South Carolina State vs Charleston prediction: John Groce's rebuilt Charleston finally faces a Division I opponent
Charleston has poured in 111.5 points a night against two opponents with no adjusted rating in our data, and South Carolina State's ball-hawking guards are the first real check on Groce's new roster.
- Charleston's transfer-heavy rotation should control the paint. The question is whether its 74.0% two-point shooting holds up against a Division I defense.
- Watch SC State's DeShaun Jackson Jr., at 3.5 steals per game, against a Charleston offense that turns it over just 12.3% of the time.
- No line is posted yet. SC State covered as a 3.5-point underdog at South Carolina Upstate, and that game went under 148.5.
Groce brings Akron's engine south
Charleston hired John Groce away from Akron in late March after Chris Mack left for South Florida. The roster he built barely resembles the one that went 21-11 last season and finished second in the CAA. Players back from that team account for only 15.1% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group.
The headliner also came from Akron. Tavari Johnson averaged 19.7 points there last season and shot 37.3% from three. He has taken on the lead-guard role right away and hit five threes against Newberry.
The most efficient piece so far is Eli Ellis, a transfer from South Carolina. He is averaging 15.5 points, and his effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 86.1. That pace won't last, but it shows how much shot-making Groce has to work with.
Two blowouts, no real test
Charleston has won both games at TD Arena, beating Southern Wesleyan 111-55 and then routing Newberry. Neither opponent has an adjusted rating in our data. The Cougars' net efficiency of 62.5 points per 100 possessions ranks 8th nationally, and that number rests entirely on this soft opening.
South Carolina State's start includes something sturdier. The Bulldogs won 78-70 at South Carolina Upstate on Nov. 6 after closing as 3.5-point underdogs. Upstate ranked 291st in adjusted net efficiency, so the bar was low. Still, it was a road win over a Division I team, and Charleston has nothing comparable yet. Like Charleston, SC State is a rebuilt roster: players back from last season's 10-22 team account for 29.6% of its minutes.
The paint is Charleston's
The clearest edge is inside the arc. Charleston has made 74.0% of its two-point shots, 3rd in the country. SC State has hit just 43.4% of its twos, which ranks 324th. Center Braden Pierce blocks 2.0 shots per game and gives the Cougars a rim presence the Bulldogs will have to score over.
That puts the burden on Noah Treadwell, SC State's top returner and its most aggressive shooter. He has made only 30.4% of his threes so far but shot 35.3% from deep last season. If he warms up, SC State has a way to keep pace from the outside. If he doesn't, the Bulldogs lack a reliable second source of scoring.
Steals against ball security
SC State's best path to an upset runs through its guards' hands. The Bulldogs have forced turnovers on 28.6% of opponent possessions, 18th nationally. Jackson, a Mercyhurst transfer, comes off the bench and swipes 3.5 steals a game.
Charleston has handled pressure well so far, giving it away on just 12.3% of possessions. That ranks 40th, but nobody has really pressured the Cougars yet. Live-ball turnovers are the one way SC State can manufacture easy points against a team this much better in the half court.
Tempo and the series
Both teams have played fast early. Charleston has averaged 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes and SC State 77, both well above where each played last season. More possessions usually help the more talented team stretch a lead.
Charleston leads the all-time series and won last season's meeting 88-61 at home on Nov. 14, 2025. Only a few players from either side played in that game, so the new rosters will decide this rematch, not the old one.
Where the money is on South Carolina State vs Charleston
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina State: 50% of bets, 8% of the money; Charleston: 50% of bets, 92% of the money.
Key players
- Tavari Johnson (Charleston): He averaged 19.7 points at Akron last season and has made 45.5% of his threes through two games for Charleston.
- Eli Ellis (Charleston): He leads the Cougars at 15.5 points per game on 72.2% shooting from the field.
- Braden Pierce (Charleston): He averages 2.0 blocks and 6.0 rebounds in 17.5 minutes per game.
- Noah Treadwell (South Carolina State): He has taken 23 threes in two games and shot 35.3% from deep last season.
- DeShaun Jackson Jr. (South Carolina State): He averages 3.5 steals and 4.5 assists in 25.5 minutes per game.
- Teon Tindal (South Carolina State): He has started both games and is scoring 8.5 points on 53.8% shooting.
Numbers that matter
| Charleston returning minutes | 15.1% | Almost the entire rotation is new under Groce, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Charleston two-point % | 74.0% | It ranks 3rd nationally but came against two opponents without a Division I rating. |
| SC State forced turnover rate | 28.6% | It ranks 18th nationally and is the Bulldogs' clearest route to easy points. |
| Charleston pace | 80.7 | Possessions per 40 minutes so far, a fast tempo that SC State has also matched early. |
| Last meeting | 88-61 | Charleston won at TD Arena on Nov. 14, 2025, with very different rosters on both sides. |
South Carolina State vs Charleston: quick answers
When is South Carolina State vs Charleston?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Where is the money on South Carolina State vs Charleston?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina State: 50% of bets, 8% of the money; Charleston: 50% of bets, 92% of the money.