Canisius vs Buffalo prediction: Canisius's vanishing first halves meet a Buffalo team that can't close

The first twenty minutes

Canisius has not survived an opening half yet. The Griffs trailed Penn State 47-26 at the break and St. Bonaventure 43-14, after the Bonnies scored the first 16 points of the game. They average 20.0 first-half points, 359th of 364 Division I teams.

Buffalo's trouble comes later. The Bulls led Pitt 45-32 at halftime on Nov. 5, then gave up a 48-16 second half and lost 80-61. Three days earlier Marshall buried them early, 45-24 at the half. So the question on Sunday is whether Buffalo can build the cushion Canisius usually hands over and then keep it for 40 minutes.

A defense that keeps fouling

The Pitt collapse came with a whistle attached. Buffalo was called for 33 fouls that night, and its opponents are drawing free throws at a rate of 58.1% (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), 349th in the country.

That would be a real danger against most teams. Canisius is the exception. The Griffs are making 51.5% of their free throws, 357th nationally, and Michael Wilson Jr. and Nate Fouts have struggled at the line. Buffalo can survive its foul trouble against this opponent in a way it couldn't at Pitt, though a parade to the line would slow a game Buffalo wants played at its 73.5-possession pace, 102nd fastest.

Threes that won't fall

Buffalo has bet on the three-pointer, taking 52.2% of its shots from deep, 28th most in Division I. It is making 23.7% of them, 331st. Dylan Ducommun is 4 of 18 and Mikkel Tyne 1 of 7.

The better route runs inside. Canisius allows 65.5% shooting on two-pointers and blocks almost nothing. Lorick, a Tennessee State transfer, posted 28 points and 15 rebounds at Marshall and carries a 34.9% usage rate, the heaviest load on either roster.

The glass features two weak units. Buffalo grabs 14.3% of its own misses, 361st, while Canisius secures just 51.7% of opponents' misses, 360th. Only one side can win the rebounding battle, and Buffalo's slight height edge is the only clue, at 76.8 inches to 76.7.

Canisius is no better from deep. The Griffs shoot 20.9% from three, 347th, and Vinny Sigona is 2 of 9 after making 40.1% last season at East Texas A&M.

New rosters, old rivalry

Neither team looks like last season's version. Canisius returns 0.2% of last season's minutes, and Buffalo returns 3.6%. That makes last season's final adjusted ratings a weak guide. Those numbers, points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, ranked Buffalo 197th and Canisius 345th.

Buffalo lost Ryan Sabol to Providence and Angelo Brizzi to North Carolina, and its offense now runs through Drew Steffe, the Southern Illinois graduate transfer. Steffe averages 17.0 points and carries a 125.9 offensive rating, the best of Buffalo's regulars. Canisius coach Jim Christian is 13-51 at the school, and his rebuilt roster has lost by 40 and 39.

This is the 56th meeting in the series, and Buffalo won the last one 71-53 at Koessler last November. Buffalo comes in with 10 days off after two road losses. Canisius has eight days of rest after an 0-2 start against the spread.