Alabama State vs San José State prediction: Alabama State's giveaways could fuel San José State's shooting show

The ball has to survive

Alabama State's debut under first-year coach Chris Wright ended 97-66 at Texas A&M, and the scoreline only hints at how often the Hornets simply lost the ball. They turned it over on 30.5% of possessions, 362nd of 364 Division I teams. Turnover rate counts giveaways per 100 possessions, and one game against an SEC defense is a small sample. It is also the only evidence this rebuilt group has produced.

San José State is not a pressure team by nature, forcing turnovers at a 19.5% clip that sits in the middle of the country. That is enough. Every live-ball miss feeds an offense that has been efficient everywhere. The Spartans carry their own wobble, with a 21.3% turnover rate of their own, so this could be a loose night on both ends.

Spartans let it fly

Tim Miles rebuilt this roster around shooting. San José State takes 48.3% of its shots from three and hits 39.7% of them. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts a made three as 1.5 field goals, is 61.3%, 39th nationally. Joey Chammaa, the Arkansas State transfer, is 7 of 12 from deep and averaging 21.5 points.

Alabama State's defense offered little resistance in its opener. Opponents posted a 54.8% effective field goal percentage against the Hornets. Their block rate ranks 355th, so drives that beat the perimeter go largely unchallenged at the rim.

A whistle-heavy profile

The Hornets also fouled constantly in College Station. Their opponent free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 77.4%, dead last in Division I. San José State hasn't lived at the line so far, but it converts when it gets there, shooting 81.8% to rank 27th. A parade to the stripe would stretch any lead and stall the fast game Alabama State prefers.

Two rosters built from scratch

Neither team resembles last season's version. Alabama State returns 5.0% of last season's minutes and San José State returns 8.2%, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide here.

The Hornets' hope runs through Mike James, the preseason first-team All-SWAC guard who averaged 21.2 points at Mississippi Valley State last season. He scored 16 in the opener, while McMillan led the team with 17. The supporting cast struggled to finish, and Alabama State was picked seventh in the SWAC.

San José State's new pieces have meshed faster. Mason, a Wake Forest transfer, scored 26 against UTSA, and Minnesota transfer Robert Vaihola has been perfect around the basket. Pasha Goodarzi, the Spartans' top returning shooter, missed the opener with an undisclosed issue, and no update has surfaced since before that Nov. 2 game.

Tempo and the tilt of the schedule

Alabama State played 82 possessions per 40 minutes at Texas A&M, 7th-fastest in the country. San José State also likes to run, and both of its games cleared the closing total.

The question for the home side is consistency. The Spartans routed UTSA, then trailed UC Irvine 51-31 at the break in a 91-79 loss. UTSA rated 339th in adjusted net efficiency and Irvine 118th, and Alabama State lands closer to the first group than the second. The Hornets arrive on 12 days of rest, the Spartans on a week-plus of their own, for a 9 p.m. ET tip in San Jose.