Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars prediction: Washington State's first FBS win runs through a defense ranked last
The 1-8 Cougars rank 134th in offensive EPA, but Colorado State's defense is the worst in the country by almost every measure, and the market has moved hard toward the home side.
| Spread | Washington State -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 65.5 |
- Washington State should run freely against the nation's worst run defense, while Colorado State's big-play passing keeps scoring in the 60s range.
- Owen Eshelman's quarterback-run spread against a Rams front ranked 133rd in stuff rate and last in line yards allowed.
- Our number makes Washington State a 9.75-point favorite, just past the market's 9, with our total sitting on 66.5.
A defense with no floor
Washington State is 1-8, has lost six straight and is still chasing its first win over an FBS opponent. It is also a 9-point favorite, and the reason is the defense arriving at Gesa Field late Saturday night.
Colorado State allows 44.8 points per game, last of 138 FBS teams. It also ranks last in yards per play allowed at 8.24. The Rams sit dead last in EPA allowed, which measures expected points added per play, and last in success rate allowed, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. Opponents convert 52.7% of third downs against them.
The recent trend is worse. Over the last three games the Rams allowed 48.0 points per game. They gave up 49 to San Diego State, 31 to Utah State and 64 at home to Boise State. Defensive coordinator Tyson Summers was let go in the middle of the Oregon State loss earlier this season, and the Boise game included a visible sideline altercation between staffer Shelton Bynum and offensive lineman Toriyan Johnson. This is a unit without much holding it together.
Eshelman gets a soft front
Washington State's offense has been among the worst in the country. The Cougars rank 134th in EPA per play and 133rd in success rate. Their line allows 3.22 sacks per game, 132nd nationally.
The change at quarterback is the bright spot. Redshirt freshman Owen Eshelman has started the last three games, running a quarterback-run spread. Over that stretch the offense's success rate climbed to 41.7%, up from 36.1% for the season.
The protection problem may matter less this week. Colorado State averages 1.11 sacks per game, 123rd nationally. Its havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, ranks 131st.
The run defense is the real hole. The Rams rank 133rd in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. They are last in line yards allowed at 3.64 per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line gets. Washington State's own line ranks 113th in line yards, but it has not seen a front this soft. Our projection has the Cougars running for 209 yards.
Hejny keeps the Rams close
Scoring has never been Colorado State's problem. The Rams average 35.8 points per game, 20th nationally. They rank first in explosiveness, the average EPA on their successful plays.
Sophomore Hauss Hejny was named the starter this week. He has 16 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions. He averages 8.7 yards per attempt and threw for 253 yards and two scores against Boise State, adding a rushing touchdown. His line keeps him upright: 0.67 sacks allowed per game ranks fifth.
Tommy Maher is the hottest target, with 273 yards over the last three games. He scored twice against San Diego State and once against Boise State. Washington State ranks 115th in explosiveness allowed. Its 1.0 sacks per game rank 133rd, so Hejny should have time.
The backfield is murky. The backfield is murky, with conflicting word on whether the Rams' top two running backs are out and whether Mel Brown could play. Nothing has been confirmed. Don't expect free possessions for the Cougars: Washington State forces 0.67 takeaways per game (132nd), and Colorado State turns it over just 0.89 times per game.
Rest and shaky kicking
Washington State comes off a bye with 14 days of rest. Colorado State has 7.
The Cougars' kicking is a liability in a game priced near double digits. They have made just 9 of 15 field goals. Their extra-point rate of 88.9% ranks 133rd.
Colorado State's kick returns average 33.4 yards, third in the country. Washington State's coverage unit allows 16.5 yards per return, 22nd, so that edge may be muted.
The market and our number
The line opened at Washington State -5.5 and has moved to -9. Our model sits a touch past the market at -9.75 and gives the Cougars a 73.0% chance to win. Our total lands right on the posted 66.5, with a projected score of 38.1 to 28.4. For the first half, our number is Washington State -5.83.
One tested pattern fits this game: when favorites cover, their rushing tends to clear its line, and rushing yards go with the over, not the under. Washington State's path to covering runs through a defense allowing 268.1 rushing yards per game.
History leans the same way. Washington State has won the last three meetings, including a 20-3 win at Colorado State last season. Colorado State is 3-5-1 against the spread; Washington State is 5-4.
Where the money is on Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado State Rams: 79% of bets, 67% of the money; Washington State Cougars: 21% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington State Cougars -9.5: 29% of bets, 0% of the money; Colorado State Rams +9.5: 71% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 65.5: 61% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 65.5: 39% of bets, 98% of the money.
Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars stats (this season)
| Stat | Colorado State Rams | Washington State Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-6 | 1-8 |
| Points per game | 35.8 (19th of 138) | 19.0 (129th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 44.8 (138th of 138) | 27.4 (98th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.71 (16th of 138) | 4.68 (135th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.24 (138th of 138) | 5.85 (99th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 274.9 (20th of 138) | 192.6 (107th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.2 (51st of 138) | 114.6 (120th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44.6% (31st of 138) | 34.1% (118th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.89 (25th of 138) | 1.56 (110th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.56 (26th of 138) | 0.67 (133rd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.249 (17th of 138) | -0.050 (134th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.365 (138th of 138) | 0.109 (86th of 138) |
Key players
- Hauss Hejny (Colorado State): Has thrown 16 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions at 8.7 yards per attempt.
- Tommy Maher (Colorado State): The Rams' hottest receiver with 273 yards over the last three games.
- Durell Robinson (Colorado State): Leads the backs with 9 rushing touchdowns, though this week's reports on the Rams' top running backs conflict.
- Oumar Diomande (Colorado State): Anchors a struggling defense with 85 tackles and 2 interceptions.
- Owen Eshelman (Washington State): The redshirt freshman has started the last three games in a quarterback-run spread.
- Branden Ganashamoorthy (Washington State): Leads the Cougars with 459 receiving yards, including 147 against Oregon State.
- Daniel Blood (Washington State): Team-high 38 catches, with 105 yards in the last game at San Diego State.
- Linus Zunk (Washington State): The Cougars' top disruptor with 7.0 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Numbers that matter
| CSU rushing yards allowed | 268.1 | Last of 138 FBS teams, the opening for Washington State's run-first plan. |
|---|---|---|
| CSU explosiveness | 1st | The Rams' big-play offense is why they can keep pace even with a last-ranked defense. |
| WSU sacks allowed per game | 3.22 | Ranks 132nd, but Colorado State's pass rush ranks 123rd in sacks. |
| Line move | -5.5 | Washington State opened at -5.5 and is now -9. |
| WSU field-goal percentage | 60.0% | Ranks 121st, a risk for a favorite laying near double digits. |
Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars: quick answers
Who is favored in Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars?
Washington State is favored by 9.5 points (Washington State -9.5).
What is the over/under for Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars?
The total is 65.5 points.
When is Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET.
Where is Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars played?
Gesa Field.
Where is the money on Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado State Rams: 79% of bets, 67% of the money; Washington State Cougars: 21% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington State Cougars -9.5: 29% of bets, 0% of the money; Colorado State Rams +9.5: 71% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 65.5: 61% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 65.5: 39% of bets, 98% of the money.