Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction: Keelon Russell, ankle and all, targets Vanderbilt's vulnerable pass defense
Alabama's passing game should find room against Vanderbilt's secondary, but a line that gives up sacks gives the Commodores one real way into this game.
| Spread | Alabama -17.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 50.5 |
- Alabama should win through the air and on turnovers while Vanderbilt's run game, 123rd in rushing yards per game, stalls against a stout front.
- Alabama's protection is the matchup to watch: it allows 2.78 sacks per game, and Russell is playing through an ankle injury.
- Our model makes Alabama an 18.45-point favorite with a 50.5 total, close to the market's 17.5 and 50.5.
Russell against a soft secondary
Two years ago Vanderbilt beat No. 1 Alabama 40-35 in Nashville. The Commodores need two more wins to reach bowl eligibility, and the cleanest way to stop them is the one Alabama does best: throw the ball.
Keelon Russell averages 9.2 yards per attempt this season. Alabama ranks 13th in passing EPA per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Vanderbilt ranks 95th in passing EPA allowed. It also ranks 116th in success rate allowed, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule.
Russell is listed as probable after an ankle injury at LSU, and DeBoer called him day-to-day on Monday. He went to the injury tent in the third quarter there, with Austin Mack warming up, then came back and threw three touchdown passes in a 31-13 win.
The concern is protection. Alabama allows 2.78 sacks per game, 121st nationally. Yilanan Ouattara had two sacks at Mississippi State, though Vanderbilt will be without edge rusher Edwin Kolenge. Alabama has also cooled: its success rate over the last three games is 38.8%, against 46.8% for the season. Tight end Josh Ford is out for the year with a torn ACL.
No ground game for Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt can't lean on the run to keep Russell off the field. The Commodores average 112.2 rushing yards per game, 123rd. Their line yards per carry, the rushing yardage credited to the offensive line, rank 115th.
Alabama allows just 2.41 line yards per carry, ninth nationally, and ranks 14th in rushing EPA allowed. Vanderbilt is also without offensive linemen Gunner Givens and Ted Gregoire, plus running back Evan Hampton. Our projection gives Vanderbilt 78 rushing yards.
That puts the game on Jared Curtis, who isn't on Vanderbilt's injury report while Blaze Berlowitz is out with a broken collarbone. Curtis has thrown 8 touchdowns against 8 interceptions. Junior Sherrill gives him a reliable target with 747 receiving yards. Alabama gives up 239.9 passing yards per game, 112th, but ranks 29th in passing EPA allowed. Yards come; efficient drives mostly don't.
Turnovers and short fields
This is where the margin could widen. Alabama forces 2.33 takeaways per game, third in the country. Vanderbilt gives the ball away 1.67 times per game, 118th.
Alabama starts its average drive at its own 33.6, fifth nationally, so short fields are already part of its game. Once there, it scores 4.68 points per scoring opportunity, eighth. Vanderbilt's defense allows 4.16 points per opportunity, 121st. Short fields plus finishing drives is how a 17-point spread gets covered without Russell needing a big day.
What the market is pricing
Alabama opened at -19.5 and sits at -17.5, with the total at 50.5. The Crimson Tide have struggled to cover as a favorite: they failed against Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M, then covered as an underdog at LSU.
One tested pattern fits this game. When the favorite covers, its rushing tends to go over its line, 33.9% of the time against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. Our projection has Alabama rushing for 132 yards against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks 105th in stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line). If Alabama covers, it likely does so on the ground late.
Where the money is on Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide: 68% of bets, 97% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 32% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5: 68% of bets, 64% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores +17.5: 32% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 75% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 49.5: 25% of bets, 52% of the money.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores stats (this season)
| Stat | Alabama Crimson Tide | Vanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 37.4 (16th of 138) | 23.0 (103rd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 (35th of 138) | 29.4 (109th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.46 (26th of 138) | 5.28 (108th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28 (50th of 138) | 5.63 (84th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 254.0 (35th of 138) | 229.0 (70th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.8 (86th of 138) | 112.2 (123rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41.5% (54th of 138) | 38.4% (89th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 (77th of 138) | 1.67 (118th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 2.33 (3rd of 138) | 0.89 (113th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.241 (19th of 138) | 0.063 (104th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.049 (17th of 138) | 0.143 (102nd of 138) |
Key players
- Keelon Russell (Alabama): Averages 9.2 yards per attempt with 18 touchdown passes, but threw 2 interceptions at Tennessee and is probable with an ankle injury.
- Rico Scott (Alabama): Has 277 receiving yards over the last three games, including 156 against Texas A&M.
- Devan Thompkins (Alabama): Leads the listed defenders with 5.0 sacks, two of them at LSU.
- Yhonzae Pierre (Alabama): Has 4.5 sacks this season and 2.0 over his last three games.
- Jared Curtis (Vanderbilt): Has 8 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions, a risky ratio against a defense that ranks third in takeaways.
- Junior Sherrill (Vanderbilt): Vanderbilt's go-to receiver with 56 catches for 747 yards.
- Sedrick Alexander (Vanderbilt): Leads the backs with 6 rushing touchdowns but averages just 3.9 yards per carry.
- Yilanan Ouattara (Vanderbilt): Has 4.0 sacks in six games, two of them at Mississippi State.
Numbers that matter
| Alabama sacks allowed per game | 2.78 | Ranks 121st, the one opening for a Vanderbilt defense facing a banged-up Russell. |
|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt passing EPA allowed rank | 95th | Alabama's passing game ranks 13th in EPA per play. |
| Vanderbilt line yards per carry | 2.79 | Ranks 115th, against an Alabama front that ranks ninth in line yards allowed. |
| Alabama takeaways per game | 2.33 | Third nationally, facing a Vanderbilt offense that ranks 118th in turnovers. |
| Spread move | -19.5 to -17.5 | The line has moved toward Vanderbilt and now sits just under our number. |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores: quick answers
Who is favored in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Alabama is favored by 17.5 points (Alabama -17.5).
What is the over/under for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
The total is 50.5 points.
When is Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET.
Where is Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores played?
FirstBank Stadium.
Where is the money on Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide: 68% of bets, 97% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 32% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5: 68% of bets, 64% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores +17.5: 32% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 75% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 49.5: 25% of bets, 52% of the money.