Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction: Missouri's stalled run game heads into Georgia's front at Sanford
Jamal Roberts carried Missouri to 6-3, but a blocking unit that can't create push now faces one of the country's best run defenses, and the line has climbed past two touchdowns.
| Spread | Georgia -16 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 47.5 |
- Georgia grinds out efficient drives while Missouri's run game stalls, leaving Austin Simmons to throw into a pass rush that ranks 6th in sacks.
- Missouri's offensive line, 96th in line yards per carry, against a Georgia defense that ranks 5th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our number makes Georgia a 16.52-point favorite, almost exactly the market's 16, with a fair total of 47.35.
Missouri's ground game hits a wall
Missouri has spent the past month finding out how hard it is to move the ball against the SEC's best. The Tigers averaged 19.0 points over their last three games, and the Texas loss essentially ended their College Football Playoff hopes. Now No. 22 Missouri visits No. 1 Georgia, a program it hasn't beaten since 2013.
Jamal Roberts drives this offense. He has 1,071 rushing yards on the season, but he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the last three games, and he managed 39 yards on 20 carries at Ole Miss. The blocking explains most of it. Missouri ranks 96th of 138 in line yards per carry, a measure of the push the line creates before a back reaches the second level. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, sits at 40.5%, 94th nationally. Over the last three games that figure fell to 36.4%.
Georgia's front is built to punish exactly that. The Bulldogs rank 5th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) and allow 84.4 rushing yards per game, 6th in the country. Missouri will also be without lineman Josh Atkins, tight end Gavin Hoffman and running back Malae Fonoti.
Simmons has to win from the pocket
If the run stalls, the game falls to Austin Simmons, a pocket passer in an up-tempo, pass-first system. His season line is tidy: 18 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions. His recent form is not. Over the last three games he completed 57.6% of his throws at 6.5 yards per attempt.
His protection has been a real strength. Missouri allows 0.89 sacks per game, 8th nationally. That unit now faces a Georgia defense averaging 3.44 sacks per game, 6th in the country, although the Bulldogs will be without outside linebacker Amaris Williams (knee).
The Georgia secondary carries a question of its own. Cornerback Ellis Robinson left the Ole Miss game in the fourth quarter with a hip or thigh injury, and Kirby Smart offered no update. Cayden Lee, Missouri's leading receiver, is not on the injury report, and Eli Drinkwitz said there was no structural damage to his knee.
Stockton keeps the chains moving
Georgia doesn't need big plays to bury people. The Bulldogs rank 101st in explosiveness, yet they are 2nd nationally with a 52.0% success rate and convert 52.4% of third downs. They win by staying on schedule.
Gunner Stockton is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, and he threw four touchdown passes on just nine completions in the 42-7 rout of Ole Miss. Talyn Taylor caught three of them for 140 yards.
Missouri's defense is good at blowing up plays. Its havoc rate, the share of snaps ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, is 19.7%, 11th nationally. The weakness shows when it misses: Missouri ranks 99th in explosiveness allowed and 107th in passing yards allowed. Georgia has some wear up front, too. Center Drew Bobo has been heavily limited in practice but is expected to play, receiver Craig Dandridge did not finish the Ole Miss game with a hamstring injury, and Smart called back Chauncey Bowens "not 100%."
Finishing drives and kicking
The scoreboard gap shows up inside the 40. Georgia scores 4.88 points per scoring opportunity, 5th nationally. Missouri manages 3.44, 94th.
The kicking adds to Missouri's problem. The Tigers have made 15 of 23 field goals, 112th in field-goal percentage, and Blake Craig missed kicks against both Ole Miss and Texas.
Missouri's path to covering runs through hidden yards. It commits 0.67 turnovers per game, 10th nationally, and its average starting field position ranks 9th. A short field and a clean game are how a 16-point underdog stays close.
The market leans further toward Georgia
Georgia opened as a 12.5-point favorite and now sits at 16 across 27 books. The Bulldogs are 7-2 against the spread, although a 27-24 home loss to Auburn as a 19.5-point favorite shows they can slip. Missouri is 4-5 against the number. Smart is 4-0 against Drinkwitz.
Our model lands at Georgia by 16.52 and gives the Bulldogs an 85.0% chance to win, so it agrees with the move. For correlated angles, our tests find that a favorite's cover tends to go with its rushing going over, and with the underdog's passing going under. That fits this script: Georgia is projected for 150 rushing yards.
Where the money is on Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Missouri Tigers: 32% of bets, 8% of the money; Georgia Bulldogs: 68% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Georgia Bulldogs -16.5: 64% of bets, 75% of the money; Missouri Tigers +16.5: 36% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 69% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 47.5: 31% of bets, 10% of the money.
Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs stats (this season)
| Stat | Missouri Tigers | Georgia Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 8-1 |
| Points per game | 30.2 (53rd of 138) | 41.1 (5th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1 (34th of 138) | 14.0 (7th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.10 (42nd of 138) | 7.35 (6th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93 (27th of 138) | 4.23 (4th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 254.7 (34th of 138) | 243.6 (44th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.7 (61st of 138) | 210.7 (16th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.1% (81st of 138) | 52.4% (6th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 (10th of 138) | 1.00 (37th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 (18th of 138) | 1.89 (10th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.158 (56th of 138) | 0.317 (8th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.021 (37th of 138) | -0.019 (26th of 138) |
Key players
- Jamal Roberts (Missouri): He has 1,071 rushing yards this season but averaged 3.9 per carry over the last three games.
- Austin Simmons (Missouri): He has thrown 18 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, though he completed 57.6% of his passes over the last three games.
- Cayden Lee (Missouri): He leads the team with 60 catches for 809 yards and is expected to play.
- Daeden Hopkins (Missouri): He has 7.0 sacks on the season but none in his last three games.
- Gunner Stockton (Georgia): He is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with 20 touchdown passes.
- Talyn Taylor (Georgia): He torched Ole Miss for 140 yards and three touchdowns.
- Nate Frazier (Georgia): He ran for 107 yards against Ole Miss and has 6 rushing touchdowns.
- Chris Cole (Georgia): He leads the front with 10.5 tackles for loss, including 2.5 sacks in the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Missouri line yards per carry rank | 96th | The Tigers' line struggles to create push, and Georgia ranks 5th in rushing EPA allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia success rate | 52.0% | That ranks 2nd nationally and explains how Georgia moves the ball without leaning on big plays. |
| Missouri points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | Ranked 94th, it trails Georgia's 4.88 by a wide margin inside the 40. |
| Missouri field-goal percentage rank | 112th | The Tigers have made 15 of 23 field goals, and Blake Craig missed in each of the last two losses. |
| Current spread | -16.0 | Georgia opened at -12.5, and our fair line of -16.52 sits right on top of the current price. |
Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs: quick answers
Who is favored in Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?
Georgia is favored by 16 points (Georgia -16).
What is the over/under for Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?
The total is 47.5 points.
When is Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs played?
Sanford Stadium.
Where is the money on Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Missouri Tigers: 32% of bets, 8% of the money; Georgia Bulldogs: 68% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Georgia Bulldogs -16.5: 64% of bets, 75% of the money; Missouri Tigers +16.5: 36% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 69% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 47.5: 31% of bets, 10% of the money.