Coastal Carolina vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin's cold shooting gets a test against Coastal Carolina's open perimeter

Wisconsin is still waiting on its shooters

Wisconsin is 2-0 at the Kohl Center and still looks unfinished. The Badgers were favored by more than 25 points against both Denver and Delaware, won by single digits each time, and have spent a week and a half hearing about it. Next up is a Coastal Carolina team coming off a 113-52 loss at Duke, with a roster that is nearly all new.

The problem in Madison is shooting. Wisconsin is making 28.6% of its threes, 258th nationally, and 55.6% of its free throws, 339th. Against Denver it went 6-for-26 from deep and 7-for-18 at the line. Last season's team made 78.8% of its free throws, sixth in the country, but John Blackwell and Nick Boyd took much of that shot-making with them when they left.

The ball movement is working. Wisconsin assists on 69.6% of its made baskets, 21st in Division I. That means the shots are good ones and simply aren't falling yet. Coastal's defense has given up 47.2% from three, 362nd of 364. The Duke game drags that number down badly, but it is the kind of matchup that should help a slumping shooting team.

A Coastal roster built from scratch

Justin Gray's roster returns 20.7% of last season's minutes and 14.5% of its points. Last season's Chanticleers held opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times. That ranked 12th nationally, but the players behind it are mostly gone. Last season's numbers are a weak guide to this team.

The new offense runs through Trey Perry, a transfer from Miami (OH). He is using 37% of Coastal's possessions while shooting 38.2% from the field. The help around him has been cold: Darius Washington III is 0-for-7 from three. As a team, Coastal's effective field goal percentage of 40.7% ranks 339th. Before the Duke game, Coastal lost 71-70 at home to Eastern Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite.

Fouls, boards and blocked shots

Coastal's biggest weakness on defense is fouling. Opponents are attempting free throws at a rate of 60.9% of their field goal tries, 351st nationally. That habit could help Wisconsin only if the Badgers start making their free throws.

Coastal also gives the ball away on 20.5% of its possessions, 274th. Second chances look scarce for the visitors, too: Wisconsin rebounds 80.0% of opponents' misses, 27th in the country, and Greg Gard praised his team's rebounding after the opener.

Coastal's one strength is shot-blocking. Its block rate of 17.7% ranks 41st, with center Caleb Middleton swatting 1.5 per game. Drives into the paint won't come easily for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin's thin front line

Sophomore big man Will Garlock hurt himself in practice, missed the Oct. 27 exhibition against Oklahoma State and sat out the Nov. 2 opener. He was labeled day-to-day, and no return timeline had surfaced as of Nov. 2. Gard said the rotation got "out of whack" against Denver.

Nolan Winter came back from offseason ankle surgery and grabbed 14 rebounds in the opener. He is averaging 9.5 boards per game. Austin Rapp shook off an offseason hand injury and played in the opener. Wisconsin is still the bigger team, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.7 inches to Coastal's 77.2.

On the Coastal side, Drew Scharnowski sat out the Duke game for rehab and load management. His status for Sunday has not been reported.

What the betting history says

Neither team has covered a spread yet. Wisconsin failed to cover as a 25.25-point favorite against Denver and a 25.75-point favorite against Delaware, and both games went under the total. The Badgers play at 68 possessions per 40 minutes, 271st in Division I, which keeps scores down. Coastal plays faster, ranking 118th.

The schedule adds a wrinkle. Wisconsin faces Seton Hall in the Bahamas on Nov. 19, its first high-major opponent, so any blowout could mean an early rest for the starters. The 2015 NCAA Tournament, which Wisconsin won 86-72, was the last time these programs met.