Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction: Nicco Marchiol Inherits Northwestern's Run Game Against Ohio State's Wall
With both starting quarterbacks out, Northwestern's best path is the ground game, and that runs straight into one of the stingiest run defenses in the country.
| Spread | Ohio State -14 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 44.5 |
- Ohio State's front smothers a Northwestern run game already weakened without Aidan Chiles. A freshman-led Buckeye offense does just enough around Jeremiah Smith.
- Northwestern's ground game against an Ohio State front allowing 2.37 line yards per carry, sixth in FBS.
- Our model lands almost exactly on the market: Ohio State by about 14, roughly 29-15.
Marchiol Versus the Wall
Neither team gets its starting quarterback. Both have lost two straight, and Ohio State fired a coordinator this week. The Buckeyes are still 14-point favorites, because this game hinges on whether Nicco Marchiol can move the ball against a front that rarely gives anything up on the ground.
Northwestern runs for 190.2 yards per game, 32nd of 138. Much of that ran through Aidan Chiles, who scored 10 rushing touchdowns before an upper-body injury. He is out for a second straight game. Marchiol, a redshirt junior transfer from West Virginia, started the loss to Iowa, and the ground game stalled: Caleb Komolafe carried 7 times for 25 yards.
This matchup is harder. Ohio State allows 2.37 line yards per carry, a measure of how much push blockers get, sixth-best in FBS. The Buckeyes also stuff 24.2% of runs at or behind the line, 11th nationally. If the run game stalls, Marchiol faces obvious passing downs behind a line that allows 2.67 sacks per game, 113th. His likeliest escape valve is Griffin Wilde, who went for 146 yards at Oregon.
A Freshman and Jeremiah Smith
Julian Sayin hasn't played since the Oct. 17 win at Indiana, and Ryan Day has called him out "indefinitely." True freshman Luke Fahey makes his second start.
The offense has sagged. Over the last three games, Ohio State's success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, fell to 39.3%. Its season mark is 47.5%. Jeremiah Smith remains the constant, with 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, including 133 yards against Oregon. The cast around him is thin. Brandon Inniss, Brock Boyd and Phillip Bell are all questionable, and tight end Max LeBlanc is out.
Northwestern's defense limits big plays and ranks 19th in explosiveness allowed. It lets offenses stay on schedule, though, ranking 93rd in success rate allowed. That points the Buckeyes toward Bo Jackson. Northwestern gives up 3.0 line yards per carry, 88th. Ja'Kobi Jackson's status is unconfirmed after a single report listed him out.
Day's Worst Stretch
Ohio State led Oregon 14-0, then allowed 38 straight points. The loss gave the Buckeyes three losses for the first time in Day's tenure and likely ended their Big Ten and playoff hopes. On Monday, Day fired special teams coordinator Robby Discher and said "there needs to be accountability," adding that it "starts with the staff."
The defense has slipped against a hard stretch. It allowed 28.7 points per game across Indiana, USC and Oregon. Northwestern brings one more storyline: former Ohio State coordinator Chip Kelly now runs its offense, and David Braun said the connection "might run a little bit deeper." History offers the Wildcats little comfort. They haven't won at Ohio Stadium since 1971, and Ohio State has won 16 straight against them there.
Where Northwestern Hangs Around
Northwestern doesn't beat itself. The Wildcats commit 0.33 turnovers per game, second nationally, so Ohio State likely won't get short fields from giveaways.
The kicking game cuts the other way. Northwestern nets 37.1 yards per punt, 126th, and Iowa returned a kickoff for a touchdown last week. Hidden yardage like that is how a two-score game stays a two-score game.
Market and Model
The line opened at Ohio State -9.5 and has moved to 14, even though the Buckeyes have failed to cover as favorites against Maryland, USC and Oregon. The total sits at 44.5.
Our number agrees with the move. It makes Ohio State roughly a 29.1 to 15.0 winner and gives the Buckeyes an 81% chance to win. If Ohio State covers, our testing says its rushing tends to run over its line, and Northwestern's passing tends to go under.
Where the money is on Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northwestern Wildcats: 69% of bets, 50% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 31% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -13.5: 44% of bets, 84% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats +13.5: 56% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 78% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 45.5: 22% of bets, 64% of the money.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes stats (this season)
| Stat | Northwestern Wildcats | Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Points per game | 31.0 (49th of 138) | 35.7 (21st of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3 (28th of 138) | 18.3 (21st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.44 (27th of 138) | 6.66 (18th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 (75th of 138) | 4.59 (15th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 231.0 (67th of 138) | 320.2 (8th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.2 (32nd of 138) | 147.7 (79th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 42.7% (44th of 138) | 44.1% (36th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 (2nd of 138) | 1.11 (49th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 (18th of 138) | 1.22 (62nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.261 (13th of 138) | 0.230 (25th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.042 (48th of 138) | -0.032 (20th of 138) |
Key players
- Caleb Komolafe (Northwestern): Averages 5.8 yards per carry on the season but managed 25 yards on 7 carries against Iowa.
- Griffin Wilde (Northwestern): Leads the team with 813 receiving yards and posted 146 at Oregon.
- Braydon Brus (Northwestern): Has 13.5 tackles for loss, the disruption a defense that ranks 104th in sacks needs.
- Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): Has 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, including 133 yards against Oregon.
- Bo Jackson (Ohio State): Has 685 rushing yards and ran for 121 against USC.
- Jaylen McClain (Ohio State): Leads the listed defenders with 2 interceptions against an offense that rarely turns it over.
Numbers that matter
| OSU line yards allowed per carry | 2.37 | Sixth in FBS, a brutal matchup for a Northwestern offense built on the run. |
|---|---|---|
| NU sacks allowed per game | 2.67 | Ranks 113th, a risk for a backup quarterback forced into passing downs. |
| OSU success rate, last 3 games | 39.3% | Down from 47.5% for the season as the Buckeye offense has stalled. |
| NU turnovers per game | 0.33 | Second nationally, so Ohio State likely won't get free possessions. |
| Opening spread | -9.5 | The line has since moved to Ohio State -14. |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes: quick answers
Who is favored in Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Ohio State is favored by 14 points (Ohio State -14).
What is the over/under for Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
The total is 44.5 points.
When is Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where is Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes played?
Ohio Stadium.
Where is the money on Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northwestern Wildcats: 69% of bets, 50% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 31% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -13.5: 44% of bets, 84% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats +13.5: 56% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 78% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 45.5: 22% of bets, 64% of the money.