Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos prediction: Dylan Riley and Boise State's Ground Game Face a Wounded Oregon State
Oregon State likely loses the quarterback behind the nation's top passing attack, and its run defense has no answer for Boise State's ground game.
| Spread | Boise State -14.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 65.5 |
- Boise State leans on Dylan Riley and a top-10 run game against a defense that just allowed 386 rushing yards, likely facing a backup quarterback.
- Oregon State's run defense, 103rd in rushing yards allowed, against Boise State's rushing attack, fourth in FBS in EPA per carry.
- Our model makes Boise State a 15.3-point favorite with a total near 65, close to the market's 14.5 and 65.5.
The Broncos Run Downhill
Boise State sits alone atop the Pac-12 at 5-0. Oregon State, tied for second, gets its shot at the leader Saturday night with College GameDay in Boise. The Beavers will probably be without their starting quarterback, and they bring a run defense that just got flattened.
Boise State runs for 237.1 yards per game, seventh in FBS. It is efficient, too: its 0.256 rushing EPA per play (expected points added on each carry) ranks fourth. Dylan Riley carries the load with 1,241 yards at 6.7 per carry, and he has five touchdowns over his last three games.
Oregon State's defense is built poorly for this. The Beavers allow 173.1 rushing yards per game, 103rd in FBS. Their stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) is 17.1%, which ranks 94th. Texas State ran for 386 yards and five touchdowns in Corvallis last week. Over their last three games the Beavers have given up 36.7 points per game. Safety Sai Vadrawale is out after a practice collision, which thins the last line of defense against a back who breaks long runs.
Boise State will play without left guard Carson Rasmussen, who is out with an undisclosed injury. Sire Gaines is questionable with a foot injury. Neither changes the plan. Boise ranks 12th in line yards per carry, and Riley has handled the bulk of the work all season.
Oregon State Without Atkinson
Braden Atkinson is doubtful with a hand injury from the Texas State loss and is not expected to play. Shephard said "hopefully" Atkinson plays, but senior Maalik Murphy is the likely starter, with Brady Jones also possible. Wide receiver Eddie Freauff, who has been missing games with an undisclosed injury, is unconfirmed but will try to suit up.
Few teams would lose more. The Beavers lead FBS at 359.9 passing yards per game. Atkinson has thrown 25 touchdowns, and he has only 3 interceptions. Even before the injury he was cooling: he completed 57.1% of his passes over the last three games and managed 5.3 yards per attempt against Texas State.
The opening a new quarterback could exploit is real. Boise State's defense ranks 138th of 138 in explosiveness allowed, which means its successful plays against it go for big chunks. It also gives up 265.8 passing yards per game, 130th. Jesse Legree has 1,209 yards and 14 touchdowns, and he is the one target a backup will look for. The catch is third down. Boise holds opponents to a 30.8% conversion rate, 15th in FBS, and Oregon State's run game ranks 111th in yards per game, so it offers little cover for a passer who isn't Atkinson.
Boise Stays on Schedule
Boise State rarely hurts itself. The Broncos turn it over 0.56 times per game, fifth in FBS, and their havoc allowed of 9.0% (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup) ranks third. They convert 53.0% of third downs, fourth nationally. Oregon State allows 42.5% on third down, 112th.
The quarterback question cuts both ways, but it cuts less for Boise State. Maddux Madsen is questionable. He practiced this week, and Danielson said the team feels "really good" about him. Madsen has 15 touchdowns and 1 interception this season. If he sits, Max Cutforth has already shown he can handle it: he started the 64-38 win at Colorado State and threw three fourth-quarter touchdowns in the 46-45 comeback over Texas State. Over its last three games Boise's offense produced 0.454 EPA per play, with either quarterback behind center.
The Line Already Moved
Boise State opened as a 4.5-point favorite and now lays 14.5, with the total at 65.5. The quarterback news has been priced in heavily. Oregon State has also slid against the number, losing outright as a favorite to both Fresno State and Texas State.
Our model lands nearly on the market: Boise State by 15.3, a total of 65.01 and an 83.0% chance the Broncos win. Its first-half number is Boise State by 9.56.
One tested pattern fits the likely script. When a favorite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If Boise State pulls away, Riley and the run game are the likeliest reason.
Where the money is on Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oregon State Beavers: 45% of bets, 11% of the money; Boise State Broncos: 55% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boise State Broncos -14.5: 59% of bets, 62% of the money; Oregon State Beavers +14.5: 41% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 65.5: 74% of bets, 75% of the money; Under 65.5: 27% of bets, 25% of the money.
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos stats (this season)
| Stat | Oregon State Beavers | Boise State Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 8-1 |
| Points per game | 38.0 (12th of 138) | 39.0 (10th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.9 (90th of 138) | 25.2 (72nd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.74 (12th of 138) | 6.71 (15th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 (88th of 138) | 6.45 (128th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 359.9 (1st of 138) | 236.6 (58th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.9 (111th of 138) | 237.1 (7th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44.4% (33rd of 138) | 53.0% (4th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.89 (26th of 138) | 0.56 (5th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 (45th of 138) | 0.89 (113th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.256 (15th of 138) | 0.352 (3rd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.129 (93rd of 138) | 0.093 (78th of 138) |
Key players
- Braden Atkinson (Oregon State): Doubtful with a hand injury, he has 3,148 passing yards and 25 touchdowns but completed 57.1% over his last three games.
- Jesse Legree (Oregon State): His 1,209 yards and 14 touchdowns make him the best weapon against a Boise defense ranked 138th in explosiveness allowed.
- AJ Newberry (Oregon State): He averages 6.2 yards per carry on just 81 attempts and adds 303 receiving yards out of the backfield.
- Takari Hickle (Oregon State): The Beavers' pass rusher has 7.0 sacks, including 3.5 over his last three games.
- Dylan Riley (Boise State): He has 1,241 rushing yards at 6.7 per carry and five touchdowns over his last three games.
- Maddux Madsen (Boise State): Questionable but practicing, he has 15 touchdown passes against 1 interception this season.
- Rasean Jones (Boise State): He has caught 4 touchdowns over his last three games and has 661 receiving yards on the season.
- Lopez Sanusi (Boise State): He has 3.5 of his 4.5 sacks over the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Oregon State rushing yards allowed | 173.1 | Per game, 103rd in FBS, against a Boise offense that runs for 237.1. |
|---|---|---|
| Boise rushing EPA per play | 0.256 | Fourth in FBS, the engine behind Boise's offense. |
| Boise explosiveness allowed rank | 138th | Dead last in FBS, the one opening for Oregon State's passing game. |
| Oregon State passing yards per game | 359.9 | First in FBS, built largely by Atkinson, who is doubtful. |
| Boise State opening spread | -4.5 | The line has moved to 14.5 as Oregon State's quarterback news came in. |
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos: quick answers
Who is favored in Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?
Boise State is favored by 14.5 points (Boise State -14.5).
What is the over/under for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?
The total is 65.5 points.
When is Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Where is Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos played?
Albertsons Stadium.
Where is the money on Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oregon State Beavers: 45% of bets, 11% of the money; Boise State Broncos: 55% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boise State Broncos -14.5: 59% of bets, 62% of the money; Oregon State Beavers +14.5: 41% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 65.5: 74% of bets, 75% of the money; Under 65.5: 27% of bets, 25% of the money.