Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Chambliss's Slump Runs Into Oklahoma's Third-Down Wall in Norman
A battered Ole Miss offense that lives on moving the chains faces the defense best built to stop it, while Jason Witten's run-first Sooners test a Rebel defense missing its leading tackler.
| Spread | Oklahoma -1 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 49.5 |
- Expect a tight grind: Oklahoma's defense squeezes a banged-up Ole Miss offense while Witten's Sooners try to run at a thinned Rebel linebacker corps.
- Ole Miss's third-down offense, 17th nationally, against an Oklahoma defense that ranks fourth at getting off the field.
- Our model makes Ole Miss a slim 0.4-point favorite, leaning to the Rebels against Oklahoma -1. Our total of 49.3 sits on the market.
Third Down Decides Norman
Ole Miss has won both meetings in this young series, but the No. 19 Rebels arrive limping after a 42-7 loss to Georgia that ended their home winning streak. Oklahoma is chasing something it hasn't managed all year: back-to-back wins. The game will likely turn on whether Ole Miss can keep doing the one thing that has carried its offense.
That thing is staying on schedule. The Rebels convert 48.8% of their third downs, 17th in the country. They rank 20th in success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) but 119th in explosiveness, so they score by sustaining drives rather than hitting home runs.
Oklahoma's defense is built to end drives. Opponents convert just 27.7% on third down against the Sooners, fourth-best nationally. Brent Venables' unit also ranks 7th in EPA allowed per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard).
Trinidad Chambliss is in the wrong form for that test. Over his last three games he completed 54.2% of his passes. He threw five interceptions in that stretch, three of them at Texas. Ole Miss has protected him well, ranking 17th in sacks allowed, but right guard Patrick Kutas and lineman Carius Curne are both out. Oklahoma averages 2.89 sacks per game, 16th in the country.
Witten Hands Mateer a Run Game
Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle before the Florida game and gave play calling to Jason Witten. The debut was a 23-7 road win as a 5.5-point underdog. On the clinching 89-yard drive, Witten called runs on all but one snap before Mateer hit Isaiah Sategna for the touchdown.
That commitment cuts against the season numbers. The Sooners rank 135th in rushing EPA per play. Their line yards per carry (rushing yards credited to the offensive line) rank 116th. Lloyd Avant has averaged 4.3 yards per carry, and backup Tory Blaylock is questionable.
The opening exists on the other side, though. Ole Miss allows 165.1 rushing yards per game, 95th nationally. Its stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks a healthier 25th, so this front makes plays in the backfield and then gives ground when it misses.
John Mateer has steadied himself through the turmoil. He threw six touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games, and he ran for a season-high 56 yards at Florida. Two Oklahoma linemen remain uncertain: Ryan Fodje is doubtful and Caleb Nitta is questionable.
Ole Miss's Thinning Two-Deep
The Rebel injury list reaches every level. Running back Kewan Lacy is out with a dislocated shoulder, which leaves the backfield to Makhi Frazier, who had four carries for 8 yards against Georgia.
The defense is worse off. Leading tackler Keaton Thomas is out with an ankle injury, as are linebackers Ant Davis Jr. and JaMichael Garrett. Safeties Gerald Lacy and Nascar McCoy are also out, MJ Preston is doubtful, and Sharif Denson and edge rusher Kam Franklin are questionable. Edwin Joseph misses another game after ankle surgery.
That matters because this defense already struggled to get off the field. Ole Miss allows 43.9% on third down, 120th nationally. Over the last three games it allowed 0.218 EPA per play against Texas, Auburn and Georgia, a stretch that included two top-five SP+ opponents. Oklahoma's offense isn't Georgia's, but a patched-together back seven against a quarterback who isn't turning the ball over is a real problem for the Rebels.
Giveaways, Line and Our Number
Both offenses are generous with the ball. Ole Miss ranks 111th in turnovers per game and Oklahoma ranks 118th, so a single takeaway could swing a game the market prices this tightly. Peyton Bowen, available after being a game-time decision last week, has three interceptions for the Sooners.
The market has moved toward Oklahoma. The Sooners opened as 2.5-point underdogs and now sit as 1-point favorites across 24 books, with the total at 49.5.
Our model doesn't follow that move all the way. It makes Ole Miss a 0.4-point favorite and gives Oklahoma a 49.0% chance to win. The fair total of 49.3 is right on the market number, so the only daylight is on the side, and it's narrow.
Where the money is on Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ole Miss Rebels: 62% of bets, 74% of the money; Oklahoma Sooners: 38% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oklahoma Sooners -1.5: 40% of bets, 3% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels +1.5: 60% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 25% of bets, 33% of the money; Under 49.5: 75% of bets, 67% of the money.
Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners stats (this season)
| Stat | Ole Miss Rebels | Oklahoma Sooners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Points per game | 33.8 (30th of 138) | 22.1 (107th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 (81st of 138) | 19.2 (24th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.85 (63rd of 138) | 5.14 (117th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69 (90th of 138) | 5.06 (36th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 271.4 (23rd of 138) | 227.6 (73rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.3 (80th of 138) | 110.9 (125th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 48.8% (17th of 138) | 39.1% (80th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.56 (111th of 138) | 1.67 (118th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 (45th of 138) | 1.44 (37th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.200 (35th of 138) | 0.029 (115th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.143 (101st of 138) | -0.070 (7th of 138) |
Key players
- Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss): Probable and starting, but he has thrown five interceptions with a 5.7 yards-per-attempt average over his last three games.
- Horatio Fields (Ole Miss): His form is the steadiest in the passing game: 219 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games.
- Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss): Listed probable, the team's leading receiver has 669 yards on 48 catches this season.
- Suntarine Perkins (Ole Miss): Has 2.0 sacks and 4.0 tackles for loss over the last three games, the pass rush's best recent form.
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): Six touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last three games as the offense changed play callers.
- Isaiah Sategna (Oklahoma): Leads the Sooners with 625 receiving yards and caught the clinching touchdown at Florida.
- Owen Heinecke (Oklahoma): The engine of the defense with 75 tackles and 10.0 tackles for loss this season.
- Peyton Bowen (Oklahoma): Available this week after a game-time call last week, he has three interceptions this season.
Numbers that matter
| Oklahoma 3rd-down defense | 27.7% | Fourth nationally, a direct threat to an Ole Miss offense that wins by moving the chains. |
|---|---|---|
| Chambliss INTs, last 3 games | 5 | A sharp turn for a quarterback facing a defense ranked 12th in passing EPA allowed. |
| Oklahoma rushing EPA rank | 135th | The weakness Witten is trying to fix by leaning on the run. |
| Ole Miss defense, last 3 games | 0.218 | EPA allowed per play against Texas, Auburn and Georgia, before losing its leading tackler. |
| Spread now | -1.0 | Oklahoma opened as a 2.5-point underdog; our number has Ole Miss by 0.4. |
Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners: quick answers
Who is favored in Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners?
Oklahoma is favored by 1 points (Oklahoma -1).
What is the over/under for Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners?
The total is 49.5 points.
When is Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET.
Where is Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners played?
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
Where is the money on Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ole Miss Rebels: 62% of bets, 74% of the money; Oklahoma Sooners: 38% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oklahoma Sooners -1.5: 40% of bets, 3% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels +1.5: 60% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 25% of bets, 33% of the money; Under 49.5: 75% of bets, 67% of the money.