Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights prediction: Nebraska's run game should find room as Rutgers runs out of bodies

A bowl ticket on the ground

Nebraska needs one more win to become bowl-eligible, and it has lost four straight trying to get it. Rutgers, at 2-7 and beaten up at nearly every position, offers a chance to stop the bleeding with the one thing the Huskers still do well.

That thing is running the ball. Nebraska ranks 7th in rushing EPA per play (expected points added on each carry) and 32nd in line yards, a measure of how far the blockers push the pile before the back has to make someone miss. Rutgers is 125th in rushing EPA allowed and gives up 186.3 rushing yards a game. Its front rarely blows a play up: a havoc rate of 12.2% (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) ranks 128th.

It has gotten worse lately. Over its last three games, Rutgers allowed 33.7 points a game and a 48.0% success rate. The secondary is also short, with safeties Chris Joines and Kaj Sanders and cornerback Zahmir Dawud all out.

Jamal Rule is the back to feed. He averages 6.0 yards a carry this season and handled 13 and 15 carries in the last two games. Our projection puts Nebraska at 218 rushing yards, above its season average of 181.7.

Nebraska's offense, mid-reset

Nebraska started 5-0, and the slide since traces to the offense. Against Oregon, Washington and Illinois, the Huskers averaged 12.3 points with a 37.9% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule). Rhule is reported to have fired Dana Holgorsen after another stalled showing, so Saturday offers the first look at what comes next.

Anthony Colandrea averaged 5.9 yards per attempt with 4 interceptions in that stretch. Three came against Washington. At Illinois he completed 74.4% of his passes for 284 yards without a pick, though a long scramble was wiped out by a holding flag.

The losses to Washington and Illinois came as favorites, and Nebraska failed to cover both. History leans its way here: Nebraska has won the last five meetings, and the last trip to Piscataway ended 14-13 Nebraska.

Who throws for Rutgers?

Dylan Lonergan will miss a third straight game; he has had three concussions this season. AJ Surace, who our projection lists as the starter, is questionable, and Rutgers hasn't confirmed who will take the first snap. KJ Duff, the top target with 774 yards and 9 touchdowns, is done after ankle surgery.

The protection is thinning too. Lineman Kwabena Asamoah is out for the season and left guard Tyler Needham is doubtful. Rutgers allows 2.78 sacks per game, 121st nationally. Nebraska ranks 20th in sacks per game, and Jahsear Whittington has 4.5 of them. The Huskers are also 1st in third-down defense, allowing conversions 25.4% of the time.

Rutgers' path to covering runs through big plays. Its offense ranks 19th in explosiveness (average EPA on successful plays), while Nebraska is 103rd in explosiveness allowed. Jourdin Houston's 80-yard touchdown against Michigan is the template. Nebraska will be without linebacker Owen Chambliss and cornerback Andrew Marshall.

Kicks, the line, our number

The biggest threat to a Nebraska cover may be its own kicking. The Huskers have made 5 of 12 field goals. That 41.7% rate ranks 136th nationally, and they missed from 45 and 54 yards at Illinois. Rutgers has made 9 of 10, though kicker Dane Pizzarro is questionable.

The line opened at 13.5 and has moved to 15 toward Nebraska. Our model makes it Nebraska by 15.8, with a fair total of 52 that matches the market. It gives Rutgers a 16% chance to win.

If you want a correlated angle, it points to the ground. When favorites cover, their rushing tends to go over its line, which fits a script built on Rule and a Rutgers front that can't hold up.