Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks prediction: Michigan brings a new quarterback and play-caller into Autzen
Six days after firing its offensive coordinator, Michigan takes one of the country's best defenses and one of its least reliable offenses to Oregon, needing one win for bowl eligibility.
| Spread | Oregon -11 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 38.5 |
- Oregon's passing game likely builds a lead that Michigan's offense, under a new play-caller and likely a new quarterback, struggles to close.
- Watch Michigan's depleted offensive line against an Oregon pass rush that lost Teitum Tuioti but still has Matayo Uiagalelei and Nasir Wyatt.
- Our number makes Oregon a 12.4-point favorite, slightly past the market's 11, and puts the total at 38.8, almost exactly the market's.
Michigan's Offense Starts Over
Michigan fired offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Jason Beck on Sunday, and Kyle Whittingham has not named a starter for Saturday. Tommy Carr is expected to take the first snap. Bryce Underwood is still expected to play in certain packages, and Jim Harding is calling plays.
The slide made the change hard to avoid. Over the last three games, against Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State, Michigan averaged 13.3 points. Its success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) fell to 36.9% in that stretch. The 15-6 home loss to Michigan State brought four turnovers and five sacks allowed.
Underwood's last three appearances explain the switch. He completed 46.9% of his passes and threw four interceptions without a touchdown. Over the season the Wolverines score 19.6 points per game, 126th of 138, and give the ball away 1.89 times a game, which ranks 131st. Even the drives that move tend to stall: Michigan scores 2.82 points per scoring opportunity, 125th.
Raiola Against Elite Coverage
Dylan Raiola has been steady since Dante Moore's season-ending concussion. Over his last three games he threw for 839 yards. He had five touchdowns and no interceptions in that run, which ended with a 41-28 win at Ohio State as an 8-point underdog. Oregon throws for 285.4 yards per game, 14th in the country, and Dakorien Moore has seven touchdown catches.
This is the hardest coverage unit Raiola has faced in weeks. Michigan allows 154.8 passing yards per game, fourth nationally, and ranks fourth in EPA allowed per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap helps an offense score). Two caveats cut into that. Michigan's FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 2.2, while Oregon's average 15.5, so the Wolverines' numbers came against softer offenses. The secondary is also thin: Nate Marshall is suspended and safety Rod Moore is questionable.
A Patched Line, a Thinned Rush
Michigan's offensive line is shorthanded. Andrew Sprague and Ace Hamilton are out, Blake Frazier is doubtful and Brady Norton is questionable. The line was already giving up havoc (plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup) on 17.0% of snaps, 109th.
Oregon's rush lost its most productive piece when Teitum Tuioti went down for the season at Ohio State. He finished with 5.5 sacks and 9.0 tackles for loss. Uiagalelei matches him with 5.5 sacks, and Wyatt, listed as probable, has a sack in each of his last three games.
Oregon's own ground game won't carry the load. Its line yards per carry (rushing yardage credited to the blockers) rank 129th, and Jordon Davison is out. Dierre Hill Jr. has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last three games, but Michigan's front allows just 2.55 line yards per carry, 16th. Expect Oregon to put the game on Raiola's arm.
Hidden Yards Lean Oregon
In a game with a total this low, field position and kicking matter. Michigan has made 6 of 11 field goals. Its kick coverage allows 31.3 yards per return, 137th of 138. Oregon starts its average drive at its own 31.6, 16th nationally, against Michigan's 27.4, which ranks 103rd. The Ducks' net punting average of 46.2 ranks sixth, so Michigan's offense will often start deep in its own territory.
The Market Moved Hard
Oregon opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is now at 11 across 26 books, with the total at 38.5. The move tracks Michigan's results against the spread. The Wolverines are 3-6 against the number and failed to cover as a 16-point favorite at Rutgers and a 14-point favorite against Michigan State. Oregon is No. 16 in the CFP rankings and is still alive in the playoff race. Michigan needs a win to become bowl-eligible.
Where the money is on Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Michigan Wolverines: 44% of bets, 18% of the money; Oregon Ducks: 56% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon Ducks -10.5: 76% of bets, 59% of the money; Michigan Wolverines +10.5: 24% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 45% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 39.5: 55% of bets, 13% of the money.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks stats (this season)
| Stat | Michigan Wolverines | Oregon Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Points per game | 19.6 (126th of 138) | 34.1 (29th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 16.2 (14th of 138) | 22.1 (50th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.01 (124th of 138) | 6.03 (47th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.26 (6th of 138) | 5.25 (46th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 173.9 (123rd of 138) | 285.4 (14th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.7 (109th of 138) | 135.0 (97th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41.9% (50th of 138) | 37.8% (90th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.89 (131st of 138) | 1.44 (93rd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 (92nd of 138) | 1.44 (37th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.062 (105th of 138) | 0.145 (62nd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.083 (4th of 138) | 0.009 (32nd of 138) |
Key players
- Bryce Underwood (Michigan): He threw four interceptions over his last three appearances and is expected to play in packages behind Tommy Carr.
- JJ Buchanan (Michigan): His 637 receiving yards lead the team by a wide margin.
- John Henry Daley (Michigan): Questionable, he has 3.0 sacks over his last three games and 5.5 for the season.
- Troy Bowles (Michigan): He leads the defense with 72 tackles, including 15 against Michigan State.
- Dylan Raiola (Oregon): He has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games.
- Dakorien Moore (Oregon): He has 254 receiving yards and three touchdowns over his last three games.
- Dierre Hill Jr. (Oregon): With Jordon Davison out, he carries a 6.0 yards-per-carry average over his last three games.
- Matayo Uiagalelei (Oregon): His 5.5 sacks make him the top healthy pass rusher with Tuioti out.
Numbers that matter
| Michigan turnovers per game | 1.89 | Ranks 131st of 138, and Michigan has a new play-caller and likely a new starting quarterback. |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan pass yards allowed | 154.8 | Fourth nationally, the toughest test Raiola has faced in weeks. |
| Oregon line yards per carry | 2.62 | Ranks 129th, so Oregon's offense runs through the passing game. |
| Michigan kick return yards allowed | 31.3 | Ranks 137th, a field-position leak in a low-total game. |
| Opening spread | -5.5 | Oregon has moved from that opener to 11-point favorites. |
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks: quick answers
Who is favored in Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks?
Oregon is favored by 11 points (Oregon -11).
What is the over/under for Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks?
The total is 38.5 points.
When is Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks played?
Autzen Stadium.
Where is the money on Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Michigan Wolverines: 44% of bets, 18% of the money; Oregon Ducks: 56% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon Ducks -10.5: 76% of bets, 59% of the money; Michigan Wolverines +10.5: 24% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 45% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 39.5: 55% of bets, 13% of the money.