Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights prediction: Without Duke Watson, UCF Must Run on a Rising Arizona State Defense
UCF is one win from bowl eligibility, but its best back is out and its line already struggles to move anyone, against a Sun Devils defense that has stiffened all month.
| Spread | UCF -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- Expect a grinding, close game: UCF loses its lead back, and Arizona State leans on Jake Fette and Reed Harris to move the ball.
- Reed Harris against a UCF pass defense ranked 118th in yards allowed, if Fette stays upright behind a line allowing 3.0 sacks a game.
- Our number makes UCF a 3.9-point favorite with a 60.0% win chance, a shade more than the market's 3.
Life without Duke Watson
UCF needs one more win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2023, and it will chase that win without the back who powered its ground game. Duke Watson is out with a foot injury. He ran for 596 yards at 6.3 per carry, easily the best rate in the Knights' backfield.
Landen Chambers inherits most of the work, and he has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over the last three games. The problem runs deeper than the ball carrier. UCF ranks 119th of 138 in line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line creates on runs, and lineman Jacob Maiava is questionable. Arizona State ranks 35th in line yards allowed and 34th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a gauge of how much each snap helps an offense score).
The Sun Devils' defense is also trending the right way. Over the last three games, against Kansas State, BYU and Colorado, opponents averaged -0.123 EPA per play. UCF's defense moved the other direction over its last three, allowing 0.228 EPA per play to BYU, Baylor and Kansas.
UCF's quarterback question
Alonza Barnett III returned from a hamstring injury to start the 33-32 win at Kansas, which Caden Piening settled with a 6-yard catch with three seconds left. Keyone Jenkins, who missed that game with an ankle injury, is questionable, and Barnett may keep the job even if Jenkins is available. Barnett, an offseason transfer, came in as the presumed starter.
The supporting cast is thin, too. Piening is questionable and receiver Waden Charles is doubtful. That puts more on Joshua Derry, who caught 8 passes for 143 yards at Kansas. A win would also be Scott Frost's 30th as UCF's head coach.
Harris against a soft secondary
Jake Fette is Arizona State's starter, and he arrives after throwing and catching a touchdown in the 20-10 win over Colorado. His best target is Reed Harris, who has 907 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. UCF ranks 118th in passing yards allowed and 97th in passing EPA allowed, so Harris has room to work.
The catch is protection. Arizona State allows 3.0 sacks per game, 124th nationally, but UCF's pass rush ranks just 92nd in sacks, so the Knights may not be built to punish it. The bigger drag is third down: the Sun Devils convert only 30.4%, 133rd in the country. Cardae Mack gives them a steadier option, with 4 rushing touchdowns over his last three games.
Arizona State's own secondary is shorthanded. Safety Lyrik Rawls is out for the season, and defensive back Rodney Bimage Jr. was carted off against Colorado with a right leg injury and is probably out for the year.
Hidden yards favor Orlando
Special teams tilt toward UCF. The Knights rank 15th in net punting, while Arizona State ranks 124th, and the Sun Devils rank 131st in punt return yards allowed. That helps explain why UCF starts its average drive with the 19th-best field position in the country.
UCF also finishes. It ranks 31st in points per scoring opportunity, against Arizona State's 74th. The Sun Devils' answer is a reliable kicker: they have made 13 of 14 field goals.
The market and our number
UCF is a 3-point favorite, and the line has drifted toward the Knights since opening. The total sits at 48.5.
Our model lands close to the market, with UCF by 3.9 and a 60.0% win probability, a total of 48.7 and UCF by 1.5 in the first half. One tested pattern fits this game: when favorites cover, their rushing tends to go over. With Watson out, UCF covering likely depends on Chambers finding room against a front that has been stingy all month.
Where the money is on Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arizona State Sun Devils: 59% of bets, 54% of the money; UCF Knights: 41% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UCF Knights -3.5: 36% of bets, 65% of the money; Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5: 64% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 30% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 48.5: 70% of bets, 99% of the money.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights stats (this season)
| Stat | Arizona State Sun Devils | UCF Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Points per game | 28.4 (67th of 138) | 30.1 (55th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 (94th of 138) | 26.0 (81st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.61 (88th of 138) | 5.54 (92nd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21 (43rd of 138) | 5.45 (72nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 248.2 (39th of 138) | 212.8 (88th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.7 (94th of 138) | 146.2 (81st of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 30.4% (133rd of 138) | 35.3% (105th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 (62nd of 138) | 1.22 (62nd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 (92nd of 138) | 1.56 (26th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.050 (108th of 138) | 0.089 (89th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.041 (47th of 138) | 0.073 (63rd of 138) |
Key players
- Reed Harris (Arizona State): Leads the offense with 907 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, including 103 yards against Colorado.
- Cardae Mack (Arizona State): Has 603 rushing yards at 5.9 per carry, with 4 touchdowns over his last three games.
- Jalen Thompson (Arizona State): Has 5.0 sacks this season, with a sack in each of his last three games.
- Julian Hugo (Arizona State): Has 4.0 sacks in six games and gives the Sun Devils a second edge threat.
- Landen Chambers (UCF): Takes over for Duke Watson after averaging 3.0 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Joshua Derry (UCF): Coming off 8 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown in the win at Kansas.
- Keyone Jenkins (UCF): Questionable with an ankle injury after completing 67.8% of his passes this season.
- Tackett Curtis (UCF): Leads this group with 59 tackles and has 2 interceptions.
Numbers that matter
| UCF line yards per carry rank | 119th | UCF's line already struggled to create push before Duke Watson's injury. |
|---|---|---|
| ASU last-3 EPA per play allowed | -0.123 | Arizona State's defense has kept Kansas State, BYU and Colorado below average in expected points per play. |
| ASU sacks allowed per game | 3.0 | This ranks 124th, but UCF's pass rush ranks just 92nd in sacks. |
| UCF passing yards allowed rank | 118th | It leaves room for Reed Harris to work against the UCF secondary. |
| Our fair UCF spread | -3.87 | Our number sits slightly above the market's 3-point line. |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights: quick answers
Who is favored in Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights?
UCF is favored by 3 points (UCF -3).
What is the over/under for Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights played?
FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Where is the money on Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arizona State Sun Devils: 59% of bets, 54% of the money; UCF Knights: 41% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UCF Knights -3.5: 36% of bets, 65% of the money; Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5: 64% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 30% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 48.5: 70% of bets, 99% of the money.