Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers prediction: Deuce Bailey's giveaways could hand Arkansas State a Senior Day upset

Bailey's boom-or-bust arm

Two teams coming off embarrassing losses as favorites close out Coastal Carolina's home schedule, and the game is priced at less than a field goal. The likeliest tiebreaker is the football itself.

Coastal gives it away 2.11 times per game. That ranks 138th, dead last in FBS. The habit decided last Saturday's 21-8 homecoming loss to Old Dominion, when Mario Thompson returned a fumble for a touchdown and Bailey threw three interceptions.

Bailey is the most volatile player on the field. He throws downfield with real success, and Coastal ranks 22nd in explosiveness, which measures how much value an offense gets on its successful plays. He has also thrown six interceptions in his last three games.

Arkansas State's defense struggles at almost everything, yet it forces mistakes: the Red Wolves rank 18th in takeaways per game. Bailey will find room, because Arkansas State allows 0.33 passing EPA (expected points added per play). That ranks 122nd. Whether he gives a possession back while taking those openings may be the biggest swing of the afternoon.

A front that bends everywhere

Arkansas State's run defense is among the softest in the country. It allows 203.0 rushing yards per game, 130th nationally. Its line yards allowed, a measure of how far blockers push the run before a defender gets involved, sit at 3.33 per carry. That ranks 131st.

That is an opening for a Coastal ground game that has sputtered all year, with rushing EPA ranked 114th. Dominic Knicely has been bottled up lately, but our projection still has Coastal running for 167 yards.

The same weakness erases Coastal's biggest protection problem. The Chanticleers allow havoc (tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions and pass breakups) on 19.7% of plays, 135th. Arkansas State creates it on just 12.0% of plays, 129th. Bailey should get a cleaner pocket than he has seen in weeks.

Arkansas State's slow grind

Arkansas State's offense chains drives rather than striking quickly. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 47.9%. That ranks 24th. Its explosiveness ranks 118th.

Coastal's defense fits that profile in an awkward way. It ranks 114th in success rate allowed but 18th in explosiveness allowed, so expect long Red Wolves drives with few chunk plays. Those drives live on third down, where Arkansas State converts 44.2% against a Coastal defense ranked 117th.

The weak spot is the finish. Arkansas State has made 10 of 15 field goals, and long drives that stall leave points on the field. The ULM loss showed the danger: the Red Wolves were 14.5-point favorites and lost 19-17 after Gavin Howard sealed it with an interception in the final minute.

Hidden yards and a home finale

Field position leans toward the hosts. Arkansas State nets 36.3 yards per punt, 129th nationally. Coastal averages 18.0 yards per punt return, ninth in FBS. That matters more for the Chanticleers than for most teams, because they convert only 32.7% on third down. That ranks 123rd.

Saturday is Senior Day and Salute to Service at Brooks Stadium, the last home game of Ryan Beard's first season. Coastal has won the last three meetings, including a 27-17 win in Jonesboro in the most recent one.

Where the number lands

Coastal opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the line hasn't moved, with the total at 51.5. Our model makes Coastal a 0.9-point favorite with a 52% chance to win, and it lands on the same total. That leaves a slight lean toward Arkansas State plus the points.

If Coastal does cover, the likeliest route runs through that Red Wolves front. In our testing, favorites that cover tend to clear their rushing lines, and few defenses invite that more than this one.