Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats prediction: Kennesaw State should run straight through Sam Houston's homecoming
With Rickie Collins questionable, the Owls' cleanest path to covering 7.5 runs through a Bearkat run defense that ranks near the bottom of FBS.
| Spread | Kennesaw State -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 46.5 |
- Kennesaw State leans on the run while Sam Houston, under a co-interim staff, keeps stalling inside scoring range.
- Alan Woods III against the Bearkat front: 195 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.
- Our number makes Kennesaw State an 8.5-point favorite, a point above the market, and matches the 46.5 total.
The door is open inside
Sam Houston comes home to Huntsville for the first time in roughly two years, and it brings a 1-8 record, an interim staff and a run defense that can't hold up. The Bearkats allow 192.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 125th of 138. By EPA (expected points added per play), their run defense is 127th.
That is the matchup Kennesaw State should build its afternoon around. Our projection has the Owls running for 155 yards out of a quarterback-run spread. Alan Woods III has picked up 195 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games, and he ran for 90 yards against Delaware. Sam Houston ranks 107th in line yards allowed, a measure of how much push an offensive line gets on each carry.
This also fits how favorites tend to cover. In our testing, a favorite that covers usually runs the ball well too. A Kennesaw State cover likely comes on the ground.
Collins or Varnes
Rickie Collins is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. He is day-to-day and doing light work at practice. He has thrown for 1,672 yards this season and added six rushing touchdowns, but he has thrown four interceptions in his last three games.
Landon Varnes took over against Delaware after Collins got hurt, and he is second on the depth chart. Varnes went 19-of-37 and threw for 254 yards. Kennesaw State still scored 42 points that day, helped by a running game that didn't need the quarterback to be perfect. Our projection assumes Varnes.
Sam Houston can't finish
Phil Longo was fired Oct. 28 after a 1-7 start. Eric Raisbeck and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay are co-interim head coaches, and Zack Patterson has taken over play-calling. So far the change hasn't fixed the offense. Over the last three games the Bearkats' success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, has fallen to 27.7%. They have averaged 13.7 points in that stretch.
The Bearkats rank 138th in rushing yards per game, so nothing comes easily. When they do reach scoring range, they score 2.27 points per trip, 135th nationally, and they have made only 6/10 field goals. Their one strength is the big play: Sam Houston ranks 15th in explosiveness. Tim Burns Jr. has turned 21 catches into 428 yards.
Landing that shot depends on protection. Sam Houston gives up 2.78 sacks per game, 121st, but Kennesaw State's pass rush is weak too, at 117th in sacks. The Owls rank 113th in passing yards allowed, so Landyn Locke will find some room downfield if he gets time.
Flags and return yards
Neither team is disciplined. Kennesaw State ranks 131st in penalty yards per game, and Sam Houston ranks 132nd. Expect drives on both sides to stay alive on flags.
The Owls have a real edge in the return game. They average 24.5 yards per kickoff return, 22nd nationally, while Sam Houston ranks 131st in kick returns allowed. Davis Bryson took the opening kickoff against Delaware back 99 yards for a touchdown. One short field could cover a lot of a 7.5-point spread.
Where the number sits
Kennesaw State opened as a 7.5-point favorite and hasn't moved across 27 books. The total sits at 46.5. The Owls are 6-3 against the spread. Sam Houston failed to cover against Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State and Jacksonville State.
The series does give the Bearkats something to hold onto. They lead it 3-0, including a 23-17 overtime win in Kennesaw in 2024. Our model still gives Sam Houston only a 30% chance to win.
Where the money is on Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kennesaw State Owls: 52% of bets, 81% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats: 49% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kennesaw State Owls -7.5: 70% of bets, 66% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats +7.5: 30% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 46.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats stats (this season)
| Stat | Kennesaw State Owls | Sam Houston State Bearkats |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-6 | 1-8 |
| Points per game | 25.1 (90th of 138) | 17.6 (132nd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 (91st of 138) | 27.6 (97th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.60 (89th of 138) | 5.10 (120th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58 (78th of 138) | 5.47 (73rd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 232.4 (65th of 138) | 240.4 (51st of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.3 (105th of 138) | 74.7 (138th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.3% (66th of 138) | 33.1% (122nd of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 (77th of 138) | 1.00 (37th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 (62nd of 138) | 1.00 (92nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.074 (98th of 138) | -0.022 (130th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.087 (72nd of 138) | 0.109 (85th of 138) |
Key players
- Alan Woods III (Kennesaw State): He has 195 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.
- Rickie Collins (Kennesaw State): He is questionable after throwing for 1,672 yards with six rushing touchdowns this season.
- Dylan Gary (Kennesaw State): He has 194 receiving yards and two touchdowns over his last three games.
- Ugonna Nwoha (Kennesaw State): He leads a thin pass rush with 5.5 sacks this season.
- Landyn Locke (Sam Houston): He has 13 touchdown passes this season but is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Tim Burns Jr. (Sam Houston): He is the Bearkats' big-play threat, with 428 yards on 21 catches.
- Josh Alexander-Felton (Sam Houston): He has 4.0 sacks this season, including two against Missouri State.
Numbers that matter
| Sam Houston rush yards allowed | 125th | The Bearkats give up 192.3 rushing yards per game, right where Kennesaw State wants to attack. |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston rushing offense | 138th | Sam Houston has the least productive ground game in FBS at 74.7 yards per game. |
| Sam Houston points per scoring opportunity | 2.27 | That ranks 135th, so the Bearkats rarely turn trips into touchdowns. |
| Kennesaw State kick return average | 24.5 | It ranks 22nd, facing a Sam Houston coverage unit that ranks 131st. |
| Fair spread vs. market | -1.0 | Our number likes Kennesaw State by one point more than the 7.5-point line. |
Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats: quick answers
Who is favored in Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
Kennesaw State is favored by 7.5 points (Kennesaw State -7.5).
What is the over/under for Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
The total is 46.5 points.
When is Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Where is Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats played?
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Where is the money on Kennesaw State Owls vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kennesaw State Owls: 52% of bets, 81% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats: 49% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kennesaw State Owls -7.5: 70% of bets, 66% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats +7.5: 30% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 46.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.