Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction: Duke's run game tests Virginia's soft front with Sheppard's health unclear

Where Duke wins this game

Eleven months ago Duke beat Virginia 27-20 in overtime for the ACC title, weeks after losing 34-17 to the same team. Friday night at Scott Stadium is the third meeting in under 12 months. The path for Duke looks a lot like it did in December: run the ball until Virginia proves it can stop it.

The numbers say it may not. Duke averages 209.5 rushing yards per game, 22nd in the country. Virginia allows 152.7, which ranks 88th. Line yards measure how much push the blockers create on a run, and Virginia ranks 86th in line yards allowed at 2.98 per carry. Its rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each play helps the offense score) sits 81st.

The catch is Nate Sheppard. Duke's lead back has 820 rushing yards at 5.9 per carry, but he was limited by an injury against North Carolina, and there's no update on his Friday status. His last two games already showed a change: 3.7 and 3.9 yards per carry, yet 18 combined catches as Duke leaned on him in the passing game. If he's limited, CJ Campbell becomes the key figure. He's averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last three games on light work.

Pribula's slide behind shaky protection

Virginia's offense has stalled. Over its last three games it averaged 16.0 points, and its EPA per play fell to 0.083. Beau Pribula completed 65.4% of his passes on the season, but only 52.1% over that stretch at 5.8 yards per attempt. The low point came at Florida State, where he finished 14-of-32.

Protection is the root problem. Virginia gives up 3.14 sacks per game, 131st nationally, and converts just 33.0% of third downs, 122nd. That's a bad combination against a Duke defense that holds opponents to 29.2% on third down, 10th in the country. Kevin O'Connor has 3.0 sacks in three games and is the pass rusher to watch.

The receiver room is thinning too. Rico Flores Jr. is out, and Kameron Courtney is questionable. Dashawn Martin, with 5 touchdown catches, is the most dependable target left.

There is an opening. Duke ranks 75th in passing EPA allowed, and safety Andrew Pellicciotta is out after getting hurt against UNC. Pribula also knows Manny Diaz: the two overlapped at Penn State when Diaz ran the defense.

Hidden yards lean Virginia

If this stays close, special teams and discipline favor the home side. Virginia's punter averages 50.3 yards per kick, 3rd nationally, and the Cavaliers' net punting ranks 10th. Their kick returns average 27.4 yards, 14th. Duke ranks 111th in kick returns and 98th in net punting.

Duke also gives back yards with penalties, at 73.8 per game, 123rd. And its kicker, Cosme Salas, is listed out, which matters in a game priced this tight. Duke has made 7/9 field goals this season.

Two stumbles and a softer schedule

Duke arrives 1-2 in ACC play after two close losses in which it was favored: 25-28 at Georgia Tech and 20-24 against North Carolina, where UNC scored the winning touchdown with 1:53 left. The Blue Devils' record also came against a lighter slate. The FBS teams they've played average a -2.1 SP+ rating, against 0.5 for Virginia's opponents.

Virginia's recent form is worse, though. It lost 7-38 at Florida State and 13-23 at SMU and only edged Syracuse 28-25 at home as a 14-point favorite. It is still unbeaten at home. Both teams have had six days of rest.

What our numbers say

The line opened at Virginia -2.5 and hasn't moved, with the total at 48.5. Our model prices Virginia at -1.36, so it likes Duke about 1.1 points more than the market does, and gives Virginia a 53.0% chance to win. Our total of 48.28 is essentially the market's number. For the first half, our model makes it a near pick'em with a total of 25.0.