Western Michigan vs Southern Indiana prediction: Southern Indiana and Western Michigan both bring broken free-throw strokes
Two rebuilt rosters that combined to miss nearly half their free throws early on could turn a winnable game for either side into a test of nerve at the line.
- Expect a grinding, possession-by-possession game in which Western Michigan's threes fight Southern Indiana's ball pressure, with free throws likely deciding a close finish.
- Western Michigan's careless guards against a Southern Indiana defense whose steal rate ranks 56th nationally.
- No line was posted as of Nov. 8; Southern Indiana covered as a 7.5-point underdog at Evansville, while Western Michigan failed as a 1.5-point favorite.
Nobody wants to shoot free throws
Southern Indiana's last game shows how this one could be decided. The Screaming Eagles lost 78-76 in overtime at Evansville on Nov. 7 after going 14 of 30 at the line. That miss rate is not a one-night fluke. Their season free throw percentage ranks 346th of 364.
Western Michigan sits only a few spots higher at 55.6%, ranked 339th. The Broncos rarely get to the line anyway. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 339th. Southern Indiana draws fouls more often but has done less with them.
Both teams' early numbers include a rout of a non-Division I opponent, so they carry real noise. A bad stroke in November can steady itself. If it does not by Sunday, a one-possession game becomes a contest to see who can make the fewest mistakes at the stripe.
Broncos live behind the arc
Under first-year coach Kahil Fennell, hired in March from UTRGV, Western Michigan has become a three-point team. More than half its shots come from deep, a 3-point attempt rate that ranks 38th nationally, and it has made 39.7% of them.
The guards brought in to take those shots have not found their range yet. Rob Lee Jr. made 40% of his threes on 185 attempts at Lamar last season and is 3 of 12 so far. Tanner Hayhurst shot 46.1% from deep at Southern Utah last season. He is 2 of 10 with the Broncos, including 0 of 7 against Kalamazoo.
Southern Indiana's defense does not take the three away. Opponents have taken 44.9% of their shots from deep, which ranks 112th in volume. If Lee and Hayhurst regress toward last season's form, the Broncos have a clear path to points.
Possessions are the Broncos' soft spot
Western Michigan gives the ball away constantly. It turns it over on 22.8% of possessions, which ranks 323rd. At the other end the Broncos force almost nothing, ranked 326th in forced turnover rate.
Southern Indiana's guards make teams pay for loose handling. Josiah Dunham averages 2.0 steals and Afan Trnka 1.7. Coach Stan Gouard has also called UAB transfer Ari Gooch the team's defensive stopper. Live-ball steals could give the Screaming Eagles easy baskets their half-court offense rarely produces. That offense has shot just 29.7% from three.
Western Michigan can win some of those possessions back on the glass. It grabs 40.8% of its own misses, ranked 71st. Southern Indiana's defensive rebounding ranks 33rd, so second chances will not come easily. Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams, the Oral Roberts transfer averaging 8.0 rebounds off the bench, anchors that effort.
Two new rosters, one old result
Last season's numbers say little here. Western Michigan returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Southern Indiana brought back only three players alongside 11 portal additions. For the record, last season's final adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had the Broncos 274th in net rating and the Screaming Eagles 336th.
The one bridge is Kaden Brown. The senior is back from a season-ending January injury and has hit 11 of 24 threes. Mason Bendinger has been Western Michigan's spark off the bench, scoring 22 against Kalamazoo.
Western Michigan won last season's meeting 88-74 at home. Gouard has said this matchup was requested for years after Southern Indiana moved to Division I. Both teams come in rested: the Broncos will have 10 days off, the hosts 8.
Key players
- Rob Lee Jr. (Western Michigan): He averaged 16.0 points at Lamar last season but is shooting 25% from three for the Broncos so far.
- Mason Bendinger (Western Michigan): He leads the team at 13.5 points per game off the bench with a 73.5% effective field goal percentage.
- Tanner Hayhurst (Western Michigan): He made 46.1% of his threes last season but has opened 2 of 10 from deep.
- Kaden Brown (Southern Indiana): Back from a season-ending injury, he is averaging 11.7 points and shooting 45.8% from three.
- Josiah Dunham (Southern Indiana): He averages 2.0 steals, a key piece against a turnover-prone Broncos backcourt.
- Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams (Southern Indiana): He averages 8.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 17.3 minutes off the bench.
Numbers that matter
| USI free throws at Evansville | 14 of 30 | The misses decided a 78-76 overtime loss and highlight a stroke that ranks 346th. |
|---|---|---|
| WMU 3-point attempt rate | 51.2% | More than half of the Broncos' shots come from deep, 38th-most in Division I. |
| WMU turnover rate | 22.8% | It ranks 323rd, against a Southern Indiana defense whose steal rate ranks 56th. |
| USI defensive rebound % | 79.7% | It ranks 33rd and blunts Western Michigan's 71st-ranked offensive rebounding. |
| WMU returning minutes | 0.0% | A completely new roster under a new coach makes last season's ratings a weak guide. |
Western Michigan vs Southern Indiana: quick answers
When is Western Michigan vs Southern Indiana?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET.