New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears prediction: James Jones and the Aggies' ground game test Missouri State's run defense
Missouri State can throw it, but a front that ranks 128th in line yards allowed hands New Mexico State's best player a path in a game priced at 1.5.
| Spread | Missouri State -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- A tight, ugly game: New Mexico State leans on James Jones while Missouri State throws to Isaiah Myers, and turnovers decide it.
- James Jones against Missouri State's run defense, which allows 177.0 rushing yards per game, 110th in FBS.
- We make Missouri State a 1.13-point favorite against a market line of 1.5, with a fair total of 48.97. That's close to the market.
Bowl hopes on a slim margin
Missouri State's bowl hopes are running out. The Bears lost a 23-20 heartbreaker at FIU last week, when an intentional grounding call on third down at the FIU 22 ended their final drive. Now they host New Mexico State, another 3-6 team, before closing against the top two teams in Conference USA. This is only the second meeting between the programs and the Aggies' first trip to Springfield. Last year in Las Cruces, Missouri State won 24-17 in overtime.
The ratings barely separate these teams: Missouri State is 121st in SP+ and New Mexico State is 126th. The edges sit in specific spots, and the biggest one belongs to the visitors.
Where Jones finds room
James Jones is the best player on the Aggies' offense. He has run for 940 yards at 6.1 yards per carry, and he went for 178 against Sam Houston and 112 against Jacksonville State before Liberty held him to 51.
Missouri State is poorly built to stop him. The Bears allow 3.26 line yards per carry, a measure of how far opposing runners get on the yards the blockers create, and that ranks 128th. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 15.5%, which ranks 115th. New Mexico State's line is respectable at 53rd in line yards, and the Aggies call themselves run-first.
The matchup flips when Missouri State has the ball. The Bears rank 123rd in rushing EPA (expected points added per play), and Connor Lair averages 4.0 yards per carry. The Aggies' stuff rate of 21.2% ranks 37th. Missouri State is unlikely to run its way out of trouble.
Belin and Myers through the air
Missouri State's offense lives on Henry Belin IV and Isaiah Myers. Belin has averaged 8.5 yards per attempt over his last three games, and Myers has 940 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season. His 242-yard day at Delaware shows how high his ceiling is.
This is the Aggies' most competent unit. New Mexico State ranks 38th in passing EPA allowed, far better than its overall profile, and it has 6.0 tackles for loss per game, 39th nationally. Belin cooled at FIU, completing 19 of 35, and the Bears convert only 36.6% of third downs. Jmariyae Robinson, with 50 catches, gives Belin a steadier option underneath.
The Aggies have their own big-play threat. AJ Williams III has 4 touchdowns in his last three games, including 150 yards against Liberty. Missouri State ranks 119th in passing EPA allowed.
The Aggies' quarterback question
New Mexico State hasn't confirmed a starter. Before the Liberty game, Sanchez said he "wouldn't be surprised" to see a different quarterback, and Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod took "the lion's share" of the reps. Hedden threw the opening-drive touchdown to Williams and finished 19 of 29 for 256 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Interceptions are Hedden's problem. He has 8 this season against 7 touchdowns, and the Aggies give the ball away 1.89 times per game, 131st in FBS. The offense has also slipped lately, averaging 14.7 points over its last three games. Those games came against a tougher schedule than Missouri State has played, though. The Aggies' FBS opponents average an SP+ of -1.8, compared with -6.3 for the Bears.
Hidden yards and the number
Special teams give Missouri State a quiet edge. The Bears have made 13 of 17 field goals, while New Mexico State has made 7 of 12 and ranks 135th in extra-point percentage. In a game priced this close, a missed kick could swing the result. Missouri State gives some of that back with 67.7 penalty yards per game, 114th, and both coverage units hand opponents strong field position.
The market has held at Missouri State -1.5 with a total of 48.5, and there has been no movement across 25 books. Our model agrees: it makes the Bears a 1.13-point favorite with a 53.0% chance to win, and it projects a 25.1 to 23.9 score. Its first-half spread is essentially level at -0.02.
Where the money is on New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico State Aggies: 38% of bets, 11% of the money; Missouri State Bears: 62% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri State Bears -1.5: 38% of bets, 35% of the money; New Mexico State Aggies +1.5: 63% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 67% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 48.5: 33% of bets, 4% of the money.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears stats (this season)
| Stat | New Mexico State Aggies | Missouri State Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Points per game | 20.7 (117th of 138) | 23.9 (98th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 (77th of 138) | 30.0 (112th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.54 (93rd of 138) | 5.67 (83rd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.37 (57th of 138) | 6.07 (116th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 200.0 (102nd of 138) | 232.7 (64th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.9 (85th of 138) | 124.3 (113th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.9% (59th of 138) | 36.6% (100th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.89 (131st of 138) | 1.22 (62nd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.11 (72nd of 138) | 1.11 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.010 (128th of 138) | 0.068 (102nd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.089 (73rd of 138) | 0.216 (126th of 138) |
Key players
- James Jones (New Mexico State): Has 940 rushing yards at 6.1 per carry and faces a run defense ranked 128th in line yards allowed.
- Trey Hedden (New Mexico State): Threw for 256 yards against Liberty but has 8 interceptions this season, and his start isn't confirmed.
- AJ Williams III (New Mexico State): Has scored 4 touchdowns in his last three games, including 150 yards against Liberty.
- Sone Aupiu (New Mexico State): Leads a disruptive front with 9.5 tackles for loss this season.
- Henry Belin IV (Missouri State): Has averaged 8.5 yards per attempt over his last three starts.
- Isaiah Myers (Missouri State): The Bears' big-play threat, with 940 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in eight games.
- Jmariyae Robinson (Missouri State): Leads the team with 50 catches and has topped 90 yards in two of his last three games.
- Tim Brantley Jr. (Missouri State): Has 3.0 sacks in his last three games, including two at FIU.
Numbers that matter
| Missouri State line yards allowed | 128th | The Bears' front gets pushed back, which gives James Jones room to run. |
|---|---|---|
| NMSU turnovers per game | 1.89 | Ranks 131st in FBS, the biggest threat to the Aggies covering a short number. |
| Isaiah Myers receiving yards | 940 | Missouri State's best weapon against an Aggies pass defense that ranks 38th in EPA allowed. |
| NMSU field goals | 7/12 | Unreliable kicking matters in a game priced at 1.5 points. |
| Missouri State rushing EPA rank | 123rd | The Bears can't lean on the run against a defense ranked 37th in stuff rate. |
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears: quick answers
Who is favored in New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears?
Missouri State is favored by 1.5 points (Missouri State -1.5).
What is the over/under for New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Where is New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears played?
Plaster Sports Complex.
Where is the money on New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico State Aggies: 38% of bets, 11% of the money; Missouri State Bears: 62% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri State Bears -1.5: 38% of bets, 35% of the money; New Mexico State Aggies +1.5: 63% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 67% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 48.5: 33% of bets, 4% of the money.