Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars prediction: Bear Bachmeier's Turnover Slide Runs Into Baylor's Backfield Wreckers
No. 12 BYU needs a clean game from a quarterback who threw four interceptions at Utah, and Baylor's defense lives on chaos.
| Spread | BYU -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- BYU's run game should carry it at home, but Baylor's havoc defense and field-position edge can keep this one tight into the fourth quarter.
- Bachmeier against Baylor's pass rush: the Bears average 4.11 sacks per game, while BYU allows just 0.56.
- Our number makes BYU an 8.2-point favorite, close to the 7.5-point market line, with a 70% home win probability.
Ball Security Under Siege
BYU spent the last three weeks giving back what it built in October. Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions in the 28-20 loss at Utah, and the Cougars now host a Baylor defense built to take the ball away. Bachmeier said afterward he is "feeling good physically" and dismissed injury talk. His decisions are the bigger worry: he has thrown 6 interceptions in his last three games, most of his season total of 8.
Baylor creates the kind of chaos that punishes that habit. The Bears rank 2nd in sacks per game at 4.11. Their havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) is 20.7%, 6th nationally. They take the ball away 1.78 times per game, 13th.
BYU's line has been the counterweight all year. The Cougars allow 0.56 sacks per game, 4th in the country, and their havoc allowed of 10.4% ranks 8th. If that protection holds, Bachmeier gets clean looks. If Garrick Ponder and Traevon Mitchell win early downs, the Utah film becomes the template.
The cleanest answer is the ground game. BYU's rushing EPA (expected points added per play) of 0.219 ranks 11th, and LJ Martin is listed probable after averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Baylor's front is sturdy, though: its stuff rate of 23.6% ranks 18th.
Lagway Swings for the Fences
Baylor's offense is all or nothing. Its explosiveness ranks 2nd nationally, yet its success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) of 39.1% sits 113th. The Bears don't string drives together; they hit big plays.
D.J. Lagway has sharpened that approach lately. Over his last three games he completed 61.9% of his passes at 9.3 yards per attempt, well above his 53.7% season mark. He also ran for a career-high 119 yards and a touchdown against Iowa State. Gavin Freeman is the target to watch, with 852 receiving yards on the season.
BYU's secondary is thinning at the wrong moment. Wednesday's injury report listed cornerback Isaiah Glasker as questionable and cornerback Evan Johnson as doubtful, though Kalani Sitake had said Monday that Johnson "will be closer to playing." Neither school has issued a quarterback injury listing.
Form Against Schedule
The last three weeks make an ugly picture for BYU. Its offensive success rate fell to 35.5% over that stretch, and the defense allowed 29.0 points per game. The Cougars haven't covered in their last three games.
Baylor is rolling in the other direction, averaging 35.7 points over its last three. Dave Aranda was fired on Oct. 25, and defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is 2-0 as interim head coach. Klanderman called this trip a "proving ground" against Baylor's first ranked opponent.
Context tempers that surge. Baylor's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 1.3, against 7.4 for BYU's. The Bears' last three opponents ranked 64th, 67th and 82nd in SP+, while BYU's recent slate included Notre Dame and Utah. BYU is 20-3 at home since joining the Big 12 in 2023 and needs this win to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Hidden Yards Lean Baylor
Baylor wins the field. Its average starting field position ranks 5th, and its net punting average of 47.2 yards ranks 2nd. BYU's kick coverage is a soft spot, allowing 25.5 yards per return, 123rd nationally, while Baylor returns kicks well.
The Bears give some of it back. They rank 118th in penalty yards per game and have made 15 of 21 field goals. And inside the opponent's 40, BYU finishes: it scores 4.56 points per scoring opportunity, 11th. Baylor's defense allows just 2.47 there, 8th. Whichever unit wins that exchange likely decides the cover.
Where the Number Sits
BYU opened as a 7.5-point favorite and hasn't moved across 27 books, with the total at 48.5. Our model lands close, with BYU by 8.2 and a total of 48.7, projecting roughly 28-20. Baylor has covered 7 of 9 this season, but our number gives no reason to fade the home favorite.
Where the money is on Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars
On the Kalshi moneyline: Baylor Bears: 51% of bets, 41% of the money; BYU Cougars: 49% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -7.5: 35% of bets, 53% of the money; Baylor Bears +7.5: 65% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 78% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 48.5: 22% of bets, 1% of the money.
Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars stats (this season)
| Stat | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 7-2 |
| Points per game | 31.9 (45th of 138) | 31.0 (49th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0 (18th of 138) | 19.8 (31st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.68 (82nd of 138) | 6.34 (31st of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75 (19th of 138) | 4.58 (14th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 276.3 (19th of 138) | 228.0 (72nd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.1 (64th of 138) | 169.1 (53rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.6% (79th of 138) | 50.9% (11th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 (62nd of 138) | 1.33 (77th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.78 (13th of 138) | 1.22 (62nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.131 (70th of 138) | 0.208 (32nd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.063 (12th of 138) | 0.030 (43rd of 138) |
Key players
- D.J. Lagway (Baylor): Averaged 9.3 yards per attempt over his last three games, with 7 touchdown passes.
- Gavin Freeman (Baylor): Leads the Bears with 69 catches for 852 yards.
- Garrick Ponder (Baylor): Has 9.5 tackles for loss this season, 4.5 of them in the last three games.
- Traevon Mitchell (Baylor): Recorded 2.5 sacks over his last three games.
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU): Threw 6 interceptions in his last three games, including four at Utah.
- LJ Martin (BYU): Listed probable after averaging 7.1 yards per carry this season.
- Legend Glasker (BYU): Leads BYU with 703 receiving yards and caught 7 passes for 118 yards at Utah.
- Bodie Schoonover (BYU): Posted 3.0 sacks over his last three games, two of them against Utah.
Numbers that matter
| Baylor sacks per game | 4.11 | Ranks 2nd nationally and tests a BYU line that rarely gives up sacks. |
|---|---|---|
| BYU sacks allowed per game | 0.56 | Ranks 4th, the key protection for a quarterback in a turnover slump. |
| Bachmeier INTs, last 3 games | 6 | Most of his season total of 8 came in this stretch. |
| Baylor explosiveness rank | 2nd | The Bears live on big plays despite a success rate ranked 113th. |
| BYU kick return avg allowed | 25.5 | Ranks 123rd, a field-position opening for Baylor. |
Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars: quick answers
Who is favored in Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars?
BYU is favored by 7.5 points (BYU -7.5).
What is the over/under for Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars played?
LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Where is the money on Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Baylor Bears: 51% of bets, 41% of the money; BYU Cougars: 49% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -7.5: 35% of bets, 53% of the money; Baylor Bears +7.5: 65% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 78% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 48.5: 22% of bets, 1% of the money.