run games, opposite directions

Southern Miss's run defense is close to the worst in the country, allowing 218.0 rushing yards a game, 135th. Its stuff rate ranks 114th. That should be a gift, except Tech can't run either: its line yards per carry (the rushing credit owed to the offensive line) rank 124th, and Andrew Burnette has averaged 3.1 yards a carry over his last three games. Dylone Brooks is dealing with turf toe, and Cumbie said his status for the rest of the season is in question.

The Golden Eagles' real strength is on the ground. Steven Robinson ran for 350 yards at 6.0 a carry over his last three games, and Jamarice Wilder averaged 8.1 in the same span. But James Madison held Robinson to 54 yards, and Tech allows 2.41 line yards per carry, 8th. If Tech's front wins that matchup too, Southern Miss has nowhere to turn.

Our projection has Tech at 228 rushing yards. In our testing, a favorite covering and its rushing going over move together, so Tech finding its ground game would point toward a comfortable margin.

Soft schedule, shaky kicks

Tech has covered eight of nine games against the spread, including its last four outright wins. Those four came against teams ranked 134th, 123rd, 117th and 116th in SP+. Southern Miss, at 125th, fits right in that group.

The hidden risk for a 17.5-point favorite is kicking. Tech has made 7 of 16 field goals, 135th of 138, so stalled drives may not even yield three points. Southern Miss isn't much better at 5 of 10. Tech's average starting field position ranks 4th, and Southern Miss's gross punting average of 38.5 yards ranks 133rd, so Tech should get short fields. It still has to finish them with touchdowns.

Tech won last year's meeting 30-20 in Ruston.

Where our number lands

Our model makes Tech an 18.5-point favorite with an 88.0% win probability, just 1 point more than the market. Its total of 56.23 sits on top of the 56.5 posted. For the first half, it has Tech -10.85 and a total of 28.76. The best way to read this game is the Baker news: our number already trusts this defense, so a confirmed Baker start matters more than any small gap.