Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction: Without Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State faces Auburn's backfield raiders
Both offensive lines rank among the nation's worst at protecting the passer, and the Bulldogs must now do it with a backup quarterback for the rest of the year.
| Spread | Auburn -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 50.5 |
- Expect a grind decided behind the line: both teams rank 135th or worse in sacks allowed, and both pass rushes rank 32nd.
- Watch Auburn's front against Mississippi State's line: the Tigers rank 16th in tackles for loss and just sacked Arkansas six times.
- Our number makes Auburn a 1.7-point favorite, a touch shorter than the 2.5-point market, and matches the 50.5 total.
A quarterback room starting over
Mississippi State announced this week that Kamario Taylor is out for the rest of the season with a toe injury that needs surgery. The news only makes official what the Bulldogs have been living with: Taylor's last appearance came against Oklahoma, where he threw five passes. In the six games he played, he averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with 17 touchdown passes.
Parker Puckett is listed as the starter, with AJ Swann behind him. Swann threw a late touchdown in the 25-23 home loss to Vanderbilt, but the two-point try that would have tied it failed.
Without Taylor, the offense has stalled. Over the last three games, its success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) sits at 32.5%, and it has averaged 13.7 points. Its EPA (expected points added per play) over that stretch is -0.134, against Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt. The losing streak has reached five games.
Auburn's front lives in the backfield
Whoever takes the snaps works behind a line that allows 3.33 sacks per game, 135th of 138. Auburn's defense is built to punish that. The Tigers average 6.78 tackles for loss per game, 16th nationally, and 2.56 sacks.
They are coming off their best day up front: six sacks and 12 tackles for loss in the 26-23 win over Arkansas. Jared Smith has two sacks in his last three games. A backup quarterback facing that pressure is the matchup most likely to decide this game.
Where Auburn should attack
Mississippi State's defense splits cleanly in two. Against the run it is sturdy, allowing -0.035 EPA per rush, 29th nationally. Against the pass it gives up 0.293 EPA per dropback, 117th, and 251.1 passing yards per game.
The Bulldogs are also thin. Defensive linemen Diesel Moye and Trevion Williams, linebackers Jalen Smith and Derion Gullette, and safety Isaac Smith are all out. Edge Amaree Williams is probable.
Byrum Brown has been careful rather than dangerous through the air, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt over his last three games without an interception. His legs carry more threat: he ran for 122 yards against Arkansas. Auburn's own protection is the catch. The Tigers allow 3.89 sacks per game, 136th, and Mississippi State's rush also averages 2.56 sacks, led by Jaray Bledsoe and Will Whitson with 3.5 each.
Cracks in Auburn's defense
For all the pressure, Auburn's defense has bled points lately. It allowed 35.3 per game over its last three, with a 46.8% success rate allowed, though LSU and Ole Miss were two of those opponents.
The linebacker room is a concern. Bryce Deas is out for the season, and De'Marcus Riddick was listed questionable. Golesh said Riddick and Elijah Melendez started the week slowly, with the hope that both reach full strength by Saturday. That matters against Fluff Bothwell, who has 613 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry and ran for 111 against Oklahoma. Auburn ranks 98th in rushing EPA allowed.
Hidden yards and the number
Special teams tilt toward Auburn. Mississippi State allows 26.6 yards per kick return, 130th, while its own punt returns average 1.0 yard, 137th. Auburn forces 1.56 turnovers per game, 26th; the Bulldogs take away just 0.89, 113th. One Auburn weakness for a close game: its extra-point rate of 92.0% ranks 130th.
The market has drifted toward the home side, with Auburn opening at 3.5 and now favored by 2.5, total 50.5. Neither team has rewarded backers: Auburn is 2-7 against the spread, and Mississippi State failed to cover in each of its last four games. Auburn needs a sixth win for bowl eligibility; this is the Bulldogs' final SEC home game.
Where the money is on Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Auburn Tigers: 70% of bets, 82% of the money; Mississippi State Bulldogs: 31% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Auburn Tigers -2.5: 81% of bets, 89% of the money; Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5: 19% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 16% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 50.5: 84% of bets, 48% of the money.
Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs stats (this season)
| Stat | Auburn Tigers | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 24.3 (95th of 138) | 26.2 (84th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 (85th of 138) | 27.8 (100th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.23 (111th of 138) | 5.86 (61st of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 (55th of 138) | 5.43 (69th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 211.4 (90th of 138) | 247.3 (40th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.1 (68th of 138) | 148.4 (77th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 42.2% (47th of 138) | 39.7% (77th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 (62nd of 138) | 1.33 (77th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.56 (26th of 138) | 0.89 (113th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.105 (79th of 138) | 0.097 (84th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.096 (80th of 138) | 0.124 (92nd of 138) |
Key players
- Byrum Brown (Auburn): He has 607 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns this season, plus no interceptions over his last three games.
- Jared Smith (Auburn): He has 3.5 sacks this season, two of them in his last three games.
- Elijah Melendez (Auburn): He leads the listed defenders with 67 tackles and 10 tackles for loss, but started this week slowly.
- Keshaun Singleton (Auburn): He leads Auburn's receivers with 45 catches for 491 yards.
- Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State): He has 613 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry, the steadiest piece of an offense without its starting quarterback.
- Sanfrisco Magee (Mississippi State): He leads the team with 8 touchdown catches, including two in a 95-yard game against Vanderbilt.
- Anthony Evans III (Mississippi State): He has 61 catches for 711 yards, though just 97 yards over the last three games.
- Jaray Bledsoe (Mississippi State): He has 3.5 sacks, two in the last three games, against a line that ranks 136th in sacks allowed.
Numbers that matter
| MSU sacks allowed per game | 3.33 | Ranks 135th of 138, and now a backup quarterback stands behind that line. |
|---|---|---|
| Auburn tackles for loss per game | 6.78 | Ranks 16th nationally, and the Tigers just posted 12 against Arkansas. |
| MSU passing EPA allowed | 0.293 | Ranks 117th, while its run defense ranks 29th by EPA, pointing Auburn toward the air. |
| MSU offensive EPA, last 3 games | -0.134 | The Bulldogs have averaged 13.7 points over that stretch without Taylor. |
| MSU kick return yards allowed | 26.6 | Ranks 130th, a field-position gift in a game priced this close. |
Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: quick answers
Who is favored in Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
Auburn is favored by 2.5 points (Auburn -2.5).
What is the over/under for Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
The total is 50.5 points.
When is Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where is Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs played?
Davis Wade Stadium.
Where is the money on Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Auburn Tigers: 70% of bets, 82% of the money; Mississippi State Bulldogs: 31% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Auburn Tigers -2.5: 81% of bets, 89% of the money; Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5: 19% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 16% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 50.5: 84% of bets, 48% of the money.