Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction: No Johnson, No Named Starter: K-State Faces TCU's Smothering Defense
Kansas State has owned this series lately, but a quarterback room in flux and a defense in freefall run into a TCU team that needs this win for a bowl.
| Spread | TCU -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45.5 |
- TCU's defense, 7th in success rate allowed, should squeeze a K-State offense with no named starter, if the Frogs finish their drives.
- Jeremy Payne returns to face a K-State run defense ranked 109th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our model makes TCU an 11.6-point favorite, 1.1 points more than the market, with a 45.05 total.
Klein's Quarterback Puzzle
Kansas State has beaten TCU three straight times. This week it may not know who its quarterback is until Saturday.
Avery Johnson will miss his fourth straight game while he works through lingering neck and shoulder issues from the Kansas game. Collin Klein has not chosen between Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff, and he gave no timetable for naming a starter. Jacob Knuth, the other option, is out with an ankle injury. Our projection runs through Barnett, but both players are competing for the job in practice this week.
The offense has sagged without Johnson. Over its last three games, K-State posted -0.115 EPA per play (expected points added per play). Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, fell to 34.9% in that stretch.
TCU's defense is a hard place to find a rhythm. The Horned Frogs allow a 33.7% success rate, 7th in the country. They also rank 7th against the run by EPA, bad news for an offense that leans on the ground. K-State runs for 196.8 yards per game, but Johnson's 462 rushing yards are on the sideline. Joe Jackson has averaged 1.9 yards per carry over his last three games, which leaves Rodney Fields Jr. to carry the load.
A Defense Coming Apart
Kansas State has allowed 40.3 points per game over its last three, capped by a 66-28 home loss to Oklahoma State. Klein said afterward that his team was not living up to K-State's identity.
The season profile shows how it breaks. K-State ranks 30th in success rate allowed but 135th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. It gets offenses off schedule often, then gives up big chunks when it doesn't. Three front-seven players are out: defensive tackles De'Arieun Hicks and Eli Jackson and linebacker Sawyer Schilke.
Jaden Craig is the passer to test that. He has thrown for 2,439 yards at 7.9 yards per attempt. TCU's receiver room is thin, though, with Ace Theus, Keagan Cunningham and Cooper Reid all out, so Jordan Dwyer and Kari Ashley will carry the targets.
Payne Returns to the Backfield
TCU's offense has run on one leg. The Horned Frogs rank 128th in rushing yards per game and 103rd in line yards, the rushing yardage credited to the blockers on each carry.
Jeremy Payne, at 4.9 yards per carry this season, cleared the injury report and is set to play for the first time since Week 7. Jon Denman is out, so the carries should funnel to Payne. K-State ranks 109th in rushing EPA allowed, which makes this the right week for TCU's ground game to wake up. Our testing found that favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing lines too, so Payne's yardage pairs naturally with a TCU cover.
Where TCU Gives Points Back
The case against a comfortable TCU margin lives in the details. The Frogs have made 61.5% of their field goals, 118th nationally. They score 3.25 points per scoring opportunity, 113th, so trips inside the 40 often end with less than a touchdown.
Ball security is another worry: TCU turns it over 1.67 times per game. K-State may not cash in, since its 0.78 takeaways per game rank 124th. TCU also carries the memory of Arizona, where it led by eight with under two minutes left before Ed Small muffed an onside kick and the Frogs lost by one.
Line Moving Toward TCU
The market opened at TCU -8.2 and has moved to -10.5. Our model goes further, making TCU an 11.6-point favorite with a 77% win probability. Its total of 45.05 sits right on the market's 45.5, and its first-half number is TCU -7.2.
The stakes add urgency in Fort Worth. TCU needs two wins in its last three games to reach a bowl, and Sonny Dykes is coaching through hot-seat talk; he said he did not notice the boos or the calls for his firing. K-State's league hopes are gone.
Where the money is on Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kansas State Wildcats: 68% of bets, 39% of the money; TCU Horned Frogs: 32% of bets, 61% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: TCU Horned Frogs -10.5: 48% of bets, 89% of the money; Kansas State Wildcats +10.5: 52% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 20% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 45.5: 80% of bets, 84% of the money.
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs stats (this season)
| Stat | Kansas State Wildcats | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 31.3 (47th of 138) | 23.8 (100th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 (89th of 138) | 15.8 (12th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.85 (62nd of 138) | 5.70 (79th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65 (87th of 138) | 4.77 (22nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 218.8 (82nd of 138) | 271.0 (24th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.8 (27th of 138) | 107.3 (128th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 51.8% (7th of 138) | 43.4% (39th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 (37th of 138) | 1.67 (118th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.78 (124th of 138) | 1.33 (45th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.145 (63rd of 138) | 0.098 (82nd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.146 (103rd of 138) | -0.057 (13th of 138) |
Key players
- Rodney Fields Jr. (Kansas State): Averages 5.1 yards per carry this season and took 20 carries against Oklahoma State, so the workload should lean his way.
- Derrick Salley Jr. (Kansas State): The big-play threat, with 233 receiving yards and two touchdowns over his last three games.
- Jayden Bryant (Kansas State): Leads the listed Wildcats with 4.0 sacks, including one in each of the Arizona State and Colorado games.
- Jordan Allen (Kansas State): Has 2.5 sacks over his last three games against a TCU line that allows 2.67 sacks per game.
- Jaden Craig (TCU): Has thrown for 2,439 yards at 7.9 yards per attempt and has four rushing touchdowns over his last three games.
- Jordan Dwyer (TCU): Has 25 catches for 245 yards over his last three games, the top recent target in a depleted room.
- Jeremy Payne (TCU): Returns from injury averaging 4.9 yards per carry, with Jon Denman out.
- Koron Hayward (TCU): Leads TCU with 6.0 sacks in seven games.
Numbers that matter
| K-State offensive EPA, last 3 | -0.115 | The Wildcats' offense has gone negative without Avery Johnson, before facing TCU's defense. |
|---|---|---|
| TCU success rate allowed rank | 7th | The Frogs keep offenses off schedule as well as almost anyone in the country. |
| K-State explosiveness allowed rank | 135th | When K-State's defense breaks, it breaks badly, and three front-seven players are out. |
| TCU field-goal percentage | 61.5% | Ranked 118th, the kicking game is the clearest way TCU leaves points short of a cover. |
| Our fair spread | -11.61 | Our model likes TCU slightly more than the market's -10.5. |
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs: quick answers
Who is favored in Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs?
TCU is favored by 10.5 points (TCU -10.5).
What is the over/under for Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs?
The total is 45.5 points.
When is Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Where is Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs played?
Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Where is the money on Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kansas State Wildcats: 68% of bets, 39% of the money; TCU Horned Frogs: 32% of bets, 61% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: TCU Horned Frogs -10.5: 48% of bets, 89% of the money; Kansas State Wildcats +10.5: 52% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 20% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 45.5: 80% of bets, 84% of the money.