Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers prediction: Isaiah Marshall gets his shot at the nation's softest pass defense
West Virginia gives up more passing yards than any team in FBS, and Kansas's shaky air attack has to cash in while Michael Hawkins Jr. runs wild.
| Spread | West Virginia -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 67.5 |
- Expect a shootout in Morgantown: West Virginia runs through Hawkins and Cam Cook, and Kansas has to answer through the air.
- Isaiah Marshall and Nahzae Cox against a West Virginia secondary that ranks 138th of 138 in passing yards allowed.
- Our number makes West Virginia a 2.57-point favorite with a 67.55 total, almost exactly where the market sits.
Marshall's open window
No defense in FBS gives up more through the air than West Virginia. The Mountaineers allow 322.8 passing yards per game, 138th of 138, and 7.13 yards per play, 137th. Their passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each throw helps an offense) ranks 137th. Over their last three games they have allowed 38.3 points per game.
That is an opening Kansas badly needs, because its own passing game has been the weak link. The Jayhawks rank 90th in passing EPA, and Marshall is completing 55.3% of his throws with 7 interceptions. He returned against UCF after missing the TCU game and looked steadier there, going 21 of 32 with no picks while running for 125 yards.
The deep threat is Cox, who has 446 yards on just 16 catches and posted 145 yards at TCU. Our projection has Kansas throwing for 281 yards. If Marshall hits that, Kansas can trade scores. If he keeps misfiring, the Jayhawks will lean on a run game that has gone quiet.
Hawkins carries the load
West Virginia's offense runs through its quarterback's legs. Hawkins has 924 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns, and the team runs for 263.6 yards per game, 6th nationally. When he throws, it hurts: he averages 10.9 yards per attempt, and he hit Texas Tech for 303 yards on 16 attempts.
Kansas has a front that can push back. Its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) is 23.8%, 16th, and Leroy Harris III had 3 sacks against UCF. The problem comes later in the play. Kansas allows 157.8 rushing yards per game, 88th, and ranks 90th in explosiveness allowed, so the runs it doesn't stop at the line tend to go a long way.
West Virginia will play without tackle Lamarcus Dillard and tight end Cam Ball, both ruled out. That thins the blocking for a team built on running.
Kansas loses the hidden yards
Kansas keeps playing on a long field. Its average start is the 26.3-yard line, 131st, while opponents start at the 31.1, 124th. The Jayhawks allow 28.2 yards per kick return, 135th.
That's a bad fit against West Virginia's return game. The Mountaineers average 21.5 yards per punt return, 3rd in the country, and Matt Sieg's 74-yard return set up a go-ahead score at Texas Tech. Sieg is listed probable.
The finishing numbers point the same way. West Virginia scores 4.48 points per scoring opportunity, 21st, against Kansas's 3.34, 104th. Kansas also turns it over 1.67 times per game, 118th. Those leaks explain how the Jayhawks lost 33-32 to UCF on a touchdown with three seconds left, and how a team rated 64th in SP+ sits at 3-6.
Where the number lands
West Virginia opened at -2.8 and sits at -3, with a total of 67.5. Our model makes it West Virginia by 2.57 with a 67.55 total, giving the Mountaineers a 56% chance to win. That is a near-match, a sliver toward Kansas on the side.
The first half is tighter in our numbers: West Virginia by just 0.4, with a 34.1 total. The ATS form favors the hosts, who are 5-3-1 against the spread while Kansas sits at 2-6-1. Kansas did win the last meeting 41-10, but this West Virginia offense is built differently. If the Mountaineers cover, expect it to come on the ground: favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing lines.
Where the money is on Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kansas Jayhawks: 31% of bets, 34% of the money; West Virginia Mountaineers: 69% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: West Virginia Mountaineers -2.5: 78% of bets, 96% of the money; Kansas Jayhawks +2.5: 22% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 67.5: 83% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 67.5: 17% of bets, 20% of the money.
Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers stats (this season)
| Stat | Kansas Jayhawks | West Virginia Mountaineers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-6 | 5-4 |
| Points per game | 29.4 (58th of 138) | 37.2 (17th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 (71st of 138) | 34.6 (132nd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.06 (44th of 138) | 6.43 (29th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.37 (58th of 138) | 7.13 (137th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 240.2 (52nd of 138) | 217.2 (84th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.3 (24th of 138) | 263.6 (6th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 36.8% (96th of 138) | 47.8% (19th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 (118th of 138) | 0.89 (26th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.11 (72nd of 138) | 1.11 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.142 (65th of 138) | 0.189 (44th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.043 (49th of 138) | 0.250 (133rd of 138) |
Key players
- Isaiah Marshall (Kansas): Completed 21 of 32 with 125 rushing yards and two rushing scores in his return against UCF.
- Nahzae Cox (Kansas): Has 446 receiving yards on 16 catches, including 145 at TCU.
- Dylan Edwards (Kansas): Has managed 42 and 22 rushing yards in his last two games after a 156-yard day against Baylor.
- Leroy Harris III (Kansas): Leads the front with 6.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss, including 3 sacks against UCF.
- Michael Hawkins Jr. (West Virginia): Has 924 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns to go with 10.9 yards per pass attempt.
- Cam Cook (West Virginia): Has 1,072 rushing yards on the season and ran for 149 at Texas Tech.
- DJ Epps (West Virginia): Leads the receivers with 564 yards and 5 touchdowns, including 163 yards against Cincinnati.
- Isaiah Patterson (West Virginia): Leads the listed defenders with 56 tackles and posted 8 against Texas Tech.
Numbers that matter
| WVU passing yards allowed | 138th | West Virginia gives up 322.8 passing yards per game, the most in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas stuff rate | 23.8% | Ranks 16th, the best tool Kansas has for slowing West Virginia's run game. |
| Kansas starting field position | 131st | Kansas starts drives at its own 26.3 on average, a long field every possession. |
| Hawkins rushing TDs | 19 | West Virginia's quarterback is the engine of an offense that runs for 263.6 yards per game. |
| Our fair spread | -2.57 | Our model makes West Virginia a slight favorite, just under the market's -3. |
Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers: quick answers
Who is favored in Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers?
West Virginia is favored by 3 points (West Virginia -3).
What is the over/under for Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers?
The total is 67.5 points.
When is Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.
Where is Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers played?
Milan Puskar Stadium.
Where is the money on Kansas Jayhawks vs West Virginia Mountaineers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Kansas Jayhawks: 31% of bets, 34% of the money; West Virginia Mountaineers: 69% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: West Virginia Mountaineers -2.5: 78% of bets, 96% of the money; Kansas Jayhawks +2.5: 22% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 67.5: 83% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 67.5: 17% of bets, 20% of the money.